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In this edition, we head across the pond to Scotland for this Genesis Scottish Open. It’s a DP World Tour event, but it is PGA TOUR sanctioned for the 3rd year and draws a very good field. For many, especially PGA TOUR players, it serves as a warm-up for the Open Championship, and golf in the UK is much different than in the US. You’ll see a lot of long fescue grass, balls bouncing and rolling much more than you see in the States, and typically windy conditions as most courses are on the sea coast. While the forecast at the moment doesn’t call for much wind, that can change quickly in Scotland. This will be a full field of 156 players, with the top 65 and ties making it through to play the weekend. In previous events here, the winning score has varied greatly. Last year, Rory won at -15; in the four years previous, Xander at -7, Min Woo Lee at -18, Aaron Rai at -11, and Bernd Wiesberger at -22 have taken home the title. The wind and course conditions are largely responsible for the wild variance, and with the course playing firm this year with little wind expected, I won’t be surprised if we see the winning score reach the high teens. Because of the firm conditions, the medium-length hitters are more in play than if the course were soft.

THE COURSE:

The Renaissance Club is a Par 70 featuring five par three holes and three par 5s. Three of the par three holes measure just over 200 yards, while the other two are 150-160 yards. The par five holes are all 575-600 yards, and there is one driveable par four hole measuring just under 340 yards. It’s a fairly recently designed Coore/Crenshaw design, therefore not a traditional links course. Historically, the course has played more difficult than most courses on tour. Here are the course stats as compared to the tour average:

Fairways hit: 51%

AVG: 59.6%

Greens in regulation %: 62.3%

AVG: 65.7%

Birdies/round: 3

AVG: 3.67

Bogeys/rd: 3.23

AVG: 3.67

Par 4 scoring: 4.1

AVG: 4.04

Par 5 scoring: 4.7

AVG: 4.64

Considering the large greens, the GIR% being lower than average is a telling statistic. While the wind plays a large role in the difficulty, the firm fairways this week will make it difficult to hit fairways. With less approach shots being struck from the fairway, less greens will be reached in regulation. This should place a bigger emphasis on short game. I’ll still be weighing distance heavily, but there isn’t a particular skill set that’s not in play this week. It sets up as an exciting week with the full field, firm course, and all player types being viable.

STAT CATEGORIES AND OTHER FACTORS:

SG: Approach

SG: OTT

Performance on Par 70 courses

Par 3 scoring

Performance on UK courses

CORE PLAYS $9,000+:

Xander Schauffele $11,500:

With no Scottie in the field, X is the man I’m targeting up top. A winner here in 2022, he’ll have good memories to draw upon if he finds himself in contention. Having played two events this season the week before a major, he finished 2nd at the Wells Fargo and T-8 at the Memorial. Knowing how to get his game to peak for the biggest events, Xander will have his tools sharpened and ready to put into action. His added distance off the tee will make the course an even better fit than in previous years, and the 2024 season has seen Xander take his game to a level only matched by the likes of Scottie Scheffler. The Travelers Championship has been a good comp course, seeing many of the same players translate success on the par 70 TPC River Highlands to the Renaissance Club. Schauffele finished T-13 in that event, his most recent, despite losing strokes on approach and finishing slowly with an even par round of 70. Now on a course with which he’s familiar and confident on, he’ll be looking to raise his game ahead of the season’s final major. He’s the man to beat this week, and a great way to start any cash or tournament lineup.

Tommy Fleetwood $9,900:

Tommy Lad has been playing incredibly solid golf of late, finishing between 13th and 26th in all his previous six events. Now returning to the site of a 6th place finish in 2023 and a 4th place finish in 2022, he seems primed to contend. With his lower ball flight and the course playing firm, his drives will be closer to the length of the longest hitters, setting up plenty of approach shots from short iron to wedge range. The approach play has been a strength, and the putting is gaining strokes consistently. While he’s likely to be popular, it’s worth eating the chalk as you won’t find a safer bet to top 20 outside of the top two. The most encouraging thing about the recent play is that he has not lost strokes in any more than one stat category in the aforementioned six events. In other words, even if one part of his game lets him down, he still has the ability to hold it together and produce a solid finish. He’s got a great history in the UK, and has still yet to win a PGA TOUR event. With a 93.37% chance to make the cut and the third-highest floor in the field based on DFSHero.com projections, he’s a comfy click. This could be his time to break through.

CORE PLAYERS $7,500-$8,900:

Justin Thomas $8,800:

JT seems to set up as a perfect pivot play from the popular players priced near him. Known for being able to “hit all the shots”, I think this type of test is just what JT needs to compete. Sometimes, when the courses you play each week are similar and the more “bomb and gouge” type, it doesn’t allow a player’s imagination and creativity to come out. This type of test should allow Thomas to use that creativity. Being able to curve the ball against the direction of the wind is very helpful, and he’s very good at that. In 2021, he finished 8th here, and the recent 5th place finish at the Travelers Championship has encouraged me about his chances. Taking some time apart (at least for golf swing purposes) from his father, his lifelong coach, should be good for his game. Admittedly, he had gotten too technical and golf swing-oriented. The recent performance tee-to-green was solid across the board, and he should be getting more comfortable with the new putter. JT is ready to contend this week.

