FREE 04/30 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 2-game NBA DFS slate may be small, but it brings some intriguing opportunities. The action tips off at 7:30 PM ET with the Warriors visiting the Rockets, a slower-paced matchup with a modest 204.0 total. While it’s not the most exciting game environment on paper, there could still be value if rotations tighten up or if key players dominate usage. Keep an eye on how ownership shakes out here, as this game could go overlooked compared to what’s coming later.

The late-night hammer at 10:00 PM ET between the Timberwolves and Lakers is where things get interesting. With a slate-high total of 210.5, this game has the better DFS environment thanks to its slightly faster pace and higher implied scoring. Star power will likely draw plenty of attention here, so finding the right balance of chalk and contrarian plays will be key. With just two games on the schedule, every lineup decision counts—so don’t be afraid to take some calculated risks!

Game Environment Analysis

GSW @ HOU (O/U: 204.0, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: GSW (17th) vs HOU (18th)
• Off Eff: GSW (15th) vs HOU (20th)
• Def Eff: GSW (8th) vs HOU (4th)

MIN @ LAL (O/U: 210.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: MIN (25th) vs LAL (22nd)
• Off Eff: MIN (9th) vs LAL (11th)
• Def Eff: MIN (7th) vs LAL (15th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Austin Reaves ($6,800)

Austin Reaves is in a great spot tonight at $6,800, especially with his projected 42 minutes against Minnesota. His 5.5x value and 41.1% optimal lineup rate make him one of the slate’s top plays. Reaves has been consistently productive in this series, averaging 33.8 DK points per game over the last four contests while showing a solid ceiling with a 39.8-point outing in Game 4. The Timberwolves rank middle-of-the-pack defensively against guards, which should give Reaves enough room to work in what projects to be another competitive game. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—scoring, rebounding, and assisting—makes him an appealing option for both cash games and tournaments.

The biggest concern here is his high ownership at nearly 48%, but it feels justified given his consistent role and production. Reaves is priced fairly for someone projected for 37.3 DK points, and his tournament-leading Boom% of 28% shows he has upside even at this salary. While he may not be the sneaky contrarian play some are looking for, fading him could be risky given his strong minutes floor and involvement in the Lakers’ offense. If you’re comfortable eating chalk on a player with this much opportunity and value, Reaves is worth locking into your lineups tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Anthony Edwards ($9,100)
• Donte DiVincenzo ($4,800)

SG - Buddy Hield ($4,000)

Buddy Hield is shaping up as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $4,000. He’s projected for nearly 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against Houston, a team that ranks in the bottom half of the league defensively and plays at an above-average pace. With a solid 5.5x value projection and appearing in almost 40% of optimal lineups, Hield’s opportunity to contribute across multiple categories makes him hard to overlook. His recent performances back this up—he’s scored 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back games while hitting at least three triples in both contests, showing his ability to rack up fantasy points quickly when given extended run.

The downside here is Hield’s massive ownership projection (62.3%), which makes him clear chalk. However, given his low price tag and strong role in Golden State’s rotation right now, this feels like justified chalk rather than something to fade outright. His 19.9% boom rate isn’t elite, but it’s more than reasonable for his salary, especially if he maintains his current minutes and shot volume. If you’re looking for a high-upside value play with strong lineup construction flexibility, Hield fits the bill—even if you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere in tournaments due to his high popularity.

More SG Plays:

• Anthony Edwards ($9,100)
• Donte DiVincenzo ($4,800)

SF - LeBron James ($9,000)

LeBron James at $9,000 is one of the most compelling plays on the slate, and his high ownership (73.3%) reflects that. The matchup against Minnesota isn’t ideal on paper, but LeBron’s elite usage and ability to contribute across every category make him nearly matchup-proof. He’s projected for 42 minutes in what should be a competitive game, and with a 52.49 DK point projection, he offers strong value at 5.83x. His recent performances back this up—averaging 55+ DK points over his last four games while flirting with triple-doubles in multiple contests. With a Boom% of 41.67% and appearing in over 61% of optimal lineups, it’s hard to argue against him as a core play.

The high ownership is worth noting, but in this case, it feels justified given his ceiling and floor combination at this price point. While fading him might create leverage in tournaments, you’ll need several lower-owned players to outperform expectations to make up for the raw points LeBron is likely to deliver. He’s coming off back-to-back monster performances against Minnesota, including a 67 DK point outing in Game 4 where he stuffed the stat sheet with defensive stats as well. If you’re building cash lineups or looking for stability in tournaments, LeBron is tough to pass up even as chalk.

More SF Plays:

• Rui Hachimura ($4,700)
• Amen Thompson ($6,900)

PF - Rui Hachimura ($4,700)

Rui Hachimura is shaping up as one of the strongest value plays on the slate at $4,700. Projected for 39 minutes against a Timberwolves team that ranks middle-of-the-pack defensively, his opportunity alone makes him worth considering in all formats. While his 0.64 FPPM isn’t exactly eye-popping, the combination of extended playing time and a solid projection of 25 DK points (5.33x value) puts him in a prime spot to exceed expectations. He’s coming off a strong Game 4 performance where he posted 33.3 DK points, and with his ability to stretch the floor (five made threes last game), he has a path to upside if his shot falls again.

The ownership is high at 50.6%, but it’s not unjustified given Hachimura’s optimal lineup rate of 37.4%. Chalk can be risky in tournaments, but his price and role make him difficult to fade entirely, especially since he ranks second in tournament GPP value for the slate. If you’re looking for leverage, consider pairing him with lower-owned options from this game or fading him in large-field GPPs where his popularity could limit upside. However, in cash games or smaller contests, Hachimura’s combination of price, minutes, and matchup make him a near lock for consistent production tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Julius Randle ($7,100)
• Jimmy Butler ($8,300)

C - Julius Randle ($7,100)

Julius Randle is shaping up to be a strong play at $7,100 tonight against the Lakers. His recent performance in this playoff series has been consistent, averaging 38.1 DK points over the last four games while playing heavy minutes (39+ in each). At this price point, he offers solid value with a 5.3x projection and a 36% optimal lineup rate, which indicates he’s not just a safe cash play but also viable for tournaments. The Lakers have struggled to contain forwards throughout the season, and while Anthony Davis is an elite rim protector, Randle’s ability to stretch the floor and contribute across multiple categories makes him less reliant on scoring alone to hit value.

Ownership is projected at 34.6%, which is higher than the field average but warranted given his role and recent production. Chalk isn’t always bad when it’s tied to a player like Randle, who’s locked into nearly 40 minutes in a competitive game environment with playoff stakes. With his strong Boom% (22.9%) and tournament rank of #1 among power forwards/centers, fading him entirely could be risky unless you’re pivoting to lower-owned options in large-field GPPs. He’s not flashy, but he’s reliable and priced well below his ceiling—don’t overthink this one if you’re looking for stability with upside.

More C Plays:

• Alperen Sengun ($9,000)
• Draymond Green ($6,200)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!