FREE 10/12 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Week 6 is here with a 10-game slate and plenty of options for DFS lineups. The highest total comes in Dallas at Carolina at 49.5, where both offenses could put up points in what looks like a favorable matchup. Arizona at Indianapolis follows at 47, with the dome helping keep things predictable, and San Francisco at Tampa Bay matches that number outdoors but with minimal weather interference.

Weather adds a wrinkle in a few spots, like the 74% rain chance in Los Angeles at Baltimore, which might limit big plays and favor ground games. Cleveland at Pittsburgh has the lowest total at 38, so expect a low-scoring affair that could create value on the defensive side. Keep an eye on those elements when stacking or fading games.

Top Stacks

TB vs SF ($22,200)

Players: Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka, Christian McCaffrey

The TB-SF stack projects 62.5 points with 15.4% ownership, 15.7% optimal rate, and 16.7% boom rate, offering 2.81 pts/$1K value. Mayfield and Egbuka show strong correlation as Tampa Bay’s primary passing duo without Evans, with Mayfield completing 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and 2 TDs last week while Egbuka hauled in all 7 targets for 163 yards and a TD, marking his second straight 100+ yard, scoring outing that boosts stack upside in a projected high-total matchup. As the SF bring-back, McCaffrey offers game-script leverage with 30 touches (22 rushes for 57 yards, 8 catches for 82 yards and a TD) in an OT win amid injuries, positioning him for 25+ touches if San Francisco trails or extends plays against TB’s defense.

NE vs NO ($16,800)

Players: Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs, Chris Olave

The NE vs. NO stack with Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs, and Chris Olave as the bring-back projects 51.1 points with 16.2% ownership, 13.0% optimal rate, and 15.0% boom rate, offering 3.04 pts/$1K value. Maye and Diggs have shown strong correlation in recent games, with Maye completing 73.9% of passes over five starts—including 14-of-17 for 203 yards and two TDs in Week 4 when Diggs caught six passes for 101 yards—and delivering 273 yards on 22-of-30 in Week 5 to pair with Diggs’ 10 receptions for 146 yards, supporting consistent between-the-20s production that could exploit NO’s secondary. As the NO bring-back, Olave offers upside in a favorable game script if the Saints build an early lead like their 26-14 win over the Giants, where he led the team with 11 targets and seven catches for 59 yards despite modest efficiency, building on his season-high 53 targets across five games for a potential volume breakout against NE’s improving but turnover-prone defense.

QB Plays

Trevor Lawrence ($5,100)

Trevor Lawrence is heating up at the perfect time, delivering 21.5 DK points per game over his last two outings after averaging 18.2 across the prior four, including a three-total-TD masterpiece in Monday’s comeback win over Kansas City where he rushed for two scores and completed a season-high 72% of his passes. His dual-threat ability shines through with 54 rushing yards and a game-winning touchdown run in that contest, boosting his floor while his passing efficiency—capped by a touchdown to Parker Washington—fuels consistent multi-TD upside. At just $5,100, Lawrence offers elite 3.76x value with a 19.2-point projection that ranks him No. 1 in tournaments, making him a cornerstone for cash and GPP builds alike.

Facing a Seahawks defense that just surrendered 379 passing yards and two TDs to Baker Mayfield, Lawrence steps into a spot ripe for exploitation, especially with Seattle’s -5.7% PROE signaling their run-heavy tendencies that could open up passing lanes in a favorable game script. Market props back the optimism at 226.5 passing yards and 15.5 rushing yards with +320 TD odds, aligning with his recent target volume and red-zone rushes for boom potential at a 16.7% rate. Moderate 8.7% ownership provides solid tournament leverage near optimal 9.4% lineup inclusion, combining secure volume with ceiling explosions that elevate stacks and differentiate entries.

Honorable Mentions

• Drake Maye ($5,900)

RB Plays

Christian McCaffrey ($8,400)

Christian McCaffrey continues to deliver elite production with 30 touches and a receiving touchdown in his latest overtime win over the Rams, pushing his scoring average to 30.0 DK points per game over the last two outings. His receiving excellence shines through with three straight games of 80-plus yards through the air, including eight catches for 82 yards last time out, while his prop lines reflect market confidence at -165 odds for a touchdown, 55.5 rushing yards, 53.5 receiving yards, and 6.5 receptions. This dual-threat usage secures a high floor with consistent target volume, now amplified by San Francisco’s potential absences at skill positions, setting him up for another heavy workload against Tampa Bay.

