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Hey, Scottie Scheffler won last week. I’ve now typed that six (SIX!) times this season, and it isn’t yet July. A truly incredible feat; he did it this time by beating his hometown friend and birthday buddy Tom Kim on the first sudden-death playoff hole. I am out of superlatives to describe Scheffler’s greatness, so we’ll just move on to Detroit.

There are multiple exciting aspects of this week, with it being in my hometown of Detroit and also being a 156-player field with a 36-hole cut to the top 65 and ties. This is my favorite type of event to handicap, placing a heavy emphasis on getting a lineup with 6/6 through to the weekend. Having also played the course many times, I can speak from experience when describing why this plays as a birdie fest. The fairways hit, green in regulation, scrambling, and birdie percentages are all significantly higher than average.

THE COURSE:

Detroit Golf Club is a par 72 Donald Ross design featuring four par five holes and four par three holes. The greens are smaller than average on tour but not very difficult to hit in regulation, nor are they particularly difficult to putt. There will be more wedge shots hit into greens than we typically see, which is a big part of what will lead to the high volume of birdies made. In the five previous tournaments held here, the winning score has averaged -23, one of the easiest on tour relative to par. The course features only one hole with a water hazard, allowing players to bomb away with the driver, setting up the wedge above approach shots. Driving distance will help, as evidenced by Bryson Dechambeau and Tony Finau winning, although a number of different skill sets can lead to success. Last year, Rickie Fowler broke a long win-less drought as the title sponsor’s poster child. Expect the birdie fest trend to continue, as Detroit has seen significant rains leading up to the event. Players will be throwing darts into the greens with little concern of a firm bounce. Let the fireworks begin.

STAT CATEGORIES AND OTHER KEY STATS:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Total Driving

Birdie or Better Percentage

Success on Donald Ross designs

Scoring on easy par 72 courses

CORE PLAYERS $9,000+:

Min Woo Lee $10,500:

Min Woo has been playing some fantastic golf while flying a little under the radar. Form in golf can be fickle, with only a couple shots over the course of a tournament changing a fringe top 25 to a borderline top 10 finish. Having finished between 21st and 26th in his previous five events, this sets up as a perfect opportunity for the long-hitting Aussie to contend. Over the last five events, Lee has been doing a lot of his damage off the tee and on the greens, gaining an average of 2 strokes on the greens and over five strokes per event off the tee, respectively. His approach play hasn’t been stellar, but with the long drives setting up short wedge shots, the other players shouldn’t have an opportunity to separate themselves with strong iron play. Projected ownership looks to be evenly distributed amongst the top-priced players, and Min Woo offers plenty of upside. In addition, he’s showing the 3rd highest “Boom %” on DFShero.com, making him that much more enticing. With the weaker field and a hot, flat stick, there’s no reason he can’t heat up the griddle and cook in Detroit. He may just wear a chef hat during the trophy presentation on Sunday.

CORE PLAYERS $7,600-$8,900:

Keith Mitchell $8,500:

Cashmere Keith looks to have the skill set to get it done at DGC. Long and accurate off the tee, birdie-making extraordinaire, and primed for a solid week on the greens. When combining the driving prowess and consistent approach play, there seems to be no safer bet to top-10 in the $8,000 price range. Projected to be 4th most clicked of his similarly priced counterparts, the visor sporting southerner was one of the first names that jumped out at me. Sometimes, you must trust intuition when following the trends of a PGA season. Mitchell fits the description of what we’re looking for in the Motor City.

Davis Thompson $8,300:

Thompson has been riding great form for some time now, most recently riding that play to a T-9 finish at the U.S. Open (also at a Donald Ross design). Now playing a completely different type of tournament, his combination of driving and superb putting should have him somewhere near the leaderboard come Sunday. As one of the longer hitters in the field, he’ll find himself with irons for his second shots into at least four of the par-five greens. This should help to create more eagle opportunities than other players, and he showed this prowess with three eagles at Myrtle Beach. Seemingly hitting his stride on tour, this weaker field provides an opportunity to keep the good times rolling. Based on DFShero.com projections, he rates the 6th highest ceiling outcome in the field as compared to being the 14th-priced golfer. This makes him a major value at his price.

Mark Hubbard $7,700:

“Hubs” has been playing the most consistent golf of his career, making every single cut of the 2024 calendar year. While not every course sets up for his game, Detroit Golf Club should. Accurate off the tee and solid on approach, his streaky good putting could very well lead to a solid week in the D. The track record at DGC hasn’t been stellar, but he did finish T-12 in 2020. The leaderboard at this event can be unpredictable, and the crafty veteran could easily be one of those names that makes you say “HUH…” by the weekend. This one is a bit of a guy play, but the leverage it provides over the more popular Svensson and Moore in this price range is what you need to win a tournament.

CORE PLAYERS $6,500-$7,400:

Nicolai Hojgaard $7,300:

A bomber, if there ever was one, the young Dane is poised to make plenty of birdies. Adding up all factors, it’s difficult to understand this price. The driver can be inaccurate, but with the wider fairways and minimal penalty for wayward drives, he should be able to swing away freely off the tee. Word on the grounds is that he’s playing great and has put a new “mini-driver” in the bag that he carries up to 290 off the deck. This can also serve as a backup plan if the driver is a little off. While Hojgaard only made one appearance at DGC, it resulted in a T-21 finish. If the putter gets even reasonably hot, expect the birdies to be flying.

Kevin Yu $7,100:

Yu hasn’t been playing his best lately, but history has shown that players can find their form at this event. What I like about his game is that he’s long off the tee, the approach game has been trending, and he has shown he can compete at a birdie fest such as this. Earlier this season, he finished T-3 at the AmEx, a known birdie fest. A possible concern is his putting, but that can flip easily, and the greens at DGC aren’t particularly difficult. A factor in this recommendation is the low projected ownership, as we’re looking to find our way to the top of DraftKings tournament leaderboards.

Andrew Novak $6,700:

There are some things coming together for Novak this week, and the price seems too good to pass on. Making 9/11 cuts coming into the week, it seems Novak is as solid a bet as you’ll find under $7,000. While the approach play had been lacking before the T-14 in his last event, I’m much more interested in long-term trends with the irons. He’s typically had that part of his game as a strength, and with the driver and putter looking good of late, I’m expecting things to align at a birdie fest type, of course. The 5th highest rated value play on DFShero.com, the advanced data verifies what my early suspicions told me.

CORE PLAYERS <$6,500:

Mac Meissner $6,400:

Sometimes, a value play jumps off the page at you. Despite a couple of consecutive, less-than-stellar finishes, Mac was that guy for me when I was scrolling for value. The Canadian and U.S. Opens were not similar courses to what will be played this week. His previous two events, the Charles Schwab and Myrtle Beach Classic, were much more similar. During those events, which gave up plenty of low scores, MM finished T-5 and T-13. With consistency across the board when looking at his statistics, this venue should allow him to plug away to an easily made cut. Also, the #4 rated value is on DFShero.com!

Troy Merritt $6,300:

There are certain courses that simply “fit a player’s eye.” For Merritt, Detroit Golf Club is one of those courses. With four consecutive top-20 finishes at this event, he’s gained over 1.5 strokes per round over his expected output. He’s got the good memories and reasonably good form, with three made cuts in the last four events, including a T-9 last month at the CJ Cup. I’m not going to go into more data, because there’s simply not much more to add. If the glove fits, you must admit… Or something like that. Just play the guy.

Let’s let it rip in the D! Home game.