FREE 05/01 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

It’s a short and straightforward two-game slate tonight, tipping off at 7:30 PM ET with the Knicks visiting the Pistons in a game featuring the highest total on the board at 213.5. While this matchup doesn’t scream pace, it does offer some interesting DFS opportunities given the condensed player pool. The second game, Denver at the Clippers (211.5 total), starts at 10:00 PM ET and could be key for late swap strategies if you want to differentiate from the field.

With just two games, ownership will naturally condense around a few key plays, so finding ways to get unique without sacrificing too much projection will be critical. Whether that means targeting secondary pieces in New York-Detroit or leaning into some lower-owned options in Denver-LA, there’s still room to gain an edge. Keep an eye on lineup construction as you build—on slates this small, even minor pivots can make all the difference.

Game Environment Analysis

NYK @ DET (O/U: 213.5, Spread: -1.5)

• Pace: NYK (26th) vs DET (9th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: NYK (5th) vs DET (17th)
• Def Eff: NYK (15th) vs DET (9th)

DEN @ LAC (O/U: 211.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: DEN (11th) vs LAC (23rd)
• Off Eff: DEN (4th) vs LAC (13th)
• Def Eff: DEN (22nd) vs LAC (4th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - James Harden ($8,700)

James Harden ($8,700) stands out as one of the top plays on this slate, and for good reason. Facing Denver, he’s projected for 48.9 DK points and leads all players in tournament rank (1st) with a strong 35.9% boom rate. Harden has been logging heavy minutes, averaging 39+ over his last five games, and his 1.22 FPPM shows he’s capable of producing at an elite level given the opportunity. Denver’s defense is solid overall, but their struggles against primary ball handlers have been evident in this series, which should give Harden plenty of chances to rack up assists and scoring opportunities. With a 5.62x value projection and appearing in nearly 44% of optimal lineups, his upside more than justifies the price tag.

The ownership here is high (45.8%), but it’s hard to argue against it when considering the context. Harden has shown a ceiling in this matchup already with a 60.5 DK-point outing earlier in the series, and while his Game 5 performance was underwhelming, his role as the Clippers’ lead facilitator remains intact. The game environment also supports his case—this series has consistently been competitive with significant minutes for key players like Harden. At this salary, you’re getting a player with both a safe floor and legitimate ceiling potential despite the chalkiness, making him a strong anchor for both cash games and tournaments tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Cade Cunningham ($9,700)
• Jalen Brunson ($8,600)

SG - Malik Beasley ($4,100)

Malik Beasley comes in as a strong value play at just $4,100, projected for 21.0 DK points and carrying an impressive 5.12x value. While his recent performances have been inconsistent, his role remains steady with 26 minutes per game over the last five contests. Beasley’s 36.6% optimal lineup rate highlights how often he fits into winning builds, making him a key consideration in both cash games and tournaments. The matchup against the Knicks isn’t ideal given their defensive discipline on the perimeter, but Beasley’s ability to rack up three-pointers (averaging 7.2 attempts from deep in this series) keeps him relevant as a high-variance option in GPPs.

At 35.3% projected ownership, Beasley is chalky but not overwhelmingly so, and the numbers suggest it’s warranted given his price tag and role. He’s ranked first among tournament options at his position thanks to his affordability and ceiling potential—evidenced by a 36-point DK outing earlier in this series. However, keep in mind that he’s heavily reliant on scoring production, which makes him volatile if his shot isn’t falling (as seen in multiple sub-15 DK point games recently). If you’re comfortable eating some chalk for value, Beasley is a solid play; just pair him with lower-owned pivots elsewhere to balance your lineup construction.

More SG Plays:

• Norman Powell ($5,500)
• Jamal Murray ($7,700)

SF - Michael Porter Jr. ($5,100)

Michael Porter Jr. ($5,100) stands out as one of the strongest value plays on this slate. Projected for 27.7 DK points at a salary that requires just 25.5 DK points to hit 5x value, he offers significant upside in a favorable spot against the Clippers. While his per-minute production (0.73 FPPM) isn’t elite, his projected 38 minutes provide plenty of opportunities to rack up stats. Porter has also shown the ability to stretch the floor with his three-point shooting (42.1% from deep in this series), which could be crucial in exploiting a Clippers defense that struggles to consistently defend perimeter scorers.

At 38.9% ownership, Porter is shaping up as chalk, but it’s warranted given his strong value metrics and high optimal lineup percentage (37.7%). The matchup and game environment also work in his favor; Denver is likely to lean heavily on their starters in what projects to be another competitive playoff battle. While Porter’s production has fluctuated throughout the series, he’s already flashed his ceiling with a 38.3 DK-point outing earlier in Game 1, showing he’s capable of smashing this price tag if his shot falls and he contributes on the boards. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Porter is a solid mid-range play with clear paths to exceeding expectations tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Norman Powell ($5,500)
• OG Anunoby ($6,400)

PF - Kawhi Leonard ($8,200)

Kawhi Leonard is in a fantastic spot tonight at $8,200, especially given his consistent production against Denver this series. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 25.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists while logging heavy minutes—he’s projected for another 39 minutes tonight. With a 1.16 FPPM rate and a strong projection of 45.36 DK points, he offers solid value at 5.53x his salary. Denver’s defense has struggled to contain him, as evidenced by his performances of 55.3 and 57.8 DK points earlier in the series, making him a top play at the position.

Ownership is definitely a factor here, as Kawhi is projected to be rostered by around 41.5% of the field—a significant jump from the average ownership rate on this slate (22.7%). However, this chalk feels justified given his role in the Clippers’ offense and his ability to consistently hit ceiling performances in high-leverage situations like tonight’s game environment. With a Boom% of 30.2% and appearing in over one-third (36.4%) of optimal lineups, fading Kawhi could be risky unless you’re confident in pivoting to lower-owned options with similar upside—a tough ask on this slate.

More PF Plays:

• Tobias Harris ($5,800)
• OG Anunoby ($6,400)

C - Ivica Zubac ($7,900)

Ivica Zubac ($7,900) is in a strong position tonight against Denver, offering excellent value at 5.46x with a projection of 43.12 DK points. His recent performances against this same Nuggets team have been solid, consistently logging heavy minutes (38.5 per game over the series) and producing across the board. While his rebounding numbers have fluctuated slightly, his offensive contributions remain steady, including a 27-point outing in Game 5. With Nikola Jokic anchoring Denver’s defense, Zubac will need to stay active on both ends of the floor, but his consistent involvement in high-leverage situations for the Clippers makes him an attractive DFS option.

Ownership sits at a moderate 23.2%, right around field average, which feels justified given his role and matchup. He leads all centers on this slate in tournament rank and optimal lineup percentage (43.62%), reinforcing his upside potential in GPPs despite not being low-owned. Denver has struggled to contain opposing bigs throughout this series, and with Zubac posting over 39 DK points in three of the last five games against them, he’s well-positioned to deliver another strong performance while providing some salary relief compared to pricier center options.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($11,600)
• Jalen Duren ($6,500)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!