FREE 03/20 PGA Cheat Sheet: Valspar Championship DFS Plays

The PGA Tour wraps up the Florida Swing this week with the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course. Known for its challenging layout, including the infamous “Snake Pit” closing stretch, this event will test players’ long irons, scrambling, and putting inside 10 feet. With a full field of 154 golfers and an average salary of $7,016 on DraftKings, roster construction will require careful planning. While a few big names like Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas headline the field, ownership is expected to concentrate heavily on just two players above 20%, and there are no standout value plays offering both high upside and consistent cut-making ability.

Copperhead’s narrow fairways, undulating greens, and five long par-3s make it one of the tougher tests on Tour. Scoring conditions may be slightly easier this year due to softer course conditions following recent storms, but par remains a solid score on most holes. This setup favors accurate iron play and strong scrambling over raw distance off the tee. With pricing skewed toward a handful of high-end options and no clear-cut values in the $6K range, finding balance in your lineups will be critical for success. Let’s dive into our top plays for this slate.

Premium Plays ($10,000+)

Top Play: Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300)

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300) is shaping up as one of the more popular plays this week at the Valspar Championship, and it’s easy to see why. His recent form is excellent, with four consecutive top-25 finishes, including a T14 at THE PLAYERS and a T11 at Bay Hill. Fleetwood’s tee-to-green game has been rock solid in 2025, gaining at least 4.9 strokes in each start this year. That ball-striking prowess aligns well with Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course, where precision on approach shots is critical. He’s also shown an affinity for this track in the past, finishing T3 here in 2023 while gaining 7.5 strokes putting across two prior appearances. With an 82.4% make-cut rate and solid projection metrics (73.5 DK points), Fleetwood offers a reliable floor with upside for contention.

The main concern with Fleetwood is his elevated ownership, projected at over 25%, making him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While that level of popularity can be risky in tournaments, it feels warranted given his combination of course fit, recent form, and cut equity—especially since he ranks 12th in cash-game value this week. If you’re building tournament lineups, you’ll need to decide whether to eat the chalk or pivot to lower-owned options with similar upside. However, for cash formats or single-entry builds, Fleetwood’s consistency and strong history at Innisbrook make him a justifiable centerpiece despite his price tag and high rostership.

Other Premium Options

• Sepp Straka ($10,000, MakeCut: 75.7%, Own: 22.9%)
• Justin Thomas ($10,800, MakeCut: 77.2%, Own: 19.4%)
• Xander Schauffele ($10,500, MakeCut: 78.2%, Own: 15.3%)

Mid-Range Plays ($8,000-$9,999)

Top Play: Michael Kim ($8,900)

Michael Kim ($8,900) presents an interesting option at the Valspar Championship, especially given his recent form and statistical profile. While he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS last week, it’s worth noting that TPC Sawgrass is notoriously unpredictable, and prior to that, Kim had rattled off five consecutive top-15 finishes, including a solo fourth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His ability to consistently contend highlights his strong all-around game, which should translate well to the demanding Copperhead Course. With a 70.2% make-cut rate and a solid projection of 66 DraftKings points (7.41x value), Kim offers both safety and upside in this mid-to-high salary range.

However, his projected ownership of 18.2% makes him one of the chalkier plays this week, which could limit his appeal in large-field GPPs. That said, the elevated rostership seems justified given his recent results and optimal lineup percentage of 16.6%, indicating he has a legitimate chance to outperform others in this price tier. If you’re building for cash games or prefer a balanced lineup approach, Kim is a strong option due to his consistency and course fit. For tournaments, consider whether you’re comfortable eating the chalk or pivoting to lower-owned players with similar upside in this range.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Shane Lowry ($9,400, MakeCut: 72.3%, Own: 17.3%)
• Lucas Glover ($8,800, MakeCut: 65.3%, Own: 14.0%)
• Sam Burns ($9,800, MakeCut: 71.8%, Own: 11.5%)

Value Plays ($7,000-$7,999)

First Value Play: Harry Hall ($7,300)

Harry Hall ($7,300) offers intriguing value for the Valspar Championship, particularly in GPP formats. His 8.27x value projection and 11.6% optimal lineup rate highlight his potential to outperform his modest salary. While Hall’s make-cut percentage of 63% isn’t elite, it’s solid enough at this price point, especially given his ability to generate birdies and score well when he makes the weekend. His putting remains a clear strength—ranking fourth in putts per GIR at the Mexico Open—and that skill set should translate well to the challenging greens at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course. The T34 finish at Vidanta showcased both upside (a first-round 64) and inconsistency (struggles with approach play), but his around-the-green game gives him a safety net on a layout where scrambling is often critical.

At just 5.5% projected ownership, Hall provides moderate leverage relative to similarly priced players while maintaining strong tournament appeal as the top-ranked golfer in both cash and tournament value metrics this week. His low rostership ensures differentiation without sacrificing upside, making him a viable option for those looking to balance risk and reward in their lineups. While recent results have been uneven, Hall’s ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities makes him an intriguing mid-tier option worth considering across formats.

Second Value Play: Kevin Roy ($7,100)

Kevin Roy ($7,100) is an intriguing value play at the Valspar Championship, especially for those looking to balance salary while maintaining upside. His recent form includes a T17 finish at the Mexico Open, where he ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and excelled in GIR percentage and scrambling. These metrics align well with the demands of Copperhead’s challenging layout, which rewards precision and strong ball-striking. With a make-cut probability of 59.1% and a top-5 tournament rank among players in his price range, Roy offers a solid floor for cash lineups while also flashing some upside with his 9.8% optimal lineup projection.

At 8.1% projected ownership, Roy carries moderate rostership that aligns with his value profile. While he won’t fly under the radar, his salary and consistent metrics make him a viable option for both cash games and tournaments. The key appeal here is his ability to generate scoring opportunities through accurate driving and approach play—skills that are crucial on this course. Given his recent performance trends and reasonable ownership, Roy represents one of the stronger sub-$7,500 plays in this field without feeling overly chalky.

Other Value Options

• Max McGreevy ($7,200, MakeCut: 56.5%, Own: 7.6%)
• Jacob Bridgeman ($7,400, MakeCut: 62.0%, Own: 9.6%)
• Stephan Jaeger ($7,900, MakeCut: 61.1%, Own: 10.8%)

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