FREE 03/12 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 4-game NHL slate offers a mix of high-scoring potential and intriguing goalie matchups, making it an interesting one for DFS. The Sabres-Red Wings game leads the way with a 6.5 total, and both Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Petr Mrazek in net could open the door for offensive upside. Meanwhile, the Canadiens-Seattle matchup also carries a 6.0 total, with Joey Daccord looking to hold down the Kraken crease against rookie Jakub Dobes in his first NHL start.

On the lower-total side, the Canucks-Flames (5.5) might not scream offense, but Dustin Wolf in goal for Calgary is worth noting as he makes his season debut. Similarly, Anaheim heads to Arizona in a game with a 6.0 total where John Gibson faces Karel Vejmelka—two goalies who’ve seen plenty of volume this season. With just four games on tap, finding value plays and leveraging lower-owned stacks will be key to separating yourself from the pack tonight.

Top Stacks

UTA PP1 ($20,000)

Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev

The UTA PP1 stack of Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther, and Mikhail Sergachev offers a projected point total of 38.1 at a combined salary of $20,000, resulting in a solid value of 1.91 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of 19.9% and an optimal lineup rate of 19.6%, this stack is appropriately leveraged, as its likelihood to appear in the optimal lineup closely aligns with its ownership percentage. While not drastically under-owned, it provides balanced exposure relative to its upside and cost efficiency, making it a viable option for DFS lineups seeking strong production with reasonable ownership levels.

CGY PP1 ($17,600)

Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar, Jonathan Huberdeau

The CGY PP1 stack of Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar, and Jonathan Huberdeau offers a strong combination of projected production and value. With a total salary of $17,600, the stack delivers 32.4 projected points, resulting in a solid value of 1.84 points per $1000. Ownership sits at an average of 15.8%, which is relatively balanced given its optimal lineup rate of 16.5%, suggesting the stack is slightly underutilized in comparison to its chances of being optimal. This balance between ownership and optimal rate makes it a viable option for both cash games and tournaments, as it provides high-end upside without excessive chalk risk.

C Plays

Top Play: Nazem Kadri ($6,300)

Nazem Kadri ($6,300) profiles as a strong play in tonight’s slate, particularly given his top tournament rank and appearance in nearly 23% of optimal lineups. His recent production has been excellent, with five goals and 12 points over his last 11 games, and his role on Calgary’s power play adds to his appeal against a Vancouver team that has struggled at times with discipline. At 1.92x value and a projection of 12.1 DK points, he offers both a solid floor and upside at this price point, making him worth consideration in all formats.

The biggest question here is ownership. At nearly 24%, Kadri will be one of the chalkier options on the slate, which could limit his appeal in tournaments where leverage is key. However, the high ownership seems justified given his recent form and strong metrics across the board. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Kadri’s combination of value and upside makes him a safe yet impactful option. For those looking to differentiate lineups, pivoting to lower-owned centers in similar price ranges might make sense, but fading him outright comes with risk given how often he appears in optimal builds.

Honorable Mentions

• Dylan Larkin ($7,500)
• Barrett Hayton ($4,900)

W Plays

Top Play: Clayton Keller ($7,300)

Clayton Keller ($7,300) stands out as a top-tier option in tonight’s slate with an elite combination of floor, ceiling, and opportunity. His matchup against Anaheim is highly favorable, as the Ducks have struggled defensively all season, ranking near the bottom of the league in both goals allowed and penalty kill efficiency. Keller has been red-hot since the 4 Nations Face-Off break, racking up 12 points in his last seven games, including significant contributions on the power play. With a projection of 14.09 DK points and appearing in over 28% of optimal lineups, he provides strong value at 1.93x despite his higher salary. His ability to generate offense consistently makes him one of the safest plays at wing tonight.

The one drawback here is his ownership, which sits at 20.5%, well above the field average. While this makes him a chalky option, it’s chalk that appears justified given his recent production and matchup upside against Anaheim’s porous defense. If you’re looking to differentiate in tournaments, consider pairing him with lower-owned teammates or stacking him creatively to avoid duplication with other lineups. Overall, Keller’s strong combination of form, opportunity, and game environment outweighs any concerns about ownership, making him a cornerstone piece for both cash games and GPPs.

Honorable Mentions

• Cole Caufield ($6,800)
• Dylan Guenther ($7,200)

D Plays

Top Play: Mikhail Sergachev ($5,500)

Mikhail Sergachev ($5,500) stands out as one of the top defensive options on tonight’s slate, and his strong metrics back that up. Projected for 11.2 DraftKings points with a solid 2.04x value rating, he also appears in 19.2% of optimal lineups—an elite mark for his position. The matchup against Anaheim is favorable, as they rank near the bottom of the league in both shots allowed and goals against per game. Sergachev’s role on the power play further boosts his appeal here, especially given his recent production (five points in his last four games). At this price point, he offers a strong floor with his shot-blocking ability (112 blocks on the season) while still providing upside through offensive contributions.

The primary concern with Sergachev is his high ownership at 21.5%, which makes him chalkier than most defensemen on the slate. However, this feels like justified chalk given his combination of value and ceiling in this spot. If you’re playing cash games or single-entry tournaments, he’s tough to fade due to his consistency and usage. In larger-field GPPs, you’ll want to consider how much exposure you want relative to the field—while there’s some merit to pivoting for leverage, Sergachev’s optimal percentage suggests he’s worth anchoring many lineups despite the ownership.

Honorable Mentions

• MacKenzie Weegar ($6,200)
• Moritz Seider ($6,600)

G Plays

Top Play: Kevin Lankinen ($7,400)

Kevin Lankinen ($7,400) offers intriguing value as a tournament play in tonight’s matchup against Calgary. While his recent form has been shaky—posting a 2.85 GAA and .884 save percentage over his last five starts—the Flames rank in the bottom half of the league in goals scored per game, which could help stabilize his floor. At $7,400, Lankinen’s 1.47x value and 16.86% optimal lineup appearance rate stand out among mid-tier goalie options, making him an appealing choice for GPPs where salary relief is needed.

Ownership at 14.1% puts him slightly above the field average but not into full chalk territory, meaning he won’t sink your lineup from a leverage perspective. However, this moderate ownership combined with his inconsistency introduces some risk if Calgary generates quality chances early. Still, for those looking to pivot off more expensive netminders or differentiate within lineups featuring high-salary skaters, Lankinen’s price point and potential upside make him worth considering in tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Karel Vejmelka ($8,300)
• Dustin Wolf ($8,000)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!