FREE 03/24 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

It’s a compact 4-game NHL slate tonight, and while the smaller player pool narrows options, there are still some intriguing spots to target. The DET-Hockey Club matchup carries one of the higher totals on the slate at 6.0, making it appealing for offense-heavy stacks. Meanwhile, the VAN-NJD game has the lowest total at 5.0, and with Thatcher Demko and Jacob Markstrom confirmed in net, this one could shape up as more of a defensive grind.

Goaltending is front and center tonight with several elite options in play. Ilya Sorokin stands out in the CBJ-NYI game (O/U: 6.0) as a strong anchor for cash lineups, while Jake Oettinger gets a solid home matchup against MIN in a game with a manageable 5.5 total. For GPPs, consider taking advantage of lower ownership on underdog skaters from tighter matchups like VAN-NJD or MIN-DAL to differentiate your builds.

Top Stacks

CBJ PP1 ($19,200)

Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan, Kirill Marchenko

The CBJ PP1 stack, consisting of Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan, and Kirill Marchenko, offers a projected 33.3 points at a combined salary of $19,200, translating to a solid value of 1.73 points per $1000. With an average ownership of 15.1% and an optimal lineup rate of 16.0%, this stack provides a slightly positive leverage opportunity, indicating it is being rostered at levels consistent with its probability of success in optimal lineups. The power-play correlation within the stack enhances its ceiling potential, making it an efficient option for both value and lineup construction without being overly chalky relative to its optimal rate.

DET PP1 ($18,500)

Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider

The DET PP1 stack of Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, and Moritz Seider offers a strong combination of projected production and value, with 33.9 projected points at a salary of $18,500, resulting in a solid value of 1.83 pts/$1000. Its average ownership sits at 13.6%, which is reasonable for a high-upside power-play unit, while its optimal lineup rate of 15.5% slightly exceeds its ownership rate, indicating it may be slightly underutilized relative to its potential upside. This data-driven edge makes the stack an appealing option for DFS lineups, balancing strong projections with moderate ownership in GPP contexts.

NJD PP1 ($20,400)

Timo Meier, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt

The NJD PP1 stack of Timo Meier, Nico Hischier, and Jesper Bratt offers a solid combination of projected production and value. With a total salary of $20,400, the stack is projected for 34.5 points, resulting in a respectable value of 1.69 pts/$1000. Ownership sits at an average of 12.8%, which is moderate but not overly contrarian, while the optimal lineup rate of 15.5% indicates the stack’s potential to outperform its ownership relative to other options. This slight positive leverage (optimal rate > ownership) makes the NJD PP1 an appealing choice for DFS lineups seeking a balance between upside and reasonable popularity.

C Plays

Top Play: Dylan Larkin ($6,500)

Dylan Larkin is in a strong spot tonight at $6,500, making him a top option at center despite his relatively high projected ownership (20.2%). His consistent production this season, including 62 points and 213 shots on goal through 69 games, provides both a solid floor and ceiling. The matchup against Utah’s defense presents opportunity, as his power-play role remains key for Detroit’s offensive upside. With a projection of 11.8 DraftKings points and appearing in over 22% of optimal lineups, Larkin offers strong value at 1.82x his salary.

The elevated ownership isn’t ideal for tournaments, but it’s justified given his role and recent form—he’s recorded nine points in his last 10 games, including two power-play assists in his latest outing. While he won’t differentiate your lineup much, fading him could be risky given his combination of shot volume and offensive involvement. If you’re looking to pivot off the chalk, consider pairing Larkin with lower-owned Red Wings teammates or stacking elsewhere to create leverage while still taking advantage of his favorable spot.

Honorable Mentions

• Bo Horvat ($7,300)
• Logan Cooley ($5,500)

W Plays

Top Play: Dylan Guenther ($6,400)

Dylan Guenther ($6,400) is one of the more intriguing options on tonight’s slate, particularly in tournaments. His 17.2% optimal lineup rate suggests strong upside, and his projected 11.95 DK points make him a solid value at 1.87x his salary. Facing Detroit, a team that has been middle-of-the-pack defensively, Guenther’s role as a shoot-first winger on Utah’s second line—and his consistent power-play involvement—positions him well to capitalize on scoring chances. With nine game-winning goals this season and steady shot volume (171 shots in 57 games), he offers both floor and ceiling appeal.

The main concern here is ownership, as Guenther’s projected 19.7% roster rate makes him one of the chalkier plays on the slate. While that level of popularity might deter some DFS players, it seems justified given his recent form (three goals and two assists in March) and the matchup against Detroit’s penalty kill, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. If you’re comfortable eating chalk in tournaments, Guenther is a strong option who could easily pay off his salary with multi-point upside. However, if you’re looking for leverage elsewhere, pivoting to lower-owned wingers in similar price ranges might be worth considering.

Honorable Mentions

• Clayton Keller ($6,900)
• Timo Meier ($7,100)

D Plays

Top Play: Zach Werenski ($7,600)

Zach Werenski comes in as one of the highest-owned defensemen on the slate at 21.7%, and for good reason. He’s been producing at an elite level, with four multi-point efforts in his last seven games, including three goals and six assists over that span. His role as Columbus’ top blueliner gives him consistent exposure to all situations, including the power play, where he’s tallied 21 points this season. The Islanders are a middle-of-the-pack matchup defensively, but their penalty kill has been vulnerable at times, which adds to Werenski’s upside given his 20-goal campaign and 220 shots on net. At $7,600, his value metric (1.81x) and optimal percentage (21.4%) suggest he’s priced fairly for both cash games and tournaments.

The biggest question here is whether his high ownership is worth eating in GPPs. While chalky defensemen can sometimes be fade candidates due to limited ceilings compared to forwards, Werenski’s offensive involvement sets him apart. His recent production combined with his heavy minutes and multi-category contributions (blocked shots and plus-minus) provides both a solid floor and a ceiling worth chasing. If you’re looking to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup, Werenski makes sense as a core play despite the ownership—he has the tools to justify it in this spot.

Honorable Mentions

• Noah Dobson ($7,000)
• Quinn Hughes ($6,800)

G Plays

Top Play: Ilya Sorokin ($8,000)

Ilya Sorokin ($8,000) is in a prime spot tonight against the Columbus Blue Jackets, making him a top-tier goaltending option. Columbus ranks near the bottom of the league in offensive production, which bodes well for Sorokin’s ability to limit goals while maintaining a solid save floor. He’s projected for 12.8 DraftKings points and appears in 17.6% of optimal lineups, highlighting his strong combination of safety and upside. With a .919 save percentage over his last three starts and three straight wins, his recent form reinforces his reliability in this matchup.

At 16.6% projected ownership, Sorokin will be one of the chalkier plays on the slate, but it’s chalk that looks justified given the matchup and his value at 1.6x. The Islanders are favored at home, and Sorokin’s heavy workload—starting six of the last seven games—adds to his appeal as a high-floor anchor for both cash games and tournaments. While his ownership could make him less appealing in large-field GPPs if you’re looking to differentiate, he remains a strong foundational piece for lineup construction across most formats tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Jake Oettinger ($8,200)
• Jacob Markstrom ($7,800)

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