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Last week in Detroit, we watched Cam Davis win for the second time at Detroit Golf Club. His -18 winning score bested Min Woo Lee and Akshay Bhatia, both of whom bogeyed their final hole. Also finishing T-2 were Davis Thompson and Aaron Rai, who failed to birdie the easy par five 17th hole coming home. It smelled like a playoff all the way up to the point that Bhatia missed a 4’ par putt on the 18th, falling out of a tie for the lead. It wasn’t quite the birdie fest that was expected, but it still played easier relative to par than most tournaments do. Check out “At the Turn” for a more in-depth review of the RMC and what we can learn.

The John Deere this week will be another low-scoring affair, with the winning score being at least -19 over the last five events played here and ranking between 34th and 46th most difficult venue on tour over that span. Players will strike almost half of their approach shots in regulation from 150 yards or closer to the green, one of the highest percentages of any course played on tour. It doesn’t favor any particular skill set and often sets up as a putting contest, as many players will have ample opportunities at birdie throughout their rounds. I will be weighing recent form more heavily than in most weeks as any skill set can thrive at this course. Note: Cantlay, Montgomery, and Davis have withdrawn from the event.

THE COURSE:

TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 measuring just under 7,300 yards. It’s an old-school, tree-lined course that will reward accuracy, although longer hitters will have little trouble clubbing down off the tee in order to keep it in the short grass. It features six par four holes between 415-455 and only three over 475. The par 3s are fairly long, with 3/4 measuring over 215 yards, and the three par five holes are all reachable on two shots by most of the field. The greens aren’t particularly difficult, yielding a 3-putts 1.4% less often than PGA TOUR average. Great putters like Steve Stricker and Jordan Spieth have thrived here in past years, each winning the event multiple times. Fairways and greens have also been reached in regulation more often than the PGA TOUR average, leading to the aforementioned birdie fest with a low winning number.

STAT CATEGORIES AND OTHER KEY FACTORS:

SG: Approach

Total Driving

SG: Easy courses

Birdie or Better %

Recent form

CORE PLAYERS $9,000+:

Sungjae Im $10,300:

Riding some great form with four top-10 finishes in his previous six events, Sungjae is playing his best golf of the season. Always accurate from the tee box, his approach play and putting have also gained significantly in 3/4 events. In theory, this is a great fit for the South Korean, especially given the weak strength of field at the top. After the Cantlay WD, he’s the betting favorite at 14-1. This makes him seem like a value as the third highest-priced golfer, and I’m willing to eat the chalk given his projected popularity in DK lineups. Also, ranking out with the highest ceiling score on DFSHero.com, it feels like a comfy click this week.

Davis Thompson $9,600:

Anther week, another impressive performance across the board for Thompson. Gaining strokes in all key stat categories, DT didn’t need to ride a hot putter or an above-average week on approach shots to his T-2 finish at the RMC. As was written last week, it seems only a matter of time before he secures his maiden PGA TOUR victory. Riding a wave of confidence while heading west from Michigan to Illinois, there should be no issue carrying over his hot form to a somewhat similar setup from last week to this. Approach play has gained significant strokes on the field in 5/6 events; off the tee, he’s gained strokes in 6/7 events, and the short game has also been extremely solid. There’s not a single weakness in his game one could point to, and the all-around solid play should put him on the leaderboard for a third consecutive event. Eat the chalk and click him again.

Sam Stevens $9,000:

If you’re going to eat the chalk with one of the above players, you’ll need to find an ownership discount in some other plays. Stevens fits the bill of a great play seemingly flying under the radar. At a projected 8%, which is the lowest in the $9,000+ range, he’s a birdie maker that could vault you to the top of tournament leaderboards. Poston, McCarthy, and Thompson are absorbing a lot of the clicks this week, so it’s a great spot to pivot. Last week saw SS finish T-10, and the week before, he finished 2nd at a Korn Ferry Tour event. These were each similar birdie fests to what we’ll see this week, and Stevens is great from the common approach range, as well as being a great putter (gained 1.5 strokes/round on the greens at RMC). I’m banking on his hot form continuing, and there’s plenty of value in the $7,000 range to balance out your lineups. It’s a bit risky, but there’s merit to playing him as a leverage play in a weak field.

CORE PLAYERS $7,500-$8,900:

Adam Svensson $8,300:

The Canadian is poised for a bounce back after a missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage classic. Previous to that MC, Svensson had gained strokes on the field off the tee, on approach, and around the greens. He also boasts top-25 finishes at this event all three times he’s teed it up here. I’m liking the depressed ownership projection (11% from data golf), and the upside in a field of this strength is there. It’s a perfect buy-low opportunity on a guy who had made 11 consecutive cuts before last week’s aberration. A 69% made-cut likelihood on DFSHero.com is making me that much more confident when clicking his name this week.

