FREE 02/01 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NHL slate offers a mix of tight matchups and high-scoring potential, giving DFS players plenty to consider. The Maple Leafs-Oilers game stands out with a 6.5 total, as both teams bring elite offensive firepower but questionable goaltending. Similarly, the Predators-Penguins matchup (also at 6.5) could see plenty of goals, especially with Alex Nedeljkovic in net for Pittsburgh. On the flip side, games like Wild-Senators and Jets-Capitals feature lower totals at 5.5, making them better spots to target goaltenders like Filip Gustavsson or Connor Hellebuyck.

Confirmed goalies are another key factor tonight, with Ilya Sorokin squaring off against Andrei Vasilevskiy in what could be a tightly contested Islanders-Lightning game (6.0 total). Meanwhile, Juuse Saros is always capable of stealing a game and could see plenty of volume against Pittsburgh’s top-heavy attack. For late-night action, the Red Wings-Flames matchup has a modest 5.5 total but features Dustin Wolf making his first start of the season for Calgary—an intriguing value option depending on your risk tolerance. With a variety of game environments and some clear stacking opportunities, it’s shaping up to be an exciting night for DFS builds.

Top Stacks

EDM PP1 ($24,000)

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard

The EDM PP1 stack of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard offers elite upside with a projected 44.3 points, driven by the league’s most dynamic offensive duo and a power-play quarterback in Bouchard. The stack’s strong correlation benefits from their heavy usage together in high-leverage power-play situations, maximizing point potential from goals and assists. While the $24,000 salary limits roster flexibility, the 1.85 pts/$1000 value remains competitive given their ceiling. With an average ownership of 16.2% and an optimal rate of 14.1%, it’s slightly over-owned but still viable for tournaments due to its raw scoring ability and leverage in high-scoring contests.

TOR PP1 ($22,700)

Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner

The TOR PP1 stack of Matthews, Nylander, and Marner offers elite upside with a projected 39.0 points and strong correlation as the team’s top power-play unit. Their combined salary of $22,700 is high but justified by their offensive ceiling and a solid value metric of 1.72 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of just 6.8%, this stack provides leverage in tournaments, especially given its 11.2% optimal rate, which outpaces expected ownership. This stack is best suited for GPP formats where its combination of raw point potential and low ownership creates significant edge in large-field contests.

NSH PP1 ($23,200)

Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Jonathan Marchessault

The NSH PP1 stack of Forsberg, Josi, and Marchessault offers strong upside due to their heavy involvement in high-leverage offensive situations, particularly on the power play. With a projected total of 40.2 points and a solid value of 1.73 pts/$1000, this stack provides reasonable efficiency given its $23,200 salary. The correlation between Forsberg and Josi is particularly noteworthy as they consistently drive offense together, while Marchessault adds goal-scoring potential. At an average ownership of 11.4% and an optimal rate of 10.5%, they present moderate tournament viability; not overly contrarian but capable of differentiating lineups if paired strategically with lower-owned plays elsewhere.

C Plays

Top Play: Dylan Larkin ($6,200)

Dylan Larkin ($6,200) stands out as a top center option in tournaments tonight with his strong combination of recent form and value. Over his last 14 games, Larkin has been on fire, racking up 19 points (9 goals, 10 assists) while maintaining consistent involvement in the Red Wings’ offense. His matchup against Calgary is appealing, as the Flames have been inconsistent defensively and rank in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed per game. With a projection of 12.95 DraftKings points and a value rating of 2.09x, Larkin offers both a solid floor and upside for his salary.

The main consideration here is ownership, as Larkin’s projected ownership of 15.9% is significantly higher than the field average. While that level of chalk can sometimes be a concern in tournaments, it’s likely justified given his recent production and top-ranked tournament projection at his position. Additionally, he appears in nearly 14% of optimal lineups, reinforcing his viability despite the popularity. If you’re looking for a high-floor play with legitimate ceiling potential at center, Larkin fits the bill—even if you may need to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup to account for his elevated ownership.

Honorable Mentions

• Leon Draisaitl ($8,600)
• Connor McDavid ($9,000)
• Auston Matthews ($8,800)

W Plays

Top Play: Nikita Kucherov ($8,900)

Nikita Kucherov checks in as one of the top plays on tonight’s slate, despite his hefty $8,900 salary. His elite points-per-game pace (1.56, best in the NHL) and power play production make him a high-floor, high-ceiling option against a defensively sound but unspectacular Islanders team. While New York tends to suppress scoring chances, they rank in the bottom half of the league in penalty kill efficiency, which bodes well for Kucherov given his heavy involvement on Tampa Bay’s top power play unit. With 75 points in 48 games this season and consistent shot volume (168 shots), his ability to deliver fantasy production remains unmatched.

At 15.5% projected ownership, Kucherov will be popular but not overwhelmingly so relative to his upside and optimal lineup rate of 17.8%. The chalk appears justified here—his combination of raw projection (16.54 DK points) and strong value (1.86x) makes him a priority spend-up option in both cash games and tournaments. While he won’t fly under the radar, fading him could be risky given his potential to break the slate if Tampa Bay’s offense clicks tonight. If you’re looking to differentiate in GPPs, consider pairing him with lower-owned Lightning teammates or stacking elsewhere while still recognizing the immense ceiling he brings to any lineup.

Honorable Mentions

• Filip Forsberg ($8,500)
• Brady Tkachuk ($7,300)
• Bryan Rust ($6,300)

D Plays

Top Play: Thomas Chabot ($4,200)

Thomas Chabot ($4,200) stands out as a strong value play on tonight’s slate, especially given his offensive role and recent production. With a projection of 9.65 DraftKings points and a 2.3x value rating, he’s well-positioned to exceed expectations at this salary. His power play involvement and ability to generate shots (as evidenced by his five-shot performance against Washington) make him a high-floor option with upside in tournaments. The matchup against Minnesota isn’t ideal, but the Senators’ tendency to push the pace creates opportunities for Chabot to contribute offensively, particularly if Ottawa’s power play gets rolling.

At 6.5% projected ownership, Chabot falls into the moderate range—enough to avoid being overly chalky while still providing leverage relative to his optimal lineup rate of 9.6%. His recent form (a goal and an assist in his last outing) only adds to the appeal at this price point, especially given his consistent ice time and offensive involvement. While he may not have slate-breaking upside, Chabot offers excellent value for tournament players looking to round out their lineups without sacrificing ceiling potential on defense.

Honorable Mentions

• Roman Josi ($7,800)
• Evan Bouchard ($6,400)
• Erik Karlsson ($5,000)

G Plays

Top Play: Cam Talbot ($7,400)

Cam Talbot ($7,400) stands out as a strong tournament option in Saturday’s matchup against Calgary. The Flames have struggled offensively this season, ranking 28th in goals per game (2.68), which gives Talbot a favorable opportunity to build on his recent hot streak. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed just four goals on 82 shots, boasting an impressive .951 save percentage. At his salary, Talbot offers solid value (1.9x) and appears in 13.6% of optimal lineups, which reflects both his upside and the strength of the matchup.

The main concern with Talbot is his relatively high ownership at 12.5%, well above the field average for goalies. However, given his recent form and the low-scoring tendencies of Calgary’s offense, the chalk seems justified in this case—especially for tournaments where securing a win and save volume is critical. With Detroit playing well in front of him and Calgary struggling to generate offense consistently, Talbot offers both a stable floor and realistic upside at this price point.

Honorable Mentions

• Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,100)
• Alex Nedeljkovic ($7,200)
• Filip Gustavsson ($7,500)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!