FREE 10/16 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top TNF DFS Plays

Thursday Night Football brings us an AFC North clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers heading to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. Pittsburgh rolls in as a 5.5-point road favorite with a 44.5-point total, and they’ve been defying traditional offensive metrics by winning with opportunistic play – low turnovers, high takeaways, and plenty of sacks. On the flip side, the Bengals are reeling, losing four straight since Joe Burrow’s injury. Joe Flacco showed some life last week, connecting with Ja’Marr Chase, who’s been a target hog even amidst the team’s struggles. Weather doesn’t appear to be a concern tonight; focus on matchup and usage.

This slate presents an interesting DFS puzzle. Pittsburgh’s offense has spread the ball around, making it tough to pinpoint high-volume receivers, though Jaylen Warren leads in rushing yards and Kenneth Gainwell has been the touchdown scorer. Cincinnati’s offense, post-Burrow, has leaned heavily on Chase, while Tee Higgins has been quiet and the running game non-existent. This sets up a scenario where we need to identify which Steelers will capitalize on their opportunistic style and if Flacco can sustain enough offense to make Bengals’ pass-catchers viable. Let’s dive into the top Captain and Flex plays for Thursday’s showdown slate!

Top Captain Plays

Aaron Rodgers ($14,700)

Aaron Rodgers continues his upward trend in form, averaging 17.5 DK points per game over his last two outings, significantly improving on his season average and demonstrating his capacity for high-ceiling performances against the Bengals. His recent efficient play, including a multi-touchdown effort where he completed 70% of his passes for 235 yards, highlights his strong command of the Steelers’ offense. The 1.5x captain multiplier on his $14,700 salary maximizes his 25.3 DK point projection, presenting a substantial 1.72x value, and his moderate 12.0% ownership provides leverage in a game where his team will look to exploit a favorable matchup.

Honorable Mention

• Ja’Marr Chase ($18,000)

Top UTIL Plays

1. Joe Flacco ($9,400)

Joe Flacco completed 29 of 45 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns in his Cincinnati debut, showing immediate chemistry with his new weapons and delivering his first multi-touchdown performance of the season. He enters this week trending significantly upwards, averaging 18.8 DK points over his last two games compared to 10.2 over his previous four, and his new role with the Bengals’ talented receiving corps positions him for continued success.

Flacco faces a Steelers defense that he just put up 18.8 DK points against, and his 45.42% optimal lineup percentage is one of the highest on the slate, reflecting his strong value at $9400. With an implied passing yards prop of 232.5 and clear red zone targets in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, he has multiple avenues to exceed his projection and deliver a strong return on investment.

2. Jaylen Warren ($8,400)

Jaylen Warren narrowly leads the Steelers’ backfield and faces a Bengals defense that he can exploit through both rushing and receiving. He returned from a knee injury with 11 carries for 52 yards and two receptions for 11 yards against the Browns, comfortably leading the team in carries. Tonight’s game script projects a competitive environment where his dual-threat ability will be crucial, and his red zone involvement creates multiple touchdown opportunities.

Warren’s projected ownership of 32.0% highlights his popularity, and he carries a strong optimal lineup percentage of 50.22%, indicating his high ceiling for this slate. His -130 anytime touchdown odds are among the best for his position, and his combined rush and receiving yardage props of 69 yards suggest consistent involvement. Despite a recent dip in fantasy points, his role as the primary back in Pittsburgh’s run-heavy offense makes him an excellent play.

Honorable Mentions

• Chase Brown ($8,000)

Bargain Bin

Jonnu Smith ($4,000)

Jonnu Smith has seen his snap share jump significantly, playing 69% of the Steelers’ offensive snaps in Week 6, which indicates he’s past the hip injury that limited him earlier in the season. He’s consistently seen targets, securing 17 of 20 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown over his first five appearances, showing a reliable floor at the tight end position. Tonight’s matchup against the Bengals presents a strong opportunity for him to exceed his 8.87 projected DraftKings points given his integral role in the Steelers’ red zone offense.

Smith continues to offer exceptional value at his $4000 salary, boasting a 2.22x value projection and appearing in 41.03% of optimal lineups. His consistent target volume, including four touches in the Week 6 win, and a solid 6.6 DK points per game season average give him a high floor for his price point. The market also recognizes his scoring potential with 320 TD odds, and his increased usage makes him a prime candidate for multiple scoring opportunities in what projects to be a competitive game.

Honorable Mention

• Darnell Washington ($2,000)

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