FREE 03/06 PGA Cheat Sheet: Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Plays

The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill is set to bring together 45 of the top 50 players in the world for one of the most challenging tests on the PGA Tour. With a 72-man field and a cut rule favoring top-50 and ties, DFS roster construction becomes even more intriguing. Bay Hill’s demanding layout, featuring long par-3s, scorable par-5s, and lightning-fast Bermuda greens, rewards well-rounded players who excel off the tee and with their short game. Pricing this week is tight, with no clear-cut value plays under $7K, making it critical to nail your mid-range selections while deciding whether to pay up for stars like Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy.

Ownership will likely concentrate around a handful of elite options priced above $10K, but taking calculated risks on lower-owned pivots in the $8K-$9K range could be key to differentiating your lineups. With softer conditions potentially in play due to early-week rain, approach play may take on added importance compared to past years. Keep an eye on weather updates and focus on players who can capitalize on scoring opportunities while avoiding big numbers in tough stretches. Let’s dive into our top plays for this slate.

Premium Plays ($10,000+)

Top Play: Scottie Scheffler ($12,000)

Scottie Scheffler comes into the Arnold Palmer Invitational as one of the most expensive options on the slate at $12,000, and his high ownership (31.3%) reflects both his elite skill set and recent form. While he hasn’t secured a win in three consecutive starts, his T3 finish at The Genesis Invitational highlighted his ability to contend even when parts of his game aren’t firing on all cylinders. Scheffler’s consistency is hard to ignore—he’s gained strokes tee-to-green in 12 straight events and ranks second in SG: Around the Green over his last few starts, a skill set that could prove critical on Bay Hill’s demanding greens and penal rough. His 73.1% make-cut rate provides stability for cash lineups, while his 19.3% optimal lineup percentage suggests strong upside despite the hefty price tag.

The elevated ownership is certainly something to consider in tournaments, but it’s justified given Scheffler’s combination of form and course fit. Bay Hill rewards elite ball-strikers who can also scramble effectively, and Scheffler checks both boxes. While his salary limits roster flexibility, he projects for 83.2 DraftKings points—a ceiling worth chasing in GPPs if you can differentiate elsewhere in your lineup. Ultimately, fading him will be a contrarian move, but it comes with significant risk given his ability to contend even without his A-game.

Other Premium Options

• Rory McIlroy ($10,800, MakeCut: 65.8%, Own: 21.1%)
• Xander Schauffele ($10,100, MakeCut: 61.0%, Own: 12.1%)

Mid-Range Plays ($8,000-$9,999)

Top Play: Justin Thomas ($9,400)

Justin Thomas ($9,400) presents an intriguing option for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, though there are some trade-offs to consider. His recent form is solid, with a top-10 finish at The Genesis Invitational where he gained over eight strokes on approach—an elite metric that underscores his iron play consistency. However, his struggles off the tee and on the greens temper expectations slightly. With a make-cut percentage of just 59.3%, his floor is somewhat concerning for this salary range, especially on a demanding course like Bay Hill that penalizes mistakes in all areas of the game. Still, Thomas’ high ceiling, as evidenced by his five top-10s in his last seven starts, makes him viable for tournaments if you’re banking on another strong ball-striking week.

At 17.1% projected ownership—double the field average—Thomas will be one of the chalkier plays in this price range. While this level of rostership is warranted given his upside and recent form, it’s important to weigh whether he’s worth eating the chalk considering his inconsistencies off the tee and around the green. His optimal lineup percentage (15.9%) suggests he’s fairly priced but not necessarily underappreciated by DFS players. If you’re targeting leverage or looking to differentiate your lineups, there are lower-owned options with comparable risk-reward profiles in this salary range. However, if you believe in Thomas’ ability to capitalize on his elite approach play and find a spark with the putter, he remains a strong tournament option despite elevated ownership.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Collin Morikawa ($9,800, MakeCut: 64.1%, Own: 20.4%)
• Russell Henley ($8,800, MakeCut: 54.5%, Own: 14.8%)
• Ludvig Aberg ($9,900, MakeCut: 59.0%, Own: 20.5%)

Value Plays ($7,000-$7,999)

First Value Play: Ben Griffin ($7,600)

Ben Griffin ($7,600) presents an intriguing value play at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His recent form is hard to ignore, with back-to-back T4 finishes at the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic showcasing his strong all-around game. At PGA National last week, Griffin ranked eighth in Strokes Gained: Putting and tied for second in driving accuracy—two metrics that could translate well to Bay Hill’s demanding layout, where precision off the tee and a hot putter are key. While his 48.1% make-cut percentage this season isn’t stellar, his current form suggests he’s trending in the right direction, and his 12.9% optimal lineup rate highlights his potential upside at this price point.

Griffin’s projected ownership of 10.7% is slightly above field average but not high enough to avoid him outright, especially given his combination of value (8.8x) and recent results. He may not have a long track record in stronger fields like this one, but his ability to string together consistent rounds makes him a viable option for both cash games and tournaments. If he can maintain the accuracy and putting touch he displayed over the past two weeks, Griffin could outperform expectations again this week.

Second Value Play: J.J. Spaun ($7,000)

J.J. Spaun ($7,000) offers intriguing value at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, especially given his recent form and metrics. His T2 finish at the Cognizant Classic showcased a strong short game, gaining 7.2 strokes around the green and on the putting surfaces combined. That type of scrambling ability could be critical at Bay Hill, where challenging greens and thick rough often demand creativity. Additionally, Spaun’s sixth-place ranking in Strokes Gained: Approach at Torrey Pines earlier this season highlights his iron play, which will be essential on a course that rewards precision into its demanding greens. While his make-cut percentage (47.6%) is somewhat concerning, his solid projection of 66.4 DraftKings points and top-10 tournament rank suggest he has upside relative to his $7,000 salary.

At 9.1% projected ownership, Spaun falls in line with field averages, making him neither a chalky nor contrarian play. This moderate rostership aligns well with his profile as a high-upside value option who fits both cash games and tournaments due to his optimal lineup percentage (13.1%). The risk lies in consistency—Spaun has missed several cuts this season—but if he continues building on recent momentum from two top-three finishes this year, he could easily outperform expectations here. His combination of price point, short-game prowess, and approach play makes him worth considering as a mid-tier option for DFS lineups this week.

Other Value Options

• Taylor Pendrith ($7,900, MakeCut: 53.4%, Own: 13.5%)
• Min Woo Lee ($7,500, MakeCut: 45.8%, Own: 8.9%)
• Max Greyserman ($7,100, MakeCut: 48.3%, Own: 9.3%)

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