FREE 02/20 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a loaded 9-game NBA slate tonight, tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and wrapping up with the late games at 10:00 PM ET. Two matchups immediately jump off the page in terms of game environment: MEM at IND with a massive 251.0 total and CHI at NYK sitting at 245.0. Both games should feature plenty of pace and scoring, making them prime spots to target for DFS lineups. With totals like these, it’s hard to ignore the potential ceiling performances that could come out of these matchups.

The rest of the slate offers a mix of slower-paced games and a few sneaky spots that could fly under the radar depending on how ownership shakes out. Balancing exposure between the high-total matchups and less obvious value plays will be key to building competitive lineups tonight.

Game Environment Analysis

MEM @ IND (O/U: 251.0, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs IND (7th)
• Off Eff: MEM (5th) 🔥 vs IND (8th)
• Def Eff: MEM (7th) vs IND (21st)

BOS @ PHI (O/U: 225.5, Spread: 7.0)

• Pace: BOS (26th) vs PHI (28th)
• Off Eff: BOS (4th) 🔥 vs PHI (22nd)
• Def Eff: BOS (5th) vs PHI (23rd)

ORL @ ATL (O/U: 223.0, Spread: 1.0)

• Pace: ORL (29th) vs ATL (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ORL (29th) vs ATL (20th)
• Def Eff: ORL (2nd) vs ATL (17th)

CLE @ BKN (O/U: 225.5, Spread: 13.0)

• Pace: CLE (6th) vs BKN (30th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs BKN (27th)
• Def Eff: CLE (8th) vs BKN (19th)

CHI @ NYK (O/U: 245.0, Spread: -12.0)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs NYK (24th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (16th) vs NYK (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHI (26th) 🎯 vs NYK (22nd)

LAC @ MIL (O/U: 228.5, Spread: 3.0)

• Pace: LAC (20th) vs MIL (8th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: LAC (19th) vs MIL (12th)
• Def Eff: LAC (4th) vs MIL (10th)

CHA @ DEN (O/U: 227.0, Spread: -17.5)

• Pace: CHA (22nd) vs DEN (5th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHA (28th) vs DEN (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHA (13th) vs DEN (16th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

PHX @ SAS (O/U: 238.0, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: PHX (23rd) vs SAS (14th)
• Off Eff: PHX (10th) vs SAS (14th)
• Def Eff: PHX (27th) 🎯 vs SAS (18th)

LAL @ POR (O/U: 224.5, Spread: 1.5)

• Pace: LAL (21st) vs POR (19th)
• Off Eff: LAL (11th) vs POR (26th)
• Def Eff: LAL (14th) vs POR (25th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jalen Brunson ($8,400)

Jalen Brunson ($8,400) finds himself in a strong spot tonight against the Bulls, offering both consistency and upside at his price point. With a projected 48.6 DK points and a solid 1.35 FPPM, Brunson has been delivering elite production, especially in competitive matchups where he’s leaned on heavily. Chicago’s defense has been middle-of-the-pack against point guards, and with Brunson averaging 36 minutes per game recently, he should have plenty of opportunity to hit value here. His 39.6% Boom percentage and appearance in 22.1% of optimal lineups further solidify his case as one of the slate’s top plays for both cash games and tournaments.

The main concern is ownership, as Brunson is projected to be rostered by 25.5% of the field—a hefty number compared to most players. However, it’s chalk worth eating given his combination of ceiling and floor at this salary. He’s posted multiple games over 40 DK points recently, including a massive 68.5-point outing earlier this month, showcasing his ability to break the slate in the right spots. While fading him could create leverage in large-field GPPs, you’re risking missing out on one of the highest-probability plays on the board tonight. In short: don’t overthink it—Brunson is worth locking into your lineups if you can fit him comfortably within your builds.

More PG Plays:

• De’Aaron Fox ($7,900)
• Elfrid Payton ($4,000)
• Austin Reaves ($8,200)

SG - De’Aaron Fox ($7,900)

De’Aaron Fox is in an intriguing spot tonight at $7,900 in a matchup against Phoenix. His 1.32 FPPM and projected 46.1 DK points make him one of the strongest value plays on the slate with a 5.8x return. Fox’s Boom% of 37.4% reflects his ability to crush this price tag, and his 17.1% Optimal% suggests he’s a legitimate building block for both cash games and tournaments. The Suns’ defense isn’t one to shy away from either, as their backcourt has struggled to contain opposing guards, making this a favorable environment for Fox to thrive. With his recent minutes hovering around 35-39 per game and consistent scoring upside, he offers both safety and ceiling.

