FREE 11/07 NFL TNF Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

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Let there be some offense. There is an exciting divisional matchup ahead of us tonight as the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. When these teams played a few weeks ago, to say it was an exciting game would be an understatement. It was a great game from a fantasy perspective, as the Ravens defeated the Bengals by a score of 41-38. For the rematch, we have an over/under of 52.5, with the Ravens favored by six points. We have a lot to consider for Thursday’s action, so let’s jump right into some TNF DFS picks for Week 10.

Captain

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens ($17,100 DK/$15,500 FD)

The Bengals have found their groove from a team perspective, but overall, they have not been good against opposing quarterbacks this season. That is good news for Lamar Jackson, though, as he faces a Cincinnati team that has allowed the fourth most DFS points.

Jackson continues to be one of the better quarterback options in the league, throwing for 20 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Over the past four games, things have really been going well for Jackson, with 15 touchdowns in that stretch. If you need any additional convincing, Jackson has also added two touchdowns and 505 yards on the ground this year.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals ($15,600 DK/$14,000 FD)

In a game like this, where we are expecting an abundance of offense, targeting the quarterbacks is always going to be a preferred strategy. In going from Jackson to Joe Burrow, we do get some cost savings, but we also lose the rushing production.

Burrow also has 20 touchdown passes on the season but half of that total has come in two games. One of those games, though, did come against this same Baltimore team as Burrow threw for 392 yards and five touchdowns.

Flex Plays

Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,600 DK/$9,500 FD)

Cost savings, here we come. Tee Higgins is going to be out for another game, and that means we’ll see Mike Gesicki continue to step up to fill the void. Over the past two weeks, that means 12 catches of 14 targets for 173 yards. On Sunday, Gesicki also caught two touchdowns, and he is in line for a similar role tonight.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals ($10,800 DK/$13,000 FD)

Pairing an elite receiver with Burrow makes perfect sense tonight, and there are few better options than Ja’Marr Chase. He won’t have to compete with Higgins for targets and is also in the midst of another strong season. The Bengals struggle against opposing receivers this season and Chase has 55 catches for 717 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. Look for those numbers to increase tonight.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens ($11,200/$14,500 FD)

This is a situation where all running backs are not created equal. The Bengals have had success against opposing running backs this season, but Derrick Henry is no ordinary running back. He has at least one touchdown per game this season with 13 on the season. He has already eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark (1,052) with an average of 117 yards per game. When these teams faced each other earlier in the season, Henry gained 92 yards on 15 carries, which established a solid floor.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens ($9,600 DK/$12,000 FD)

We are expecting a lot of offense tonight, and that brings Zay Flowers into the equation. The acquisition of Diontae Johnson should help take some of the defensive focus away from Flowers. One issue, though, is that Flowers only has three touchdowns on the season, with two coming last week against Denver. However, there is no concern with the chemistry between Flowers and Jackson, as he has 654 yards on 46 catches this season.

Value Plays

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens ($4,200 DK/$10,000 FD)

No Isaiah Likely tonight means a larger role for Mark Andrews as he looks to find his footing this season. From a performance standpoint though, Andrews’ best game on the season, from two weeks ago, was just four catches for 47 yards. That same game saw Andrews catch two of his three touchdowns on the season. In a high-scoring game, there should be enough offense for Andrews to have a productive DFS performance.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Baltimore Ravens ($4,800 DK/$11,000 FD)

In his first real game with the Ravens, this is likely going to be a chalk situation tonight, based on the price. Last week, Diontae Johnson was on the field for just 17 of Baltimore’s 51 snaps and he wasn’t targeted. It was a good opportunity for Johnson to learn the offense and adjust to life in Baltimore. We saw Johnson have success with Andy Dalton earlier in the season, and playing with Jackson should make things even better for him.

Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals ($3,400 DK/$7,500 FD)

Once again, Andrei Iosivas will be starting with Tee Higgins sidelined. Last week he was targeted four times, but the problem is that he only caught one of those passes. The good news is that it was for his fourth touchdown of the season. Iosivas has a nose for the end zone, and he will be involved in the Cincinnati offense once again.

Fade

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens ($5,800 DK/$8,000 FD)

Rashod Bateman has made some big plays for the Ravens this season, but it hasn’t equated with consistent production. The price point will generate some buzz tonight, but with only three touchdowns this season, he is dependent upon finding the end zone. If that doesn’t happen, there isn’t enough other production, as Bateman generally doesn’t catch more than three or four passes per game.

TNF Prop Bets

Derrick Henry Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on DraftKings)

In just one of Henry’s last seven games, he has fallen short of that mark. We should note that in the game, Henry was still quite efficient, as he finished with 73 yards on just 11 carries. Baltimore continues to lean on Henry to establish tempo and control of the game, and he looks fully locked in.

Mike Gesicki Over 4.5 Receptions (+110 on DraftKings)

Grabbing plus odds is always desirable, and Gesicki is another favorable situation. Higgins will be out, which means the Cincinnati tight end will step in to fill that void. Gesicki has gone over this mark in each of the last two weeks, and the Bengals will need all of the offensive help they can get tonight.

Mike Gesicki Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on DraftKings)

Following the same logic as above, attacking Gesicki is going to be a popular option tonight, as the Bengals need help receiving it.

Diontae Johnson Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115 on DraftKings)

The Ravens didn’t acquire Johnson not to utilize him, and he can hit this mark with just one catch. There figures to be a lot of offense tonight, and Jackson will look to get his new weapon involved early.