FREE 05/08 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Today’s MLB DFS slate is short but features some intriguing pitching matchups and solid run-scoring potential. The Phillies-Tampa Bay game stands out with a 9.0 total and a favorable wind blowing out, but there’s nearly a 40% chance of rain that could cause delays or even a rainout. Similarly, the Reds-Braves game has an 8.0 total and a strong wind blowing out, though it carries an even higher rain risk at 46%, so keep an eye on weather updates before locking lineups.

Later games in Anaheim and the dome in Arizona offer more stable conditions with clear skies and no weather concerns, making those contests easier to project. Both feature totals around 8.5 to 9 runs, with solid pitching options that could limit upside or offer strikeout value depending on your approach. Overall, this slate demands attention to weather while balancing strong pitching matchups against moderate run environments.

Top Stacks

LAD 5-Man ($26,000)

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy

The LAD 5-man stack, featuring Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Smith, and Muncy at a combined $26,000 salary, delivers solid value at 1.85 points per $1000. With an average ownership of 22.5% and an optimal lineup inclusion rate of 20.1%, this stack represents a moderately popular but not oversaturated option in MLB DFS lineups. The game’s 9.0 total suggests a reasonably high-scoring environment, further supported by the domed stadium conditions that eliminate weather-related variables like wind or rain, enhancing hitting predictability.

TB 5-Man ($17,000)

Yandy Diaz, Christopher Morel, Junior Caminero, Danny Jansen, Curtis Mead

The Tampa Bay 5-man stack offers solid value at 2.16 points per $1000 with a total salary of $17,000, fitting well within budget constraints for MLB DFS lineups. Ownership is moderate at 13.7%, closely aligned with an optimal lineup rate of 14.1%, indicating this stack is appropriately priced and not overly popular, which can provide leverage in tournaments. The game total sits at a healthy 9.0 runs, suggesting a favorable offensive environment against the opposing pitching staff. Weather poses some risk with a 39% chance of precipitation and potential delays or rainouts, but temperatures are warm at 85°F and wind blowing out at 6 MPH in Tampa, conditions that generally support run scoring if the game proceeds as scheduled. Overall, this stack presents balanced upside with manageable ownership in a medium-to-high scoring contest under slightly uncertain weather conditions.

ATL 5-Man ($22,200)

Alex Verdugo, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies

The ATL 5-man stack offers a solid value at 1.89 points per $1000 salary, with a combined cost of $22,200 and an average ownership of 16.9%, indicating moderate popularity in lineups. The optimal lineup rate of 13.6% suggests this stack is efficiently leveraged but not overly saturated among top builds. The game total sits at a reasonable 8.0 runs, providing moderate scoring upside, while weather conditions introduce some risk with a 46% chance of rain and potential delays in Atlanta, which could limit innings and scoring opportunities despite favorable 81°F temperatures and a mild 6 MPH wind blowing out.

SP Plays

Top Play: Spencer Schwellenbach ($7,700)

Spencer Schwellenbach draws a favorable matchup at home against Cincinnati, a team that ranks in the bottom third in strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. Despite some recent inconsistency, he’s shown solid strikeout upside with 5.6 K/9 over his last three starts and has pitched deep enough innings to provide a stable floor. The Braves’ ballpark is neutral for run scoring, which should help limit damage if he runs into trouble early.

Schwellenbach’s $7,700 salary offers strong value at 2.39x, and his 51% ownership reflects the confidence in his strikeout potential and innings ceiling. While the high ownership makes him chalk in large-field GPPs, the combination of matchup and price justifies it. He’s appearing in nearly 40% of optimal lineups, indicating DFS algorithms agree with this approach. If you want leverage, consider pivoting to lower-owned arms with similar upside, but Schwellenbach remains a reliable core option tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Jesus Luzardo ($9,000)
• Chris Bassitt ($8,500)

C Plays

Top Play: Will Smith ($4,200)

Will Smith draws a solid matchup against the Diamondbacks, a right-handed pitcher environment where he can leverage his power from the cleanup spot. The Dodgers have an implied team total above average, creating a good scoring context for Smith to deliver RBI opportunities. His price at $4,200 offers strong value given his role and lineup position, especially considering he sees plenty of plate appearances batting fourth.

Smith’s ownership sits slightly above field average at 22%, which aligns with his value profile and recent performance trends. While not a high-ceiling lock every night, his consistent contact and ability to drive in runs make him a reliable GPP option on this slate. The combination of affordable salary, prime lineup spot, and favorable matchup makes him worth consideration as a mid-range catcher play.