The elephant in the room is his ownership, projected at 27.5%. While that’s high relative to the field average, it feels warranted given his price and role since joining San Antonio. Fox has been consistently productive, averaging over 21 points and nearly eight assists per game in his last five outings while shooting efficiently (50% FG). If you’re comfortable eating chalk, he’s a strong option to anchor your lineup with solid floor/ceiling potential. However, if you’re looking for leverage in GPPs, fading him could make sense given how popular he’ll be—just know you’re passing on one of the slate’s best values in doing so.

More SG Plays:

• Austin Reaves ($8,200)
• Anfernee Simons ($6,500)
• Nick Smith Jr. ($4,500)

SF - LeBron James ($10,200)

LeBron James is in a great spot tonight against the Trail Blazers, assuming he suits up. Portland’s defense has been one of the weakest in the league, and they’ve struggled to contain versatile forwards like LeBron. With a 1.51 FPPM rate and projected for 35 minutes, he’s set up to deliver strong value at his $10,200 salary (5.18x). His 52.87 DK projection ranks second on the slate, and a 25.4% Boom Rate shows plenty of upside for tournaments. The Lakers are shorthanded with Luka Doncic and Jarred Vanderbilt already ruled out, so if LeBron plays through his questionable tag, expect him to shoulder a significant workload.

At 19% ownership, LeBron will be one of the more popular plays on the slate, but it’s chalk that makes sense given his ceiling and consistency. He’s appeared in 13.4% of optimal lineups, which supports his value even at this price point. If you’re targeting this game environment, LeBron is clearly the priority piece given his ability to fill up every stat category against a soft defensive matchup. The only concern here is whether he gets ruled out closer to lock on the second night of a back-to-back—so stay ready with pivots like Austin Reaves or Rui Hachimura if needed.

More SF Plays:

• Franz Wagner ($8,600)
• Nick Smith Jr. ($4,500)
• Kawhi Leonard ($7,100)

PF - Jeremy Sochan ($4,500)

Jeremy Sochan at $4,500 is shaping up to be one of the slate’s strongest value plays. With a 6.0x value projection and 27.1 DK points expected, he offers plenty of upside for his price tag. His 1.08 FPPM production is solid for someone likely to see around 25 minutes tonight, and his recent performances show a well-rounded stat line that includes scoring, rebounding, and even defensive contributions like steals and blocks. The matchup against Phoenix isn’t ideal on paper, but Sochan’s versatility as a PF/C gives him opportunities to contribute across multiple categories regardless of game script.

The high ownership (29.9%) might give some pause in tournaments, but it’s hard to argue against the chalk here given his strong Boom% (28.1%) and top-three tournament ranking at his position. He also appears in over 20% of optimal lineups, which further supports the idea that he’s priced too low for what he brings to the table. If you’re looking for differentiation in GPPs, fading him could make sense depending on your risk tolerance—but in cash games or balanced builds, Sochan feels like a near-lock for value tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Pascal Siakam ($7,800)
• Bol Bol ($4,800)
• Kevin Durant ($9,200)

C - Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700)

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700) is in a prime spot tonight against Chicago. With a projection of 55.4 DK points and an elite 1.54 FPPM, he offers both a high ceiling and consistency in his current role. Towns has been logging heavy minutes recently, averaging 38 per game over his last five contests, and he’s delivered massive performances, including 70.5 and 66.5 DK points in two of his last three outings. Chicago’s defense doesn’t present much resistance for bigs, ranking near the bottom of the league in paint defense, which only enhances his upside. At 5.7x value, he’s one of the strongest plays on the slate from both a floor and ceiling perspective.

The key factor here is ownership—Towns is projected to be rostered by 42.9% of the field, making him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While that level of ownership can be concerning in tournaments, it feels justified given his recent production and favorable matchup. His Boom% (39.8%) and Optimal% (20.6%) suggest he has legitimate slate-breaking potential even at this price point. If you’re looking to differentiate your lineup elsewhere, Towns is worth eating the chalk given how well-positioned he is to deliver another monster performance tonight.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,500)
• Kevin Durant ($9,200)
• Jusuf Nurkic ($4,300)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!