FREE 09/14 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Week 2 is here and this slate presents a robust set of options, with several matchups primed for fantasy production. We’re looking at a few contests with particularly appealing totals, notably the Jaguars-Bengals game at 49.0 points and the Bills-Jets matchup at 47.5 points, suggesting these could be excellent starting points for your builds. The Eagles-Chiefs game also carries a healthy 47.0-point total, offering another high-ceiling environment.

While most games are clear of significant weather concerns, it’s worth noting the 25% precipitation chance in the Patriots-Dolphins game, and a 15% chance with 11 mph winds for Eagles-Chiefs. Beyond the top totals, keep an eye on the Giants-Cowboys (44.5 total) and Bears-Lions (46.5 total) games, both played in domes, which could provide stable, high-scoring environments for offensive players.

Top Stacks

JAX vs CIN ($19,100)

Players: Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., Chase Brown

This JAX vs CIN stack projects 55.5 points with 14.3% ownership and 11.7% optimal rate, offering 2.91 pts/$1K value. Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. showed minimal correlation in Week 1, with Lawrence having a quiet outing (178 yards, 1 TD) and Thomas Jr. catching only one pass for 11 yards despite a touchdown on an end-around. Chase Brown’s high usage (21 carries, 2 targets) in Week 1, despite inefficiency, positions him for significant upside as a bring-back, especially if the Bengals are playing from behind and need to lean on a volume-based ground game.

DAL vs NYG ($20,800)

Players: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers

The DAL vs. NYG stack projects 58.8 points with 11.1% ownership and 11.6% optimal rate, offering 2.82 pts/$1K value. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb showed their strong correlation in Week 1, with Lamb seeing 13 targets and hitting 110 yards despite some drops, indicating a high-volume connection that should continue. Malik Nabers provides excellent bring-back upside, having received 12 targets in Week 1 and slated for a full workload, suggesting he’ll be heavily involved if the Giants are playing from behind against Dallas.

CIN vs JAX ($21,400)

Players: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Brian Thomas Jr.

The CIN vs JAX stack projects 61.5 points with 14.5% ownership and 11.4% optimal rate, offering 2.87 pts/$1K value. Despite a quiet Week 1 where Joe Burrow managed only 113 yards and Ja’Marr Chase had just 26 yards on two receptions, both are primed for a bounce-back with increased volume against Jacksonville, ensuring strong correlation. Brian Thomas Jr. provides an intriguing bring-back option for Jacksonville; while his Week 1 receiving was poor (1 catch, 11 yards), his rushing touchdown shows red-zone upside, and a negative game script could force more targets his way.

QB Plays

Lamar Jackson ($7,000)

Lamar Jackson continues to deliver elite fantasy production, most recently scoring three combined touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) against the Bills, showcasing his consistent dual-threat upside. Facing the Browns at home, Jackson benefits from a robust 11.5-point game spread in favor of the Ravens, indicating strong offensive opportunity. His projected 23.82 DK points at a 3.4x value positions him as a top-tier option, especially given his confirmed health and clear path to a high-scoring performance.

Jackson’s combination of a secure floor from his rushing volume and massive ceiling potential from his passing and red zone involvement makes him highly appealing at his $7000 salary. Despite his 11.43% projected ownership, which is higher than the field average, his 9.38% optimal lineup percentage solidifies his status as a strong GPP play. The favorable game total of 45.0 further supports his outlook for another dominant outing, making him a featured recommendation.

Honorable Mentions

• Josh Allen ($7,100)
• Joe Burrow ($6,600)

RB Plays

Christian McCaffrey ($7,500)

Christian McCaffrey continues to be a dominant force, racking up 142 yards from scrimmage in his last outing, including 73 receiving yards on 10 targets. This dual-threat usage provides an incredibly high floor, especially considering the potential for increased receiving work if teammates George Kittle and Jauan Jennings miss time. His significant volume with 31 combined touches in a close game demonstrates his indispensable role in the 49ers’ offense.

Christian McCaffrey’s projection of 22.44 DK points at a $7500 salary gives him a strong 2.99x value, making him an optimal lineup candidate in 23.6% of simulations. While his 23.7% projected ownership is high, his consistent elite production and massive ceiling potential, particularly in a dome environment against the Saints, solidify his recommendation as a featured player for both cash games and tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Chase Brown ($6,800)
• De’Von Achane ($6,900)

WR Plays

Puka Nacua ($7,600)

Puka Nacua continues to display elite target volume, evidenced by his recent 10-catch, 130-yard performance on 11 targets against the Texans, even after a brief injury scare. This consistent high-end usage, coupled with Matthew Stafford looking healthy, positions Nacua for another WR1-type projection against the Titans, where he is projected for a robust 21.07 DraftKings points with a strong 2.77x value at his $7600 salary. His GPP Rank of 1 and Optimal Lineup % of 16.65% underscore his significant upside and key role in winning tournament lineups.

Nacua’s demonstrated ability to deliver massive production, even after sustaining a minor injury, highlights his resilience and critical role in the Rams’ offense, providing a secure floor rooted in high target share and red zone opportunities. Facing a favorable matchup, his combination of consistent high-volume usage and explosive playmaking ability makes him a premier DFS option, offering both a high floor and substantial ceiling potential crucial for tournament success. His projected ownership of 15.52% indicates strong community confidence in his ability to produce.

Honorable Mentions

• Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100)
• CeeDee Lamb ($7,800)

TE Plays

Trey McBride ($6,000)

Trey McBride is a top DFS recommendation, projected for 17.02 DK points and boasting a strong 2.84x value at a $6000 salary. He just secured six grabs in Week 1, leading the Cardinals in receptions, and is coming off a massive 2024 campaign where he posted a 111-1,146-2 line on 147 targets, demonstrating consistent high-volume usage. His tournament rank of 1 and optimal lineup percentage of 15.42% highlight his significant upside and potential to be a slate-winning play, especially with his moderate 9.45% ownership offering excellent tournament leverage.

McBride’s consistent target volume and confirmed role in a narrow target tree for Arizona provide a secure floor, while his proven red zone involvement offers massive ceiling potential against the Panthers. Playing in a dome further mitigates any weather concerns, ensuring optimal playing conditions for his high-volume passing game. This combination of high projected points, excellent value, and favorable ownership makes Trey McBride an elite play for both cash games and tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Travis Kelce ($5,000)
• Tyler Warren ($4,500)

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