FREE 05/06 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s NBA DFS slate is short with just two games, but both offer solid scoring potential. The opener between Indiana and Cleveland has the highest total at 229 points and should feature a good pace on both ends. Later, Golden State travels to Minnesota in a 210-point game that could also see plenty of scoring opportunities.

With only two games, every roster spot matters more than usual. The higher totals in these matchups make stacking players from these teams appealing, especially since both games have lineups expected to push the pace. It’s a smaller slate, so focusing on efficient scorers and players involved in key offensive roles will be crucial.

Game Environment Analysis

IND @ CLE (O/U: 229.0, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: IND (8th) vs CLE (10th)
• Off Eff: IND (6th) vs CLE (1st) 🔥
• Def Eff: IND (13th) vs CLE (7th)

GSW @ MIN (O/U: 210.0, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: GSW (17th) vs MIN (25th)
• Off Eff: GSW (15th) vs MIN (10th)
• Def Eff: GSW (8th) vs MIN (6th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Anthony Edwards ($9,400)

Anthony Edwards is a strong play tonight against Golden State, especially given his role and recent usage. He’s projected for 42 minutes in a matchup where the Warriors’ perimeter defense can be exploited, which suits Edwards’ scoring ability. His boom rate of 29% and value at 5.4x salary show he can deliver high upside, as he did multiple times in the first round with games over 50 DK points. Minnesota will lean on him more with the playoffs intensifying, and his ability to contribute across points, rebounds, and assists makes him a well-rounded DFS option.

Ownership is high at 55.6%, reflecting the confidence DFS players have in his volume and ceiling. This chalk appears justified given his consistent minutes and central role in Minnesota’s offense, especially since the team is likely to shift back toward relying on him after leaning on their frontcourt in the previous series. At $9,400, he fits well as a core piece in lineups targeting high-scoring games against Golden State’s defensive vulnerabilities on the wing.

More PG Plays:

• Tyrese Haliburton ($9,000)
• Stephen Curry ($9,200)

SG - Bennedict Mathurin ($3,500)

Bennedict Mathurin stands out as a strong value play at $3,500 given his 5.4x value and solid 0.9 FPPM despite limited minutes. His recent minutes have fluctuated around 16-23 per game, but when he’s on the floor, he’s productive enough to justify that salary. Facing Cleveland in a playoff setting, Mathurin’s ability to hit multiple threes and contribute across the board—rebounds, steals, occasional blocks—gives him a nice floor for such a low price. The Pacers will need him to maintain efficiency if they want to keep pace against the Cavaliers’ defense.

Ownership is high at over 70%, which makes sense given his cost and upside as a secondary option on an offense that needs scoring depth. The chalk here seems justified since he appears in nearly one-third of optimal lineups and offers boom potential with his three-point shooting and defensive stats like steals. While his minutes aren’t guaranteed to spike, the combination of price and production means Mathurin is a reliable way to free up salary for higher-priced studs without sacrificing too much upside.

More SG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($8,900)
• Donte DiVincenzo ($5,000)

SF - Jaden McDaniels ($5,600)

Jaden McDaniels is coming off a strong playoff stretch where he averaged 17.4 points and 6.4 rebounds in the first round, showing he can produce across multiple categories. His usage and minutes have been solid when not limited by foul trouble, and at $5,600 with a 0.77 FPPM, he offers strong value at nearly 5x return on salary. The matchup against Golden State isn’t the easiest defensively, but Minnesota’s implied team total suggests a competitive pace that should allow McDaniels to get his touches.

Ownership is high at around 72%, which makes sense given his role and recent production, especially in tournaments where upside matters. His boom rate of 12.4% is respectable but not elite, so while you’ll be on the chalk with him, it’s worth pairing him with lower-owned leverage pieces elsewhere to differentiate lineups. Overall, McDaniels fits well as a reliable mid-tier option who can deliver steady points and has enough upside to justify his price in GPP builds against a decent scoring environment.

More SF Plays:

• Buddy Hield ($4,200)
• Max Strus ($4,500)

PF - Evan Mobley ($8,000)

Evan Mobley has been a steady producer for Cleveland, delivering consistent double-doubles and showing efficiency with 1.2 FPPM at an $8,000 price point. His recent usage and minutes suggest he’s locked into a solid role, especially against Indiana, who rank middle of the pack defensively but have struggled to contain versatile big men. Mobley’s ability to stretch the floor and contribute across categories makes him a reliable core piece in DFS lineups. His 4.8x value and presence in about 35% of optimal builds confirm that he’s seen as a strong play without being overly chalky at 27% ownership.

That said, his questionable status does add some risk, which could limit upside if he sees reduced minutes or sits out. If he plays close to his usual 32-plus minutes, his boom potential remains intact with an 11.7% chance for a high ceiling performance. The Cavaliers-Pacers game doesn’t project as one of the highest-scoring affairs on the slate, so expect steady rather than explosive output from Mobley. Overall, he fits well as a balanced DFS option who offers both floor and upside for tournaments while providing leverage over more popular guards or wings priced similarly.

More PF Plays:

• Jimmy Butler ($8,600)
• Pascal Siakam ($7,200)

C - Rudy Gobert ($5,900)

Rudy Gobert stands out at $5,900 with strong recent playoff production, especially his 27 points and 24 rebounds in Game 5 against the Lakers. While his regular season fantasy output hasn’t been flashy, Gobert’s ability to dominate the glass and rack up blocks gives him a reliable floor. The matchup against Golden State is solid—Warriors don’t have a traditional center who can consistently limit Gobert’s rebounding or rim protection impact. His boom rate near 20% combined with a high value of 5.3x suggests he can deliver big games without commanding a top-tier salary.

Ownership around 28% is reasonable given his profile as a low-risk, high-floor option with upside in a potential pace-up environment. He appears in over a third of optimal lineups, which aligns with his role as a core GPP play rather than a contrarian pivot. With projected minutes north of 30, Gobert offers steady production that pairs well with higher-priced stars elsewhere on your roster. At this price and matchup, he’s one of the safer plays to anchor your DFS builds tonight.

More C Plays:

• Myles Turner ($6,200)
• Jarrett Allen ($6,500)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!