FREE 09/25 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top TNF DFS Plays

Thursday Night Football brings us a tightly contested NFC West showdown as the Arizona Cardinals host the Seattle Seahawks. Vegas sees this as a near toss-up, with Seattle favored by a slim 1.5 points and a modest 43.5 total, hinting at a competitive battle that could be ripe for DFS value. With James Conner sidelined for the season, all eyes turn to Trey Benson stepping into a significant role for the Cardinals, while Kyler Murray and Trey McBride remain central to their offensive attack. For Seattle, it’s about capitalizing on their slight favorite status in what promises to be a grind-it-out affair.

This slate presents some interesting DFS angles. Arizona’s offense, anchored by Murray and McBride, will likely funnel targets and touches to their key players, especially with Benson now leading the backfield. On the Seattle side, we’ll need to identify who can exploit the Cardinals’ defense in what’s projected to be a low-scoring, yet competitive game. With the total sitting where it is, finding players with high volume and touchdown upside becomes even more critical. Let’s dive into the top Captain and Flex plays for Thursday’s showdown slate!

Top Captain Plays

Kyler Murray ($16,200)

Kyler Murray faces a favorable matchup against the Seahawks, and his dual-threat ability provides a high floor with immense upside for the captain spot. His 30.4 DK point projection, representing a strong 1.88x value, highlights his potential to dominate this game as the Cardinals’ primary offensive weapon. With a moderate 12.6% captain ownership, Murray offers leverage, and his rushing production consistently elevates his fantasy output, even in games where his passing numbers are modest. The 1.5x captain multiplier maximizes his ceiling, making him an elite play in a game where Arizona will look to him to lead their offense.

Honorable Mention

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($16,500)

Top UTIL Plays

1. Sam Darnold ($10,000)

Sam Darnold continues to impress, coming off a dominant performance where he completed 14 of 18 passes for 218 yards and two touchdowns in a decisive victory. This momentum, combined with his 295-yard, two-touchdown outing in Week 2, establishes a solid floor heading into tonight’s matchup. His elevated 36.63% optimal lineup percentage and high ownership of 59.6% among the field clearly demonstrate the confidence the DFS community has in his ability to deliver.

Darnold now faces an Arizona defense that has shown vulnerabilities, setting him up for another strong showing. With Seattle’s offense clicking and Darnold looking comfortable in the system, he is poised to exceed his 16.65 DK point projection. The potential for a shootout environment against the Cardinals further enhances his ceiling, making him an outstanding play at his salary.

2. Trey McBride ($9,800)

Trey McBride continues to dominate target share, leading all Cardinals in targets and receptions with eight looks last Sunday, and he immediately hit pay dirt with Kyler Murray’s only touchdown pass. He’s proving to be a consistent fantasy producer with a 17-182-1 receiving line through three games, and his red zone role is clearly established, needing just three games to find the end zone this season.

McBride faces a Seahawks defense that has struggled against tight ends, setting him up for another strong performance. His 17.21 DK projected points and 1.76x value highlight his ceiling, and with a 45.95% optimal lineup percentage, the data strongly supports his inclusion as a top play this week.

Honorable Mentions

• Trey Benson ($8,800)

Bargain Bin

Elijah Arroyo ($800)

Elijah Arroyo is cleared to play Thursday after being a full participant in Wednesday’s practice, and his $800 salary makes him an elite value play at tight end against Arizona. He projects for 3.47 DK points, offering an outstanding 4.33x value, and his 39.98% optimal lineup percentage highlights his slate-breaking potential at this price point.

Arroyo has seen three catches on five targets for 38 yards operating as the Seahawks’ TE2 this season, and his return to full health sets him up for increased involvement in a favorable matchup. This low salary allows significant roster flexibility, and his moderate 16.87% ownership provides leverage while still being a widely recognized strong play.

Honorable Mention

• Michael Wilson ($3,400)

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