Aaron Rai $8,300:

Rai has been incredibly consistent from tee to green, gaining strokes both off the tee and on approach in seven consecutive events. Of late, the putter has been particularly good, gaining over five strokes per event on the greens in his last three on his way to three consecutive top-20 finishes. With the previous victory at this event and his game reaching new heights this season, he’s certain to be a popular click. With that said, it should be worth taking on that high ownership %, as he is underpriced in this field. The game and course fit both line up; the firmness of the course only helps, and he’s used to having two gloves on for the times when it rains. Click with confidence.

Byeong Hun An $7,600:

If you’ve been reading along this season, the name should be familiar. “Benny” An has performed well in big events, with his approach play reaching a level not previously achieved by the South Korean. Combine that with his distance and overall solid driving, and you’ve got a formula to contend. While he hasn’t played an event since the US Open, he’s proven that he plays well after some time off. To start the season, he finished 4th at the Sentry TOC after a long layoff. The time away should keep him under the radar, even despite the 3rd place finish at this event in his first trip last year. If the putter is even decent, An will be a good bet to finish in the top 20. The combination of his skill set and the almost 82% made cut (courtesy of DFSHero.com) likelihood have me confidently clicking his name. He also rates as the 6th best value in the field, the only player in the top-10 best values priced $7,000 or higher.

CORE PLAYERS $6,000-$7,400:

Tom Hoge $7,100:

Hoge is one of my favorite values of the week. His approach play is typically the strength of his game, and with the course playing firm, those approach shots will come from closer to the green. He’s been playing consistent golf all year long, producing TEN top-25 finishes. This feels a bit like Harman last year leading up to his Open Championship victory. Consistent play, a solid finish at the Scottish, puts it all together for the Open Championship W. Not predicting it, but now I have to bet it. Anyhoo, the T-3 finish at the Travelers was largely due to gaining 2.4 strokes per round on approach, which is Scheffler-level elite. He also had his best week of the season off the tee, gaining .84 strokes per round. I feel his price is significantly too low, so I’m taking the discount and running with it. This allows you to play a guy who has a chance to contend while balancing out your lineup if you start with X or Rory up top. Lock it in.

Tom Mckibbon $7,000:

Truly a rising star on the DP World Tour, these next couple of weeks could have Mckibbon as a household name before long. Not the junior superstar Rory McIlroy was, but certainly the next in a line of Irish players to hit the world golf stage. There isn’t much data to compare him to a field like this, but what we saw at the US Open was positive. Gaining almost three strokes for the week off the tee and over 1.5 strokes on approach, he showed why he’s been consistently finishing on the leaderboard in DP World Tour events. Impressively, he’s finished outside of the top-25 only once in 12 DP World Tour starts this calendar year. The distance is there, as is the approach play. If this ends up being a lower scoring event, there’s a solid chance you see him finishing top-10 and being a “sleeper” pick for the Open Championship next week. While he’s a bit older than Tom Kim was in 2022, his ascension feels similar to Kim’s before his stretch of great play on the PGA TOUR that culminated in a phenomenal President’s Cup performance. Coming in fresh off a 2nd place finish at the Irish Open, which was preceded by a 6th at the KLM, the play has been stellar. Mckibbon is likely to be a Ryder Cup mainstay, and I’m jumping on before the masses do.

Ben Griffin $6,600:

B Griff (not his actual nickname) has been playing well, and on different types of courses. His runner-up at the Canadian Open came on a Par 70 with more difficult scoring conditions, while the T-5 last week at the John Deere was on a Par 72 birdie fest. Nice to see that his game translates and that he’s not a “one-trick pony”. The approach play and around the greens have been where he’s consistently outperformed his peers, leading to top-20 finishes in six of his last 13 completed events. Heading across the pond, Griffin returns to a venue at which he finished T-25 last year in his first appearance at the Scottish Open. Griffin is not a long hitter by PGA TOUR standards, so the course being a firm one not suited to bombers will play right into his strengths. Rating out as the 5th best value in the field courtesy of DFSHero.com rankings, Griffin opens up the top of your lineup and makes you feel good going the studs and duds route for lineup construction.

Seamus Power $6,400:

Power seems underpriced here, given that he’s from nearby Ireland and has finished T-17 & T-20 in his last two events, respectively. Taking a look at the strokes gained data, he’s gained in all four key categories in both of those good finishes. The first of the two came at the Travelers Championship, which is a similar par 70 event that has shown some carryover to the Scottish Open in previous years. The approach play was particularly good at the John Deere last week, gaining over 1.4 strokes per round on the field en route to that T-17 finish. Despite not having much history at the course, Power should be able to learn quickly and play even better come the weekend. Being familiar with the cold, rainy conditions that are forecasted is important. Having grown up in Ireland and playing much of his career on the DP World Tour, he should feel right at home. The value is too good to pass on for me.

CORE PLAYERS <$6,000:

Matthew Jordan $5,900:

Jordan hasn’t played his best of late, but it’s mainly been due to a balky putter and some uncharacteristically poor short gameplay. Previous to his recent consecutive missed cuts, ball striking had carried him to three straight top-15 finishes. In 2021, he finished T-18 at the Scottish Open, so I’m banking on his long-term form to return at a comfortable venue. You’re always going to incur more risk when clicking in the low price range. The upside provided is well worth it in this case. He is a great option for a stars & scrubs lineup.