FREE 09/28 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Week 4 is here and there are plenty of pathways to build winning lineups. Several matchups present enticing game environments, with the Colts-Rams game leading the way with a 49.5 total, closely followed by the Ravens-Chiefs at 48.5 and the Saints-Bills and Bears-Raiders both sitting at 48.0.

Beyond these high-total spots, it’s worth noting that nearly half the slate takes place in domes, mitigating any weather concerns for those matchups. For the outdoor games, conditions generally look favorable, with mild temperatures and minimal precipitation across the board. This sets the stage for a slate where offensive production should be a primary focus.

Top Stacks

IND vs LAR ($18,100)

Players: Daniel Jones, Tyler Warren, Puka Nacua

This IND-LAR stack projects 56.1 points with 16.2% ownership, 14.5% optimal rate, and 18.6% boom rate, offering 3.10 pts/$1K value. Daniel Jones has shown strong recent form, including a 316-yard, one-touchdown performance against Denver and an efficient 228-yard, one-touchdown outing against the Titans, directly correlating with Tyler Warren’s target volume (3-5 targets in last game) even if his yardage was limited. Puka Nacua offers significant bring-back upside, having dominated targets for the Rams with 15 targets for 112 yards in their last loss and a 136-yard total against the Titans, suggesting he’ll be heavily involved if the Rams are playing from behind.

LAR vs IND ($21,300)

Players: Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Jonathan Taylor

The LAR vs IND stack projects 60.5 points with 14.0% ownership, 14.3% optimal rate, and 18.0% boom rate, offering 2.84 pts/$1K value. Stafford has thrown multiple touchdowns in his last two games, and Puka Nacua has been dominant, receiving 15 targets in his last game and topping 100 yards from scrimmage in three straight, demonstrating strong correlation. Jonathan Taylor, with four touchdowns on the season and consecutive 100+ yard rushing games, offers significant bring-back upside, especially if the Colts are playing from behind and need to lean on his explosive playmaking, as seen by his 46-yard touchdown run last week.

QB Plays

Geno Smith ($5,400)

Geno Smith is a strong DFS recommendation this week at a salary of $5400, projecting for 19.94 DK points and offering excellent 3.69x value. He’s coming off a dominant performance where he tossed three touchdowns, including a 61-yard strike, demonstrating his multi-TD upside and ability to connect on big plays. This bounce-back performance against the Commanders, where he completed 19 of 29 passes for 289 yards, highlights his capability to deliver after a down week.

Smith draws a highly favorable matchup against an injury-ravaged Bears defense, providing a significant opportunity for another ceiling performance in a game with a healthy 48.0 total. His 14.97% Boom% and 6.1% Optimal% at moderate 9.69% ownership make him an appealing tournament play, offering leverage against the field while providing a strong combination of floor and ceiling at his accessible salary.

Honorable Mentions

• Josh Allen ($7,700)
• Caleb Williams ($5,800)

RB Plays

Christian McCaffrey ($8,500)

Christian McCaffrey continues to be a dominant force, logging his third consecutive game with over 100 total yards, even when facing stacked boxes and a shorthanded offense. His dual-threat capabilities are undeniable, highlighted by a recent performance where he corralled 10 of 15 targets for 88 yards, showcasing his high-volume pass-catching role which provides a secure floor. With a projected 23.6 DK points and a 25.31% Boom%, McCaffrey remains an elite RB1, offering consistent production and massive ceiling potential, making him a cornerstone for DFS lineups despite his $8500 salary.

McCaffrey’s high usage, including a whopping 27 combined touches in a recent game, underscores his central role in the 49ers’ offense. His consistent target volume (10 catches on 15 targets) ensures a high floor, while his red zone involvement, evident from his touchdown in Week 2, provides significant upside. With a favorable game total of 46.5 and the 49ers favored by 3.5 points against Jacksonville, McCaffrey is positioned for another strong performance, solidifying his appeal as a top DFS recommendation with a healthy 19.88% optimal lineup percentage.

Honorable Mentions

• James Cook III ($7,100)
• Omarion Hampton ($5,900)

WR Plays

Puka Nacua ($7,900)

Puka Nacua continues to demonstrate elite usage with 15 targets in his last game, accounting for a massive share of the Rams’ pass attempts. He has consistently surpassed 100 scrimmage yards in three straight games to begin the season, showcasing both a secure floor and explosive ceiling. The matchup against the Colts, combined with his dominant target volume and proven ability to deliver big plays, positions him as the top-ranked WR in this slate.

Nacua’s projected 23.69 DK points at a 3.0x value makes him an incredibly appealing option at his $7900 salary. His high optimal lineup percentage (26.95%) and boom rate (30.73%) reflect his consistent ability to exceed expectations, even with a projected ownership of 25.14%. Playing in a dome further enhances his appeal, removing any weather concerns and setting the stage for another high-scoring performance.

Honorable Mentions

• Jakobi Meyers ($5,400)
• Drake London ($5,700)

TE Plays

Brock Bowers ($5,800)

Brock Bowers is an elite DFS play this week, boasting a GPP Rank of 1 and an Optimal% of 13.25%, indicating his significant upside for tournaments. Despite a recent minor knee injury, he’s maintained consistent involvement in the Raiders’ passing game, with at least four catches in three straight contests. This week’s matchup against the Bears, who have been one of the worst defensive units in the NFL to start the year, presents a prime opportunity for Bowers to return to his record-setting form, especially with the knee issue further behind him.

Bowers’ moderate ownership of 9.29% offers excellent tournament leverage, allowing DFS players to capitalize on his high Boom% of 13.94% at a salary of $5800. His projection of 15.28 DK points and a Value of 2.63x highlight his strong potential for exceeding expectations. Playing in a domed stadium further removes any weather concerns, ensuring optimal conditions for Bowers to deliver a ceiling performance against a struggling Chicago defense.

Honorable Mentions

• Tyler Warren ($4,600)
• David Njoku ($3,800)

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