FREE 10/28 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET with PHI at WAS and wraps up by 11:00 PM ET, giving you some solid late-swap windows to work with. The highest totals stand out right away—CHA at MIA tips at 7:30 PM ET with a 240.5, and that PHI-WAS matchup hits 239.5—which could drive a lot of the value if those teams push the pace.

From a DFS angle, those high totals point to games where you might stack for upside, especially if the defenses slip up. The rest of the slate mixes in some lower-tempo spots, so picking your exposure between the fast environments and the grinders will be key to separating from the field.

Game Environment Analysis

PHI @ WAS (O/U: 239.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: PHI (21st) vs WAS (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: PHI (3rd) 🔥 vs WAS (25th)
• Def Eff: PHI (28th) 🎯 vs WAS (22nd)

CHA @ MIA (O/U: 240.5, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: CHA (6th) vs MIA (1st)
• Off Eff: CHA (1st) vs MIA (10th)
• Def Eff: CHA (10th) vs MIA (3rd)

NYK @ MIL (O/U: 229.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: NYK (22nd) vs MIL (7th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: NYK (26th) vs MIL (9th)
• Def Eff: NYK (5th) vs MIL (11th)

SAC @ OKC (O/U: 226.5, Spread: -9.5)

• Pace: SAC (13th) vs OKC (29th)
• Off Eff: SAC (24th) vs OKC (18th)
• Def Eff: SAC (13th) vs OKC (2nd)

LAC @ GSW (O/U: 223.5, Spread: 1.5)

• Pace: LAC (25th) vs GSW (15th)
• Off Eff: LAC (7th) 🔥 vs GSW (5th) 🔥
• Def Eff: LAC (17th) vs GSW (24th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jalen Brunson ($8,100)

Jalen Brunson continues to anchor the Knicks’ offense with his consistent scoring outbursts, posting 46.3 DK points across his last three games and maintaining a season average of 46.3 points per game. He thrives in high-usage scenarios at 31.67%, converting 45.3% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc while dishing 5.7 assists nightly. Against the Bucks, Milwaukee’s perimeter defense struggles to contain ball-dominant guards like Brunson, especially with his projected 35 minutes allowing him to exploit transition opportunities and pick-and-roll sets.

Brunson’s tournament-leading rank and 23.6% optimal lineup rate make him indispensable at point guard, delivering a robust 5.45x value on his $8,100 salary with a 30.8% boom rate that outpaces the field. His 1.26 fantasy points per minute projection underscores his reliability in this matchup, where he commands primary usage without significant competition from teammates, positioning him to exceed 44 fantasy points and carry lineups to the top.

More PG Plays:

• James Harden ($8,500)
• LaMelo Ball ($9,700)

SG - VJ Edgecombe ($6,500)

VJ Edgecombe faces a Wizards defense that ranks near the bottom in defending wings, allowing 25+ points to shooting guards and small forwards in recent outings, which plays directly into his explosive scoring profile. Projected for 38 minutes, Edgecombe leverages his 50% field goal efficiency and 40% three-point shooting to rack up points efficiently, as evidenced by his steady 46.1 DK points over the last seven games. The 76ers’ fast-paced style against Washington’s porous backcourt amplifies his chances for multi-category production, including 6.0 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game.

At just $6,500, Edgecombe crushes value expectations with a 5.93x rating and 27.6% boom potential, securing the third overall tournament rank and 22.6% optimal frequency that dwarfs field averages. His 23.80% usage and 20.35 PER highlight untapped upside in this favorable spot, where he consistently hits 38.5 projected fantasy points, making him the clear top choice at SG/SF for building balanced, high-ceiling rosters.

More SG Plays:

• Collin Sexton ($5,400)
• Norman Powell ($6,900)

SF - Kawhi Leonard ($7,600)

Kawhi Leonard delivers steady, high-floor production that belies his $7,600 salary, consistently hitting 40+ DK points in four of his last seven games with a season average of 40.3 points. His 49% field goal and 40% three-point shooting efficiency shines in versatile roles, pairing 22.3 points with 6.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists to fuel the Clippers’ attack. The matchup at Golden State exposes vulnerabilities in the Warriors’ forward defense, particularly against Leonard’s mid-range mastery and defensive versatility that racks up steals and blocks.

Leonard slots into the fifth tournament rank with a 5.45x value and 26.9% boom rate, boasting a 21.3% optimal lineup inclusion that reflects his 1.18 fantasy points per minute across 35 projected minutes. At 28.08% usage and a 21.67 PER, he elevates any build at SF/PF, projecting for 41.4 fantasy points in an environment ripe for his all-around dominance to push past ownership chalk and deliver tournament-winning returns.

More SF Plays:

• Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($4,500)
• Kyshawn George ($6,600)

PF - Nikola Jovic ($4,100)

Nikola Jovic has averaged 24.0 DK points over his last three games, blending efficient scoring at 45.5% from the field with 40% three-point accuracy to complement 4.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists per contest. His recent uptick to 24.8 points in the last five outings signals growing comfort in Miami’s rotation, where he logs 24 projected minutes without heavy minutes restrictions. Against Charlotte, the Hornets’ weak interior presence allows Jovic to exploit mismatches as a stretch big, capitalizing on his 16.99% usage for opportunistic double-doubles.

Priced at a bargain $4,100, Jovic tops the tournament ranks at PF/C with 5.48x value and a 27.2% boom rate, achieving 25% optimal lineup rate that far exceeds field norms. His 0.94 fantasy points per minute and consistent 22.5 projection make him a salary-saver who outperforms his tag, enabling stacks with premium pieces while his 13.97 PER ensures reliable contributions in this lopsided matchup.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,600)

C - Bam Adebayo ($8,000)

Bam Adebayo operates in a dream scenario against Charlotte’s league-worst defense against centers, where he averages 37.8 DK points over the last three games and projects for 34 minutes of run. His double-double prowess—19.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists—pairs with active defense that adds steals and blocks, all while shooting 36.2% from the field and 33.3% from three. Miami’s high-implied total in this home matchup boosts his touches in the paint and on the perimeter, amplifying his 25.84% usage for versatile stat lines.

Adebayo ranks third overall at PF/C with a 5.21x value on $8,000, featuring a 23.9% boom rate and 19.2% optimal inclusion that highlights his floor in 41.7 projected fantasy points. His 1.23 FPPM and 12.21 PER cement him as the premier option here, where he dominates rebounds and assists without sharing the load, providing the stability and upside needed to anchor winning DFS builds.

More C Plays:

• Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,600)
• Isaiah Hartenstein ($6,300)

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