McCaffrey’s matchup on the road aligns with a favorable game script as the 49ers enter as 3-point favorites in a 47-point total affair, enhancing his path to 24.2 projected DK points and a league-leading tournament rank of 1. At an $8,400 salary, he offers 2.88x value with a 28.3% boom rate, making his combination of volume and big-play upside ideal for cash and tournament builds despite 21.6% projected ownership. The trending upward form over his prior 26.7 DK points average across four games positions him for explosive ceiling potential in this prime-time slot.

Honorable Mentions

• Rachaad White ($6,000)

WR Plays

Puka Nacua ($8,700)

Puka Nacua continues to lead the Rams’ passing attack with double-digit receptions and targets in three straight games, including 10 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown in their recent overtime loss to the 49ers. He’s exploded for 31.8 DK points per game over his last two outings, surpassing his four-game average of 28.5, while securing both of his season touchdowns in that span. His target volume and red zone role alongside Matthew Stafford provide a reliable floor, with prop lines reflecting market confidence at 8.5 receptions, 95.5 receiving yards, and -120 odds for a score.

The Rams’ +2.2% pass-heavy PROE sets up Nacua for another high-volume performance against Baltimore, where his dual-threat ability aligns perfectly with the game’s 44.5 total and his tournament-leading projection of 23.2 DK points. At $8,700, he delivers 2.67x value with a 22.9% boom rate and 23.1% optimal lineup share, making him a cornerstone for GPP builds despite 21.3% projected ownership that offers leverage against the field average.

Honorable Mentions

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,600)
• Stefon Diggs ($5,800)

TE Plays

Trey McBride ($5,500)

Trey McBride leads the Cardinals in targets with consistent volume, posting 7+ targets in each of his last four games while averaging 13.4 DK points over that stretch. His prop lines reflect strong market expectations at 6.5 receptions, 59.5 receiving yards, and +180 odds for a touchdown, aligning with a 15.6-point projection that delivers 2.84x value at his $5,500 salary. As the primary tight end in Arizona’s pass-heavy scheme with a +3.1% PROE, McBride secures a reliable floor through high-target usage, including team-high marks in recent outings despite shorter-yardage games.

Facing Indianapolis in a dome with a 47-point total and Arizona as a -7 favorite, McBride’s role expands in a game script favoring sustained passing attacks. His tournament rank of 1 and 16.4% boom rate highlight massive ceiling potential, while 15.7% projected ownership provides leverage in GPPs against the field average. This combination of volume, efficiency, and matchup opportunity positions him as a cornerstone play with elite upside at tight end.

Honorable Mentions

• Jake Ferguson ($5,300)
• Tyler Warren ($4,900)

DST Plays

Packers ($3,700)

Packers DST enters as a heavy favorite against Cincinnati with a -14.5 spread, positioning them for a dominant game script that favors defensive production through sacks, turnovers, and limited offensive opportunities for the opponent. Their projection of 9.3 DK points delivers strong 2.52x value at just $3,700, aligning with a top-ranked tournament status that underscores their ceiling potential in a matchup where the Bengals’ implied total sits at 29.5 in a moderate 44.5-point game. This setup provides a reliable floor from expected stops and scores, enhanced by the unit’s ability to capitalize on Cincinnati’s vulnerabilities in a controlled environment with minimal weather interference.

The Packers DST combines this upside with moderate 10.4% projected ownership, offering solid leverage in tournaments where they rank first overall for GPP appeal. At an optimal lineup percentage of 9.4% and a 10% boom rate, they provide tournament differentiation without overexposure, making them a cornerstone for building efficient stacks at this salary tier. The favorable spread and game total validate their role in delivering multi-stat contributions that boost lineup ceilings across various formats.

Honorable Mentions

• Rams ($3,500)

Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!