FREE 05/12 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 8-game MLB slate features several solid run-scoring opportunities, with four games carrying totals of 8.0 or higher. The Washington-Atlanta matchup stands out with an 8.5 total but comes with a notable risk of rain and potential delays that could affect lineups and game flow. Meanwhile, games like Miami-Chicago and Colorado-Texas also have 8.5 run totals, offering good stacking options in hitter-friendly spots.

Weather should be mostly manageable across the board except for Atlanta, where there’s nearly a 50% chance of rain. Flushing’s wind blowing right to left could slightly favor hitters in the Mets-Pirates game, which sits at a lower total of 7.0 despite decent pitching matchups. The late slate features domed stadium games in Houston, Seattle, and Kansas City, removing weather concerns and allowing you to focus on the pitching and park factors in those contests.

Top Stacks

ATL 5-Man ($21,800)

Alex Verdugo, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II

The ATL stack offers solid value at 1.95 points per $1000 on a $21,800 salary, fitting well within budget constraints for MLB DFS lineups. With an average ownership of 10.8% and an optimal lineup rate of 10.4%, the group presents moderate exposure that balances uniqueness and upside. The game total is set at a modest 8.5 runs, suggesting a potentially limited scoring environment, while weather conditions introduce uncertainty: a 46% chance of rain with possible delays could impact game flow and scoring opportunities. The right-to-left wind at 7 MPH may slightly favor hitters pulling to left field, which benefits this predominantly right-handed ATL stack featuring power hitters like Olson and Riley. Overall, this stack provides efficient scoring potential with manageable ownership amid weather-related risk factors.

TEX 5-Man ($20,300)

Josh Smith, Wyatt Langford, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Marcus Semien

The TEX stack offers solid value at 2.10 points per $1000 with a total salary of $20,300, making it an efficient option for MLB DFS lineups. With an average ownership of 12.9% and an optimal lineup rate of 10.1%, this stack presents a moderately leveraged play that can differentiate your roster without significant exposure risk. The game total sits at a modest 8.5 runs, limiting upside but still providing scoring potential given the presence of key hitters like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in a favorable domed stadium environment, which neutralizes weather variables and typically benefits offensive consistency. Overall, this stack balances cost-effectiveness and moderate popularity within lineups, making it a viable choice in tournaments with controlled risk.

KC 5-Man ($20,600)

Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia

The Kansas City stack offers solid value at 1.97 points per $1000 salary, anchored by a balanced mix of hitters including Jonathan India and Salvador Perez within a total cost of $20,600. With an average ownership of 8.7% and an optimal lineup inclusion rate slightly higher at 9.5%, this stack presents a moderately leveraged play that isn’t overly popular but favored by optimizer models. The game total sits at a modest 8.0 runs, indicating moderate scoring potential, though the indoor dome setting eliminates weather variability, providing consistent hitting conditions. Overall, this stack combines reasonable cost efficiency with controlled ownership in a stable environment, making it a viable option in MLB DFS lineups.

SP Plays

Top Play: Michael King ($9,500)

Michael King has been solid this season with a 2.22 ERA and an impressive 48:14 K:BB ratio over eight starts. He’s shown the ability to go deep into games, including a nine-inning complete game earlier this month, which bodes well for accumulating innings and strikeouts. Tonight he faces the Angels at home, a matchup that looks favorable given LAA’s below-average strikeout rate against right-handers. King’s profile suggests solid floor potential thanks to his command and ability to limit runs in a pitcher-friendly park.

At $9,500 with 2.3x value and appearing in nearly a quarter of optimal lineups, King is clearly drawing significant attention, reflected in his projected 51.6% ownership. The chalk seems justified given his steady production and matchup, especially in tournaments where innings-eating starters with strikeout upside are at a premium. While ownership is high, his combination of control and strikeout ability makes him one of the safer pivots in this slate’s pitching pool.

Honorable Mentions

• David Peterson ($8,200)
• Tyler Mahle ($9,200)

C Plays

Top Play: Yainer Diaz ($3,400)

Yainer Diaz offers strong value at just $3,400 while hitting cleanup for Houston against Kansas City. He’s shown a clear uptick in production recently, posting a .328 average with three homers and 14 RBI over his last 17 games after a slow start to the season. The Astros have a solid implied team total tonight, and Diaz’s right-handed bat should be well-positioned to take advantage of the matchup.

His moderate ownership around 11% aligns closely with his presence in optimal lineups, making him a viable GPP target without being overly chalky. Diaz’s power upside combined with consistent contact in the middle of the order gives him a nice floor and ceiling mix at a low salary, especially in a game environment where Houston is expected to score runs.