Lee Hodges $7,500:

Another likely bounce-back candidate after a missed cut last week is Hodges, who had been riding solid form before the dud in Detroit. Having made five consecutive cuts with four top-31 finishes previous to last week, I’m banking on the form returning. What has me particularly interested is the approach play. He had gained an average of over one stroke per round on approach, which is truly elite-level play. Should that return, especially if combined with his also solid putting stats, Hodges offers significant upside at this price. Another encouraging sign is that he can play well at a birdie fest like the Charles Schwab (T-12). At sub-10 % projected ownership, he’s looking like a great value to me.

Andrew Novak $7,500:

Novak had an uncharacteristic week off the tee in Detroit but was able to ride a hot putter to a T-20 finish. With good long-term form off the tee, I’m expecting that part of his game to normalize at the John Deere. If that expectation comes to fruition, the approach play and a hot putter should make Novak a solid bet to finish inside the top 30 once again. While they weren’t stellar finishes, seeing T-42 and T-30 in the previous two events played here is an encouraging fact. Novak may not seem like a flashy name, but he’s got game.

CORE PLAYERS <$7,500:

Daniel Berger $7,400:

After a T-21 finish at the U.S. Open, D Boog pooped the proverbial bed at the Rocket Mortgage. His approach play in the common range of 120-180 yards looks good this week. He’s been working his way back into form since returning from injury, and the T-13 at the CJ Cup, another shootout, is an encouraging sign. Prior to injury, he had played well enough to play on a Ryder Cup team. The drive seems to be back, and the course should set up well. His approach play has been the strength this season during his best finishes, peaking at the U.S. Open while gaining 1.6 strokes per round on an elite field. While the recent form isn’t there, a couple of top-35 finishes in ’20 and ’21 at the Deere are encouraging, especially given that he putted the greens well (not a strength this season). In a field like this, the thought is to jump on a formerly elite player before he shows he’s all the way back. With a top 5 ceiling projection of the $7,000 range on DFSHero.com, DB should be in for a throwback-type performance.

Ben Silverman $7,100:

Quietly riding great form, Silverman has made four consecutive cuts, with two top-20s over that span. The previous two tournaments have seen him gain almost a stroke per round on the field on average, both on approach and on the greens. Players will need this type of birdie conversion at an event like this, and the trends look good. While there isn’t much course history here to speak of, the form is encouraging enough to jump on the Canadian. I say quietly riding great form because he’s got several similarly priced players and projected much higher owned. I’ll take the 4-5% projection if that ends up being accurate, as Silverman looks to be trending toward another good finish.

David Skinns $6,900:

I’m a sucker for a story of a professional journeyman finally hitting his stride. Skinns fits that bill, not earning his PGA TOUR card until after his 40th birthday. Earning a spot in the final Sunday group at the Cognizant (4th place) and finishing T-17 at the Rocket Mortgage shows he can contend with a variety of different course setups. Skinns has made 3/4 cuts, finishing no worse than 21st in those three events. Now, in a weak field, there’s no reason he’s priced this low, and I’m taking the discount. Skinns also used a combination of solid approach play and good putting last week, but at the RBC Canadian Open, he finished T-21 despite losing over .5 strokes per round on the greens. It’s nice to see a player still perform well, even when the putter lets him down. With easier putting surfaces this week, Skinns should be able to continue riding last week’s formula to another solid showing.

Harry Higgs $6,400:

Higgs doesn’t have a lot of data to back up this suggestion. He has played most of the season on the Korn Ferry Tour, notably winning in back-to-back weeks in May. If you’re familiar with the KFT, many weeks are total shootouts, much like this will be. Since winning those two events, Higgs has most recently posted T-4 and T-26 finishes leading into the week at the John Deere. Surely motivated to perform well, HH has attributed his success to a change in mindset while on the course. The Big Rig says he doesn’t hit a shot without having a positive thought in his mind and being 100% committed to the shot he’s trying to hit. If it’s a poor result, he accepts it, learns what he can, and moves on. That even-keeled, positive approach should suit him well this week, and the need for birdies will be a familiar feeling. He’s already a shoo-in to earn his PGA Card back for next season, so he’ll be free-wheeling it while playing with house money in Illinois. Look for him to exceed this bargain salary.

Let’s have a great week! The final major is two weeks away.