FREE 1/25 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

It’s a busy nine-game slate tonight, with some intriguing spots to break down for DFS. Two games stand out from a totals perspective: Utah at Memphis (247.5) and Toronto at Atlanta (234.0). Both matchups project to be high-paced, high-scoring environments, making them prime targets for stacking. On the flip side, there are a handful of slower-paced, lower-total games that could lead to some sneaky value plays if the field overlooks them.

Tonight’s lineup-building process could easily turn into a Hornets showcase, with value plays and upside across every position. However, to keep things fresh and highlight other standout options, we’ve mixed in players from different teams who can make an impact.

Game Environment Analysis

DET @ ORL (O/U: 209.0, Spread: -3.0)

• Pace: DET (15th) vs ORL (30th)
• Off Eff: DET (20th) vs ORL (29th)
• Def Eff: DET (13th) vs ORL (4th)

NOP @ CHA (O/U: 231.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: NOP (16th) vs CHA (21st)
• Off Eff: NOP (25th) vs CHA (28th)
• Def Eff: NOP (27th) 🎯 vs CHA (18th)

TOR @ ATL (O/U: 234.0, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: TOR (11th) vs ATL (3rd)
• Off Eff: TOR (22nd) vs ATL (18th)
• Def Eff: TOR (28th) 🎯 vs ATL (19th)

HOU @ CLE (O/U: 229.0, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: HOU (17th) vs CLE (6th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: HOU (16th) vs CLE (1st)
• Def Eff: HOU (3rd) vs CLE (9th)

SAC @ NYK (O/U: 231.0, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: SAC (8th) vs NYK (28th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAC (6th) 🔥 vs NYK (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: SAC (16th) vs NYK (17th)

PHI @ CHI (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -4.0)

• Pace: PHI (29th) vs CHI (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: PHI (24th) vs CHI (13th)
• Def Eff: PHI (21st) vs CHI (23rd)

UTA @ MEM (O/U: 247.5, Spread: -12.0)

• Pace: UTA (13th) vs MEM (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: UTA (21st) vs MEM (5th) 🔥
• Def Eff: UTA (29th) 🎯 vs MEM (5th)

LAL @ GSW (O/U: 218.5, Spread: -1.0)

• Pace: LAL (22nd) vs GSW (14th)
• Off Eff: LAL (12th) vs GSW (19th)
• Def Eff: LAL (20th) vs GSW (10th)

WAS @ PHX (O/U: 234.0, Spread: -14.0)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs PHX (23rd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs PHX (9th) 🔥
• Def Eff: WAS (30th) 🎯 vs PHX (24th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - LaMelo Ball ($10,200)

LaMelo Ball ($10,200) is in a strong spot tonight against the Pelicans, and while his price tag is hefty, the numbers suggest he’s worth it. With a stellar 1.61 FPPM and a projection of 57.8 DK points, he offers elite upside for GPPs, ranking third overall in tournament appeal. His 39.9% Boom Rate and 22% Optimal Lineup percentage highlight his potential to crush value at a solid 5.7x return on salary. Ball is projected for 36 minutes in what should be a competitive game with a team total of 114.5 for Charlotte, giving him ample opportunity to fill up the stat sheet as the offensive engine.

Ownership is something to keep an eye on here, as Ball is expected to be rostered by over 35% of the field. While that makes him more of a chalk play, his ceiling justifies it—especially in this matchup against New Orleans’ inconsistent backcourt defense. Recent performances show his ability to push past 50 DK points even on inefficient shooting nights, thanks to his elite playmaking and rebounding contributions. If you’re looking for high-end guard exposure tonight, Ball is one of the safest bets with legitimate tournament-winning upside.

More PG Plays:

• Devin Booker ($9,000)
• Jordan Poole ($6,700)
• Scottie Barnes ($9,000)

SG - Jordan Poole ($6,700)

Jordan Poole comes in at $6,700 tonight in a matchup against the Suns, and while his recent shooting struggles are concerning, he still offers strong tournament appeal. Poole is projected for 36.6 DK points with a solid 5.5x value, making him one of the better mid-range options on the slate. His 1.14 FPPM production and expected 32 minutes on the court give him a stable floor, but what makes him intriguing is his upside—evidenced by his 45.5 DK-point outing just two games ago. The Suns rank middle of the pack defensively, and with Washington likely playing from behind (game total: 110.25), Poole should continue to shoulder significant offensive responsibility.

