[FREE] 10/17 NFL TNF Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

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We want to be positive. The intention here is to set you up for a profitable and enjoyable night of football. Regardless of the quality of the game, a night with football is better than one without. There is a compelling storyline with Sean Payton returning to New Orleans, but it’s all about the action on the field. The Saints will take the field tonight without Chris Olave, Rasheed Shaheed, Derek Carr, and Taysom Hill, which makes for an interesting slate. A close game is expected as the visiting Broncos are favored by three points. We have an over/under of just 37.5 points, so minimal offense is expected. This could be the week where rostering both defenses has value. We have a lot to consider for Thursday’s action, so let’s jump right into some TNF DFS picks for Week 7.

TNF DFS Picks

Captain

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints – $17,700 DK/$16,000 FD

If it previously wasn’t the case, it certainly is now. Alvin Kamara is the centerpiece of the Saints’ offense. After gaining just 40 yards on 13 carries last week, it’s possible that Kamara has some issues running the ball tonight, but the volume will be there. He did score his sixth rushing touchdown of the season last week, and in a low-scoring game, he has the best chance to find the end zone. It’s what Kamara does in the receiving game that we are really after. He has 28 receptions on the season, to go along with 428 rushing yards, and he figures to be busy tonight.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos – $14,100 DK/$15,000 FD

In his rookie season, Bo Nix has shown some flashes of success and making things happen. With that being said, he is still averaging less than 200 passing yards per game, but adding 180 rushing yards and three more touchdowns enhances his floor. The Saints had some struggles last week with Baker Mayfield, and it will be interesting to see what Payton has dialed up in his homecoming.

Flex Plays

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos – $8,800 DK/$11,500 FD

The name of the game tonight is volume. Last week, game flow didn’t work in Javonte Williams’s favor, as he had just six carries. We shouldn’t let that completely discourage us, though, as Williams is still the Broncos main ball carrier. This is as good a time as any for Williams to find the end zone for the first time this season. We can also expect to see Williams add a few receptions out of the backfield.

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints – $6,800 DK/$8,000 FD

With Olave and Shaheed out, the call for pass catchers has been made. After not being involved in the Saints’ offense for the first two weeks, we are seeing Juwan Johnson take on a larger role. Last week, that meant catching all three of his targets for 48 yards. That came a week after Johnson was targeted five times and caught all five for 31 yards. For a rookie quarterback, Johnson can serve as a nice safety valve, and I would expect Rattler to look his way tonight.

Will Lutz, K, Denver Broncos – $5,400 DK/$9,500 FD

We are all about playing the revenge game at the kicker position. Will Lutz has already proven he can produce in New Orleans, and that will be on display tonight. The Saints have allowed the third most DFS points to opposing kickers, and Lutz has been busy this year. Lutz has converted on 13 of 14 field goal attempts, along with all nine of his extra points. Leg strength has been on display, with six kicks greater than 40 yards and another from beyond 50 yards.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos – $10,800 DK/$11,000 FD

The price on Courtland Sutton isn’t great, but salary cap space shouldn’t be a concern. At a minimum, you’ll want some exposure to Denver’s best receiver. His value is tied to Nix, but it’s clear that some measure of chemistry is present. Last week, Sutton caught four of his six targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. In a game with limited offense expected, that stands out.

Spencer Rattler, QB, New Orleans Saints – $9,200 DK/$14,500 FD

Even if things could be ugly for Spencer Rattler, there is still some value in the rookie quarterback. Any fantasy production that happens, aside from on defense, for the Saints will likely flow through Rattler. Of course, Kamara could do some damage on the ground, but the assumption is that he will be in every lineup.

Things were more down than up for Rattler last week, as he completed 22 of 40 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown. The rookie also turned the ball over three times, two interceptions, and a fumble, but he did add 27 yards on the ground.

Value Plays

Bub Means, WR, New Orleans Saints – $4,000 DK/$8,500 FD

Through the first five weeks of the season, Bub Means had one target. He deserves some credit, though, as when his number was called last week, Means came through. Granted, it was a last-man-standing situation, but Means caught five of eight targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. At the least, we should see a similar workload tonight.

Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos – $3,000 DK/$8,000 FD

We often don’t find number two receivers as cheap as Troy Franklin is tonight. The Saints have struggled against opposing receivers from a DFS standpoint this season, and Franklin is looking to build on his first career touchdown last week.

Fade

Based on the options we have tonight, salary cap space likely won’t be a concern. While some options I like more than others, there is no one I’m truly staying away from in a roster build.

TNF Prop Bets

Alvin Kamara Anytime Touchdown (-110 on DK)

If the Saints do anything on offense tonight, it will be the Alvin Kamara show. The running back has found the end zone in four of six games this season, and we know that he is going to lead the Saints in touches tonight. He is a threat both on the ground and in the air.

Juwan Johnson Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-125 on DK)

In each of the last two weeks, Johnson has surpassed this mark. Tonight, the Saints offensive situation is even more dire, so Johnson should deliver for a third straight week.

Bub Means Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-125 on DK)

Last week, Means and Rattler were both pushed into prominent roles. Granted it is a short week, but they now have a game and a few more days of practicing and game planning under their belts. At the least, Means established a floor with 45 receiving yards last week, so I would look for him to surpass this mark.

Foster Moreau Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-125 on DK)

Moreau has been targeted in four of six games this year, and in three of those games, he has at least 13 yards. We know that the Saints are thin from a receiving perspective this week, and Rattler should look to target his dependable tight ends.