Honorable Mentions

• Danny Jansen ($3,000)
• Alejandro Kirk ($3,100)

1B Plays

Top Play: Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)

Shohei Ohtani continues to deliver strong value at $6,500, especially with his spot atop the Dodgers’ lineup guaranteeing plenty of plate appearances. He’s been hitting .385 with 11 extra-base hits over his last 10 games, including four homers, showing clear power and speed upside. Tonight’s matchup against Arizona is favorable as lefties have performed well in this hitter-friendly ballpark, and the Dodgers have a solid implied team total, supporting run-scoring opportunities.

His ownership is high at nearly 35%, which makes sense given his consistent production and multi-category upside. Ohtani’s combination of power, speed, and position flexibility keeps him locked in as a top GPP option despite the chalk. At this salary and with his recent form facing a pitcher who struggles against left-handed hitters, he offers one of the safest floors while maintaining ceiling potential for tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Yandy Diaz ($3,800)
• Bryce Harper ($5,500)

2B Plays

Top Play: Ozzie Albies ($4,600)

Ozzie Albies offers strong value at $4,600 against the Reds, a matchup that suits his balanced skill set. Batting fifth in Atlanta’s lineup, he should see plenty of opportunities to contribute both with power and speed. Albies has five home runs and five stolen bases this season, showing upside in multiple categories. The Reds have struggled to contain left-handed hitters this year, which boosts Albies’ potential for extra-base hits and run production.

While his ownership is elevated at 27.6%, it aligns with his top-tier DFS ranking and solid value (1.84x). The Braves’ implied total suggests a favorable run environment that supports his fantasy floor and ceiling. Given his multi-category contributions and consistent role, the chalk appears justified in tournaments where many will chase upside at affordable prices. Albies fits well as a core piece who can deliver steady points without breaking the bank.

Honorable Mentions

• Hyeseong Kim ($2,500)
• Bryson Stott ($4,800)

3B Plays

Top Play: Yandy Diaz ($3,800)

Yandy Diaz slots into the leadoff spot for the Rays against Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez, giving him a boost in plate appearances and run-scoring opportunities. Diaz has shown solid contact skills recently, with multiple multi-hit games and a .280 average over his last week. While he’s not a big power threat, his ability to get on base at the top of the order is valuable in a game where Tampa Bay has a solid implied team total around 4.5 runs.

At $3,800, Diaz offers strong value with a 2.27x return on salary and appears in 22% of optimal lineups while expected ownership sits near 19%. His moderate ownership seems justified given his lineup role and matchup, making him a reliable mid-tier option for tournaments looking to balance cost with upside. The Phillies’ lefty struggles to miss bats but allows decent contact quality, so Diaz’s approach-oriented profile fits well here.

Honorable Mentions

• Max Muncy ($3,400)
• Austin Riley ($5,000)

SS Plays

Top Play: Mookie Betts ($5,700)

Mookie Betts offers solid upside at $5,700 batting second for the Dodgers in a road game against Arizona. The Diamondbacks’ pitching staff has struggled to contain right-handed hitters this season, allowing a .330 wOBA and a 4.50 ERA overall. Betts’ spot near the top of the lineup should provide plenty of plate appearances in a game environment with an implied total around 4.7 runs, giving him opportunities to contribute across multiple categories.

Despite missing some recent games, Betts is seeing his ownership near field average at about 20%, which seems reasonable given his price and role. His blend of contact and moderate power fits well here, especially since Arizona’s bullpen has been vulnerable late. He doesn’t carry elite ceiling like some premium bats but presents strong value with consistent production potential at this salary point.

Honorable Mentions

• Zach Neto ($4,200)
• Bo Bichette ($4,000)

OF Plays

Top Play: James Outman ($2,200)

James Outman offers strong value at just $2,200 as he continues to see regular playing time with Teoscar Hernandez sidelined. Batting eighth for the Dodgers, he benefits from a potent lineup that should provide plenty of RBI opportunities, especially in a hitter-friendly matchup against Arizona. While his power upside is limited by his spot in the order and lefty bat profile, his recent three-run homer shows he can contribute meaningful fantasy points when given chances.

His moderate ownership around 18% aligns with his solid DFS profile and recent usage. The Diamondbacks’ pitching staff has struggled to contain left-handed hitters this season, making Outman a reasonable leverage option near field average ownership. With an optimal lineup appearance rate near 13%, he fits well as a salary-saving piece who can provide upside without much risk in tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Marcell Ozuna ($4,300)
• Max Kepler ($4,100)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!