FREE 10/19 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Week 7 is here with a 10-game slate and plenty of options for building some high-upside DFS lineups. We’ve got heavy rain chances in New Orleans at Chicago (75%) and Miami at Cleveland (100%), with winds over 20 mph that might limit passing games and favor mobile QBs or the run. Domes like Philadelphia at Minnesota, Indianapolis at the Chargers, Green Bay at Arizona, and Washington at Dallas keep those environments clean and predictable, setting up some reliable stacking opportunities.

The high totals stand out for DFS upside, Washington at Dallas tops the board at 54, followed by Indianapolis at the Chargers at 48.5, both with close spreads that could lead to balanced scoring. Keep an eye on Kansas City over Las Vegas (-12 spread, 45.5 total) for a potential blowout script that boosts the favorites’ workload, while the dome games offer safer floors for stacking offenses in good matchups.

Top Stacks

WAS vs DAL ($18,200)

Players: Jayden Daniels, Zach Ertz, CeeDee Lamb

The WAS-DAL stack with Jayden Daniels, Zach Ertz, and CeeDee Lamb as the bring-back projects 54.5 points with 17.0% ownership, 15.6% optimal rate, and 16.3% boom rate, offering 3.00 pts/$1K value. Daniels and Ertz show strong correlation after Daniels targeted Ertz for a six-yard TD in Week 6’s 25-24 loss to the Bears, where Daniels threw for 211 yards and three TDs total while rushing for 52 yards; Ertz converted all six targets into 43 yards and that score, and with Terry McLaurin out (quad), Ertz’s questionable shoulder/calf status could yield 8+ targets if active against Dallas’s weak secondary. Lamb provides DAL bring-back upside in a potential high-scoring rivalry script, cleared from ankle injury with full practice and no limitations after missing time, positioning him for 10+ targets if Dallas trails or keeps it close, as his role expands with KaVontae Turpin returning but not displacing him as the top option.

PHI vs MIN ($20,100)

Players: Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson

The PHI-MIN stack with Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown pairs with Justin Jefferson as a bring-back projects 53.9 points with 13.0% ownership, 14.8% optimal rate, and 13.9% boom rate, offering 2.68 pts/$1K value. Hurts and Brown’s correlation benefits from Hurts’ recent efficiency, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt with 283 passing yards and a TD in Week 6 while targeting Brown nine times for 80 yards, building on Hurts’ back-to-back 280+ yard games that enhance Brown’s volume in a high-powered Eagles offense. Jefferson’s bring-back upside surges in potential pass-heavy scripts against Philadelphia’s defense, as evidenced by his consecutive 100-yard outings (123 yards on 11 targets vs. Browns, 126 on 11 vs. Steelers), especially if J.J. McCarthy returns to exploit mismatches post-bye.

DAL vs WAS ($20,100)

Players: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Jacory Croskey-Merritt

The DAL-WAS stack ($20,100) pairs Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb with bring-back Jacory Croskey-Merritt and projects 54.9 points with 16.5% ownership, 14.6% optimal rate, and 14.4% boom rate, offering 2.73 pts/$1K value. Prescott’s correlation with Lamb surges upon the WR’s return, as Lamb is cleared with full practice participation and no snap limitations after missing time, while Prescott has thrown for 3+ TDs in three straight games (including 261 yards and 3 TDs vs. Panthers) and now targets a top connection against Washington’s secondary. Croskey-Merritt provides bring-back upside in a potentially high-scoring script favoring Washington’s ground game, logging 17 carries for 61 yards last outing despite a fumble and exploding for 111 yards with 2 TDs previously, exploiting Dallas’s porous run defense that has allowed consistent RB production.

QB Plays

Jayden Daniels ($6,900)

Jayden Daniels continues to deliver consistent dual-threat production, averaging 21.7 DK points per game this season with three touchdowns in his most recent outing against the Bears, where he threw for 211 yards and added 52 rushing yards on 10 carries. Facing the Cowboys in a high-total game of 54.0 points, his projection of 24.7 DK points offers 3.59x value at just $6,900, ranking him sixth in tournament upside with a 20.8% boom rate. The Commanders’ pass-heavy tendency (+2.4% PROE) aligns perfectly with Daniels’ usage, providing a secure floor through his rushing volume while his passing efficiency sets up multi-TD ceilings in a dome matchup that favors steady output.

