FREE 04/29 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a compact 4-game NBA slate tonight, tipping off at 6:00 PM ET and wrapping up with the late game at 10:00 PM ET. The standout matchup from a DFS perspective is Milwaukee at Indiana, sporting the highest total on the slate at 222.5. That game should draw plenty of attention with its pace and offensive upside, making it a key spot to target. Detroit at New York also carries some appeal with a 214.5 total, but it’s worth noting that game could play slower given the Knicks’ style of play.

The smaller slate size means roster construction will be tighter, so identifying value plays and leveraging ownership becomes even more important. While the two higher-total games stand out, there’s still potential in less obvious spots if you’re willing to take some risks. Late swap might not be as much of a factor tonight, but keeping an eye on news closer to lock could make all the difference in gaining an edge. Let’s dive in and see how it shakes out!

Game Environment Analysis

MIL @ IND (O/U: 222.5, Spread: -8.0)

• Pace: MIL (14th) vs IND (8th)
• Off Eff: MIL (12th) vs IND (6th)
• Def Eff: MIL (11th) vs IND (13th)

DET @ NYK (O/U: 214.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: DET (9th) vs NYK (26th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DET (16th) vs NYK (5th)
• Def Eff: DET (9th) vs NYK (15th)

ORL @ BOS (O/U: 198.5, Spread: -11.5)

• Pace: ORL (29th) vs BOS (30th)
• Off Eff: ORL (27th) vs BOS (2nd)
• Def Eff: ORL (2nd) vs BOS (3rd)

LAC @ DEN (O/U: 208.5, Spread: 1.5)

• Pace: LAC (23rd) vs DEN (11th)
• Off Eff: LAC (13th) vs DEN (4th)
• Def Eff: LAC (4th) vs DEN (22nd)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Kevin Porter Jr. ($5,000)

Kevin Porter Jr. is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing plays on tonight’s slate at just $5,000. He’s projected for 31.65 DK points, which gives him an excellent 6.33x value and places him in 37.3% of optimal lineups—numbers that are hard to ignore at this price point. With a solid FPPM rate of 0.99 and a projected 32 minutes against Indiana, Porter has the opportunity to deliver strong production in a fast-paced matchup. The Pacers play at one of the league’s highest paces while ranking near the bottom defensively, which sets up well for Porter to capitalize on additional possessions and scoring opportunities.

The biggest factor here is his ownership, which is expected to be around 41%. While that level of chalk can be concerning in tournaments, it feels justified given his recent performances and role with Damian Lillard potentially limited or out entirely. In Game 4 against this same Indiana team, Porter logged 33 minutes and put up an impressive 43.8 DK points, showcasing his ability to fill multiple stat categories when given extended run. If you’re playing cash games or small-field contests, he’s an excellent building block; for large-field GPPs, he’s still viable but may require differentiation elsewhere in your lineup due to his popularity.

More PG Plays:

• Cade Cunningham ($9,800)
• Tyrese Haliburton ($8,500)

SG - Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,100)

Tim Hardaway Jr. is shaping up to be one of the more intriguing value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,100. He’s projected for 32 minutes in a competitive matchup against the Knicks, which gives him plenty of opportunities to hit value at his 4.89x projection. While his FPPM of 0.63 isn’t eye-popping, the volume and minutes are there—especially considering he’s coming off a stretch where he played 36+ minutes in two of the last three games, including a 30.5 DK-point outing in Game 3. With New York’s defense more focused on containing Detroit’s primary scorers, Hardaway should see enough open looks to make an impact, particularly from deep where he’s attempted double-digit threes in two straight games.

The high ownership (37.9%) is worth noting, as it suggests he’ll be a popular option in tournaments. While chalky plays can sometimes be a concern, Hardaway’s salary and role make him hard to ignore given how much flexibility he provides for roster construction. He also appears in 25% of optimal lineups, reinforcing that this chalk may be worth eating if you’re building around stars elsewhere. However, with his recent shooting inconsistencies—like his rough 5-for-16 performance in Game 4—it’s important to temper expectations and view him as more of a high-risk/high-reward play rather than a lock for big production. If you’re comfortable with the volatility and want to ride the value train at SG/SF, Hardaway fits nicely into most builds tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Mikal Bridges ($5,900)
• Aaron Nesmith ($4,900)

SF - OG Anunoby ($6,300)

OG Anunoby comes in at $6,300 tonight with a strong projection of 34.1 DK points and a solid 5.4x value. He’s expected to log heavy minutes (40+) against a Pistons defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in defending forwards. While his recent shooting has been inconsistent, his defensive upside remains elite, averaging 3.0 steals per game this series, which gives him a nice floor even if his shot isn’t falling. With a 24.1% boom rate and appearing in nearly 29% of optimal lineups, Anunoby is a reliable mid-range option who could outperform his price tag if he finds offensive rhythm.

That said, his 30.7% projected ownership is something to consider in tournaments. While chalky, it’s justified given the combination of matchup, minutes, and value he brings at this salary range. If you’re comfortable eating the chalk here, Anunoby offers both safety and upside for cash games and GPPs alike. However, if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup in large-field tournaments, pivoting to lower-owned options around this price point might be worth exploring depending on your build strategy.

More SF Plays:

• Mikal Bridges ($5,900)
• Aaron Nesmith ($4,900)

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is in a prime spot tonight against the Pacers, and at $11,300, he carries both a high ceiling and strong value. Projected for 63.7 DK points with a stellar 1.59 FPPM, Giannis has been dominant in this series, averaging 33.8 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 5 assists per game while logging heavy minutes. Indiana plays at one of the fastest paces in the league, which boosts Giannis’ already elite upside in what should be an up-tempo environment. With a Boom% of over 40% and appearing in nearly 25% of optimal lineups, he’s worth every bit of his salary if you’re looking to anchor your lineup with a superstar.

At 20.8% projected ownership, Giannis is moderately chalky but not overwhelmingly so—making him a solid play even in tournaments. His ability to consistently post massive stat lines against this same Indiana team (57+ DK points in all four games this series) justifies the ownership and his top-tier Hero GPP rank on the slate. If you can find value elsewhere to fit him into your build, Giannis offers elite floor-ceiling potential without being prohibitively over-owned compared to other studs on the slate.

More PF Plays:

• Paolo Banchero ($9,200)
• Kawhi Leonard ($8,400)

C - Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,600)

Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,600) stands out as a strong play tonight against the Pistons. Detroit has struggled defensively all season, and Towns has taken full advantage in this series, averaging 47.0 DK points over his last four games. He’s projected for 40 minutes tonight, which is crucial at his 1.18 FPPM rate. With a Boom% of 30.9% and appearing in nearly 20% of optimal lineups, Towns offers both a high ceiling and solid value at 5.5x his salary. His ability to stretch the floor (52.6% from three in this series) makes him a nightmare matchup for Detroit’s frontcourt.

At just 11.7% projected ownership, Towns provides moderate leverage without being overly contrarian, making him an appealing option in tournaments. The Knicks will continue leaning on him heavily in this must-win game, and with his recent performances—like a game-high 31 points in Game 3—he’s clearly locked into a significant offensive role. Given the favorable matchup and his ability to contribute across multiple categories, he’s worth prioritizing in your lineups tonight.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($11,500)
• Al Horford ($5,200)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!