Ownership-wise, Poole is projected to be around 20.6% rostered, which keeps him in play for tournaments without being overly chalky. His Boom% of 26.1% and appearance in nearly 19% of optimal lineups suggest he’s a viable GPP option if you’re looking for scoring upside at this price point. While his inefficiency from the field could limit his ceiling on an off night, his high usage and ability to rack up peripheral stats like assists and steals give him multiple paths to value. If he finds his shot tonight, he could easily outperform expectations in this spot.

More SG Plays:

• Devin Booker ($9,000)
• Paul George ($8,200)
• Nick Smith Jr. ($4,600)

SF - Nick Smith Jr. ($4,600)

Nick Smith Jr. ($4,600) stands out as a strong value play tonight against the Pelicans, projected for 28 DraftKings points at an impressive 6.1x value. With Charlotte’s roster thinned out and Smith stepping into an expanded role, he’s averaging over 30 minutes per game in his last four contests. While his efficiency has been hit-or-miss, the volume is there—he’s taken double-digit shot attempts in four straight games—and his ability to contribute across multiple categories (points, assists, rebounds) gives him a solid floor for this price point. New Orleans isn’t particularly intimidating defensively against guards, making this a favorable spot to target.

Ownership is worth keeping an eye on here, as Smith is expected to be rostered by roughly 28% of the field. While that limits his appeal in smaller tournaments where leverage is key, his 14.2% optimal lineup rate and nearly 30% Boom percentage suggest he has legitimate upside for larger-field GPPs. The game environment also helps—Charlotte is projected for a respectable 114.5 points—and with Smith likely seeing upwards of 30 minutes again tonight, he’s well-positioned to return value if he can continue capitalizing on increased usage.

More SF Plays:

• Paul George ($8,200)
• Scottie Barnes ($9,000)
• RJ Barrett ($7,800)

PF - Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,000)

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,000) is in a strong spot tonight against the Utah Jazz, who rank in the bottom third of the league defensively against bigs. With a 1.42 FPPM rate and a projection of 42.6 DK points, he offers solid value at 5.3x his salary. The game total of 129.5 suggests a high-scoring environment, which should provide plenty of opportunities for Jackson to rack up stats on both ends of the floor. Over his last four games, he’s averaging 39 DK points while playing around 31 minutes per game, showing consistent production that makes him worth consideration in both cash games and tournaments.

One thing to note is Jackson’s projected ownership at 20.8%, which is relatively high but justifiable given his upside and matchup. His Boom% (24.3%) and appearance in 12.2% of optimal lineups suggest he has tournament-winning potential if things break right. While Utah’s frontcourt can be physical with Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen, they’ve struggled to contain versatile big men like Jackson, who can contribute across multiple categories. If you’re targeting mid-range plays with upside tonight, JJJ deserves to be on your radar as a reliable option with ceiling potential in this matchup.

More PF Plays:

• Miles Bridges ($7,400)
• LeBron James ($9,900)
• Kevin Durant ($9,300)

C - Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700)

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700) is in a solid spot tonight against the Kings, and while his salary is high, his recent production makes him worth considering. Over his last five games, Towns has averaged 49.1 DK points with a ceiling performance of 63 DK points just two nights ago. Sacramento is not an intimidating defensive matchup, especially for big men, as they rank near the bottom of the league in rebounding rate and struggle to protect the rim. With a projected 36 minutes on the floor and a strong 1.41 FPPM rate, Towns has both the volume and efficiency to deliver value at this price point.

Ownership-wise, Towns is projected at 14.6%, which is reasonable for tournaments but not overly chalky. His Boom% of 25.5% suggests he has a legitimate shot at hitting a ceiling game in this high-total environment (117.75). The Knicks will rely on him heavily for scoring and rebounding, making him a focal point in what should be a competitive game. If you’re looking for a high-upside pivot off other top-tier centers tonight, Towns fits the bill with his ability to fill up the stat sheet across multiple categories.

More C Plays:

• Moussa Diabate ($3,000)
• Anthony Davis ($10,500)
• Jakob Poeltl ($6,400)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!