Daniels’ props validate his appeal, with a 223.5-yard passing line and 47.5 rushing yards reflecting market confidence in his 19-of-26 performance for 211 yards and a score in Week 6, plus 231 passing yards and 39 rushing in his return victory. The Cowboys’ pass-heavy opponent profile (+2.6% PROE) enhances game script opportunities for Daniels to exploit volume, especially with his red zone role driving touchdown potential at +160 odds. At 19.6% projected ownership and 15.9% optimal lineup rate, he combines tournament leverage with elite floor-ceiling dynamics, making him a cornerstone play for cash and GPP builds.

Honorable Mentions

• Dak Prescott ($6,500)
• Patrick Mahomes ($7,000)

RB Plays

Breece Hall ($6,300)

Breece Hall enters Week 7 with a massive workload edge after logging 22 carries in the Jets’ London matchup, his highest of the season, while adding receiving contributions in prior outings like his 113 rushing yards and 42 receiving yards against Dallas. His consistent 13.0 DK points per game average underscores a reliable floor as New York’s primary back, blending rushing volume with pass-catching upside that aligns with his 3.5 reception prop and 24.5 receiving yards line. At a $6,300 salary, Hall’s 18.1-point projection delivers 2.87x value, making him a cornerstone for cash and GPP builds with his dual-threat role securing steady production in a Jets offense leaning on the run.

The matchup against Carolina’s defense opens clear paths for Hall’s explosiveness, especially with the Jets holding a slight spread edge in a 41-point total game that favors ground control. His even-money TD odds and 69.5 rushing yards prop reflect market confidence in another big day, backed by a 22.9% boom rate that ranks him eighth in tournaments. High projected ownership at 26.6% positions him as tournament chalk with ceiling leverage, where his red-zone usage and 22.6% optimal lineup rate amplify the appeal for stacking with New York’s passing game in favorable weather.

Honorable Mentions

• Jonathan Taylor ($8,800)
• Josh Jacobs ($7,800)

WR Plays

Rashee Rice ($5,600)

Rashee Rice returns to action with his suspension lifted and Chiefs coach Andy Reid confirming no easing back into the lineup after more than a year away, setting the stage for immediate impact against the Raiders. His prior production showcases elite efficiency with consistent high-target volume and red zone shares, now amplified by Kansas City’s pass-heavy tendency at +7.6% PROE facing a run-focused Las Vegas defense at -3.3% PROE. Prop lines reflect market confidence with a 66.5-yard receiving total, 5.5 receptions, and +135 TD odds, aligning with his history of explosive outings that deliver multiple scores and 100-yard games when fully integrated.

This debut slate positions Rice as a tournament standout at $5,600, projecting 16.2 DK points for 2.89x value and a 20.3% boom rate that ranks him 16th overall in GPP appeal. High ownership at 25.7% provides leverage against the field average, especially in a game script favoring Chiefs dominance with a -12 spread and 45.5 total that boosts passing volume. His blend of secure floor from target reliability and ceiling from red zone opportunities makes him a core build at this salary, capitalizing on the Raiders’ vulnerabilities to wide receivers for another dominant performance.

Honorable Mentions

• Justin Jefferson ($7,600)
• CeeDee Lamb ($7,500)

TE Plays

Trey McBride ($5,700)

Trey McBride continues to deliver consistent production as Arizona’s primary tight end target, averaging 14.5 DK points per game this season with a recent Week 6 standout of eight receptions on 11 targets for 72 yards and a touchdown—his second score of the year and season highs in catches and yards. Working seamlessly with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett in Kyler Murray’s absence, McBride’s target volume remains elevated at double digits, aligning with prop lines of 6.5 receptions and 61.5 receiving yards that reflect market confidence in his role. His dual-threat usage in the passing game provides a reliable floor, while frequent red zone looks enhance his ceiling, making him a cornerstone for lineups at this salary.

Facing a run-heavy Green Bay defense in a dome matchup, McBride benefits from Arizona’s pass-heavy tendency with a +3.6% PROE, setting up ample opportunities against an opponent focused on the ground game at -3.4% PROE. Projected for 16.1 DK points with 2.82x value and a 17% boom rate, he ranks second in tournament scoring potential, offering leverage at 13.4% ownership below his 18.6% optimal lineup share. This combination of secure volume and explosive upside positions him as a featured play for high-upside GPP builds.

Honorable Mentions

• Zach Ertz ($3,800)
• Tyler Warren ($5,200)

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