Honorable Mentions

• Agustin Ramirez ($4,300)
• Gabriel Moreno ($2,900)

1B Plays

Top Play: Joc Pederson ($2,600)

Joc Pederson offers strong value at just $2,600 with a solid 2.93x return on investment in DFS lineups. He hits cleanup for the Rangers, ensuring consistent plate appearances in a potentially favorable run environment against Colorado’s pitching staff, which tends to allow extra-base hits in Coors Field. Pederson has shown some recent power upside with five extra-base hits over his last 11 games, including a home run off a quality pitcher, and his left-handed bat matches well against the right-handed starters Texas is likely to face.

Ownership sits around 11%, slightly above the field average but reasonable given his price and lineup spot. At this salary, Pederson provides an affordable way to gain exposure to Texas’ offense without sacrificing salary elsewhere. While he won’t carry huge ceiling risk, his combination of volume and occasional power makes him a reliable GPP value or cash game option when looking for leverage on more expensive bats facing tougher matchups.

Honorable Mentions

• Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,200)
• Matt Olson ($4,700)

2B Plays

Top Play: Marcus Semien ($2,900)

Marcus Semien offers strong value at just $2,900 against the Rockies, a team that’s historically vulnerable to right-handed hitters in Coors Field. Batting fifth in the Rangers’ lineup ensures steady plate appearances in what should be a favorable run environment, given Texas’ implied total and Colorado’s pitching struggles at home. Semien has improved significantly since dropping from leadoff to the five-spot, posting a .787 OPS over his last 10 games compared to a weak .401 earlier this season.

His recent hot stretch includes a six-game hit streak with a .400 average and .520 OBP, showing better contact and patience at the plate. The ownership around 15.6% is elevated but justified given his low salary and consistent production. With solid power upside and some speed on the bases, Semien fits well as a tournament target who can deliver multi-category contributions without breaking your budget.

Honorable Mentions

• Maikel Garcia ($4,500)
• Ketel Marte ($5,000)

3B Plays

Top Play: Jonathan India ($3,100)

Jonathan India offers strong value at just $3,100, batting leadoff for the Royals in an away game against Houston. While his recent production has been uneven, he posted a 2.43x value and ranks first in DFS Hero’s GPP rankings, reflecting his combination of contact skills and lineup position. The Astros’ pitching staff has shown vulnerability to right-handed hitters, which plays into India’s profile as a righty with on-base ability. His spot atop the order ensures plenty of plate appearances in a game environment that could see moderate run scoring.

Ownership is slightly above field average at about 13%, which seems reasonable given his ceiling and price point. India’s speed and contact upside make him a useful leverage option against higher-priced bats while still offering solid floor thanks to consistent playing time. Given the matchup and salary relief, he fits well as a core value piece or an upside punt in tournament lineups looking to differentiate from chalkier options.

Honorable Mentions

• Austin Riley ($5,000)
• Matt Chapman ($4,300)

SS Plays

Top Play: Corey Seager ($5,100)

Corey Seager offers strong value at $5,100 against the Rockies, a team that struggles to contain left-handed hitters in Coors Field’s hitter-friendly environment. Batting third for the Rangers ensures plenty of plate appearances in a game with upside for run scoring. His 1.96x value and presence in 15% of optimal lineups highlight his appeal as a balanced option who can provide both power and on-base skills.

That said, Seager’s ownership is elevated at 17.5%, above the field average, largely due to his recent hot streak and favorable matchup. While that chalk looks justified given his upside and price, it’s worth noting some risk with his availability still uncertain after a hamstring issue. If he plays, he fits well as a core piece; if not, pivoting will be necessary since he carries notable leverage in tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Jeremy Pena ($3,900)
• Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,100)

OF Plays

Top Play: Pete Crow-Armstrong ($4,900)

Pete Crow-Armstrong offers strong value at $4,900 as a left-handed leadoff hitter against Miami. The Cubs have a modest implied team total tonight, but Crow-Armstrong’s combination of power and speed stands out in this matchup. He’s slashing .264/.304/.535 with 10 homers and has stolen 13 bases on 16 attempts, showing upside for both extra-base hits and steals. Facing a Marlins pitching staff that has struggled to contain lefties at times, he should see plenty of quality pitches early in the count.

His 16.7% ownership is higher than the field average but justified given his role and recent production. Crow-Armstrong appears in nearly 14% of optimal lineups, reflecting his balanced floor and upside at a low salary. While the Cubs aren’t in a top-tier run environment, his ability to generate multiple scoring categories makes him an attractive GPP target who can differentiate lineups without sacrificing points per dollar.

Honorable Mentions

• Marcell Ozuna ($4,400)
• Alex Verdugo ($3,700)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!