FREE 02/04 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 10-game NHL slate offers a solid mix of high-total matchups and strong goaltending performances to navigate. The CBJ-BUF and EDM-STL games stand out with 6.0 totals, making them appealing for DFS stacks, while the NJD-PIT matchup also carries offensive upside at the same total. On the other hand, defensive-minded games like MIN-BOS (5.5 total) could limit scoring but provide opportunities to target value plays or standout goaltenders like Jeremy Swayman.

Speaking of goalies, there are several intriguing options in net tonight. Ilya Sorokin faces Vegas in what could be a low-scoring contest with a 5.5 total, while Andrei Vasilevskiy looks to lock things down at home against Ottawa in another projected tighter game. For those targeting contrarian plays, Joseph Woll and Dustin Wolf square off in Calgary, where a 5.5 total might suppress ownership despite potential value from key skaters on both sides. Balancing high-event matchups with solid goalie pivots will be key on this slate.

Top Stacks

BOS PP1 ($18,900)

David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy

The BOS PP1 stack of David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and Charlie McAvoy offers a solid combination of projected production and value. With a total salary of $18,900, the stack is projected for 37.1 points, resulting in a respectable value of 1.96 pts/$1000. The average ownership is moderate at 8.5%, which provides some leverage relative to its optimal lineup rate of 9.4%, indicating it is slightly underutilized in lineups compared to its potential upside. As a power-play unit (PP1), this stack benefits from concentrated scoring opportunities, making it an efficient option for DFS lineups with balanced exposure to ownership and upside metrics.

NJD PP1 ($20,600)

Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Bratt

The NJD PP1 stack of Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, and Jesper Bratt offers a solid projection of 37.6 points at a total salary of $20,600, resulting in a value of 1.83 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of 10.2% and an optimal lineup rate of 9.2%, the stack is moderately popular but slightly underperforming in terms of its likelihood to appear in the optimal lineup relative to its ownership. This makes it a balanced option with strong raw point potential but less leverage compared to higher-optimal, lower-owned stacks. As a power-play unit, it benefits from concentrated scoring upside within a correlated group, maximizing efficiency for DFS tournaments.

EDM PP1 ($23,700)

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard

The EDM PP1 stack of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard is projected for 42.7 points at a total salary of $23,700, resulting in a solid value of 1.80 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of 9.9% and an optimal lineup rate of 9.0%, this stack offers a balanced profile in terms of leverage, as its optimal rate closely mirrors its expected popularity. The elite scoring potential of this power-play unit makes it a high-ceiling option, though its relatively high cost requires careful roster construction to maximize value across the rest of the lineup. Overall, the data suggests this stack is a strong but fairly owned play with efficient pricing relative to its projection.

C Plays

Top Play: Auston Matthews ($8,700)

Auston Matthews ($8,700) is in a strong spot tonight as the Maple Leafs take on Calgary. With 20 goals and 20 assists in 37 games, Matthews has been a consistent producer, and his 148 shots on goal highlight his elite floor. Calgary’s defense is middle of the pack, but they’ve struggled to contain high-volume shooters, which plays right into Matthews’ strengths. His projection of 17.5 DK points and a solid 2.01x value rating make him one of the top center options on the slate, especially given his prominent role on Toronto’s top power play unit.

At an expected ownership of 12%, Matthews will be popular but not overwhelming chalk. Given that he appears in 16% of optimal lineups, the field might actually be underweight relative to his upside. While his salary is steep, it’s justified by his combination of shot volume and goal-scoring potential in this matchup. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in tournaments or need a reliable anchor for cash games, Matthews fits the bill perfectly tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Jack Hughes ($8,300)
• Jack Eichel ($7,700)
• Connor McDavid ($9,000)

W Plays

Top Play: David Pastrnak ($8,600)

David Pastrnak ($8,600) is in a prime spot tonight against Minnesota. He’s been on an absolute tear lately, with 14 goals and 27 points over his last 14 games, including a current 10-game point streak. His shot volume remains elite, and with Boston’s top-six clicking offensively, he’s in a great position to deliver both floor and ceiling value. Minnesota has been middle of the pack defensively this season, but their penalty kill ranks in the bottom half of the league—something Pastrnak can exploit given his heavy power-play role. With a projection of 17.1 DK points and appearing in nearly 18% of optimal lineups, he’s one of the best plays on the slate despite the hefty salary.

At 14.9% projected ownership, Pastrnak will be chalky relative to most players, but it’s well-earned chalk given his recent form and ability to dominate any matchup. While this makes him less appealing for tournaments if you’re chasing leverage, fading him entirely could be risky given his high floor from shot volume alone. If you’re building around him in GPPs, consider pairing him with lower-owned Bruins teammates or finding contrarian plays elsewhere to balance out your lineup. In cash games, he’s as close to a lock as it gets for his price range tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Nikita Kucherov ($8,800)
• Leon Draisaitl ($8,500)
• Alex Ovechkin ($6,800)

D Plays

Top Play: Ivan Provorov ($3,600)

Ivan Provorov ($3,600) stands out as a strong value option on tonight’s slate, particularly in tournaments. Projected for 8.9 DK points with a solid 2.5x value, he’s priced affordably for someone seeing heavy ice time and contributing across multiple categories. Provorov has averaged over 29 minutes of ice time recently while stepping into a larger role due to injuries on Columbus’ blue line, which boosts his floor through blocked shots (80 this season) and shot volume (62). The matchup against Buffalo is appealing as well, with the Sabres allowing plenty of scoring chances to defensemen, making his potential for secondary points or power-play production intriguing.

The main concern here is ownership. At 14.3%, Provorov is significantly more popular than the field average of 2.4%, so he’s chalky for a mid-range defenseman. However, his price and role justify that popularity—he offers excellent point-per-dollar upside and appears in nearly 6% of optimal lineups. If you’re playing cash games or smaller tournaments, he’s a safe play due to his floor and projected involvement. In larger-field GPPs, though, you may want to consider pivoting to lower-owned options if you’re looking for leverage without sacrificing too much production potential.

Honorable Mentions

• Rasmus Dahlin ($6,400)
• Dougie Hamilton ($6,000)
• Evan Bouchard ($6,200)

G Plays

Top Play: Joseph Woll ($8,000)

Joseph Woll ($8,000) offers an intriguing mix of safety and upside in his matchup against the Flames. Calgary’s offense has been underwhelming this season, ranking 28th in goals per game (2.65), which lowers Woll’s risk in this spot. Coming off a monster 45-save performance against Edmonton, Woll is proving capable of high-volume workloads, and his .909 save percentage on the year reflects steady play. At $8,000, his value projection of 1.8x makes him a viable option, particularly given Toronto’s ability to control play and limit high-danger chances.

However, Woll’s expected ownership (13.8%) is significantly higher than the field average for goalies (2.4%), making him a chalkier option in tournaments. While his strong recent form and favorable matchup justify the popularity to some extent, this level of ownership does limit his appeal as a leverage play. He appears in 10.2% of optimal lineups, so he’s certainly worth consideration if you’re prioritizing safety at goalie. That said, there are opportunities to differentiate elsewhere if you’re looking to avoid the crowd at this position.

Honorable Mentions

• Ilya Sorokin ($7,900)
• Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,300)
• Logan Thompson ($7,800)

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