FREE 05/14 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 9-game MLB slate features a few solid pitching matchups and several games with totals around 8 to 9 runs, offering balanced hitting opportunities. The Washington-Atlanta game stands out with a 9.0 total and favorable weather, including a mild wind blowing out of the park. Colorado-Texas and Kansas City-Houston also share 9.0 or higher totals inside domed stadiums, so weather won’t be a factor there.

Be cautious with the Pirates-Mets game in Flushing, where rain delays are likely and winds are blowing in, potentially limiting offense. The White Sox-Cincinnati matchup has decent conditions but a modest total of 8.5 runs with some light wind coming in as well. Other games like Miami-Chicago and Los Angeles-San Diego have stable weather but lower run expectations, which could affect stacking decisions late in the slate.

Top Stacks

LAD 5-Man ($26,200)

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy

The LAD stack offers solid value at 1.83 points per $1000 on a combined salary of $26,200, making it an efficient option given the projected game total of 8.5 runs. With average ownership at a moderate 11.4% and an optimal lineup rate of 9.9%, this stack provides a balanced opportunity to differentiate lineups while maintaining upside. The clear weather with a mild 66°F temperature and a favorable 13 MPH wind blowing out in Los Angeles supports potential offensive production, enhancing the stack’s upside. Featuring high-impact players like Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, alongside consistent producers Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Max Muncy, this stack is well-positioned for scoring in what should be a hitter-friendly environment.

CIN 5-Man ($21,700)

TJ Friedl, Santiago Espinal, Elly De La Cruz, Austin Hays, Tyler Stephenson

The CIN stack offers solid value at 2.03 points per $1000, priced at $21,700 with a moderate average ownership of 11.5% and an optimal lineup rate of 9.3%, indicating it is a viable but not overly crowded option. The game total sits at a reasonable 8.5 runs, suggesting balanced scoring potential without extreme volatility. Weather conditions are favorable, with a comfortable 75°F temperature, minimal 3 MPH wind blowing in, and only an 18% chance of precipitation, reducing environmental risk for offensive production. Overall, this stack presents a cost-effective opportunity with moderate leverage in the player pool given its ownership metrics and stable weather outlook.

NYM 5-Man ($24,100)

Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo

The NYM stack offers solid value at 1.81 pts/$1000 with a total salary of $24,100, featuring high-impact bats like Lindor, Soto, and Alonso. Ownership sits moderately low at 7.0%, closely aligned with the optimal lineup rate of 7.5%, indicating balanced exposure without significant overcrowding. The game total is a modest 8.0 runs, suggesting moderate scoring upside in this matchup. However, weather conditions pose a risk: a 62% chance of rain with potential delays and 13 MPH wind blowing in at Flushing could suppress offensive output and limit innings played. While the stack’s core talent and cost-efficiency are attractive, the weather uncertainty should be factored into lineup decisions given its potential impact on game flow and run environment.

SP Plays

Top Play: Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto remains a strong DFS option despite his recent rough outing in Arizona. Over his last five starts before that, he allowed just one earned run across 30 innings with a 1.80 ERA and nearly a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, showing elite command and strikeout upside. The matchup against the Athletics is favorable, as they rank near the bottom in wOBA and have a modest strikeout rate versus righties, increasing Yamamoto’s floor with potential for strong innings and punchouts.

At $10,500, Yamamoto offers solid value at nearly 2x return on investment and appears in over a quarter of optimal lineups. His ownership around 31.6% reflects his high ceiling and consistency when on form, making him a popular target in tournaments. While the Dodgers’ home park doesn’t heavily suppress runs, the Athletics’ weaker offense helps contain risk. Given his ability to generate strikeouts and limit damage, this chalk looks justified for those seeking a reliable SP option with upside tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Jameson Taillon ($8,500)
• Clay Holmes ($9,000)

C Plays

Top Play: Will Smith ($4,600)

Will Smith offers strong value at $4,600, especially batting fourth in the Dodgers’ lineup against the Athletics. He’s hitting .364 with a .915 OPS over his last 10 games and has shown consistent contact and run production this season with a .330 average, three homers, and 21 RBI in 34 games. The matchup is favorable since the A’s pitching staff ranks poorly against right-handed power hitters, which aligns well with Smith’s profile as a right-handed batter who sees plenty of quality pitches in a solid run-scoring environment.

His ownership is elevated at 11.7%, reflecting his strong recent form and affordable salary. Given his role and consistent output, that chalk appears justified in tournaments where securing upside from catchers can be tricky. With a reasonable price and lineup position ensuring ample plate appearances, Smith offers both floor and upside to anchor lineups without forcing you to spend up at catcher.

Honorable Mentions

• Tyler Stephenson ($4,200)
• Yainer Diaz ($3,400)

1B Plays

Top Play: Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)

Shohei Ohtani remains a strong DFS option at $6,500 against the Athletics, especially batting leadoff for the Dodgers. His left-handed power plays well in a matchup where Oakland’s pitching staff has struggled to contain lefties, and the implied team total suggests plenty of scoring chances. Ohtani’s recent ability to find extra-base hits gives him solid upside, and his role atop the lineup ensures maximum plate appearances in a favorable run environment.

Despite his 20.2% ownership, which is notably higher than the field average, this chalk seems warranted given his 1.89x value and presence in nearly a quarter of optimal lineups. While he hasn’t shown consistent production in every game recently, his combination of power and volume makes him a reliable core play for tournaments tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Miguel Vargas ($2,900)
• Andrew Vaughn ($2,400)

2B Plays

Top Play: Brandon Lowe ($3,300)

Brandon Lowe is an interesting value play at $3,300, especially batting second in the Rays’ lineup against Toronto. He’s a lefty facing a right-handed starter, which typically helps his splits, but his power upside is limited so far this season given a career-low flyball rate and a .200/.250/.323 slash line. The Rays’ implied total isn’t elite tonight, so while he won’t offer huge ceiling, he provides steady contact and run-scoring chances at a very affordable price.

His 12% ownership is on the higher side for a $3.3K bat, reflecting his strong value with 2.4x salary multiplier and presence in nearly 9% of optimal lineups. That chalk looks justified considering his lineup spot guarantees plate appearances and the matchup isn’t prohibitive. Lowe isn’t a standout option but fits well as a low-cost piece to balance out more expensive bats in tournament builds.

Honorable Mentions

• Kyle Farmer ($2,500)
• Marcus Semien ($3,400)

3B Plays

Top Play: Austin Riley ($4,800)

Austin Riley offers strong value at $4,800 with a solid matchup against Washington. Batting second in the Braves’ lineup ensures plenty of plate appearances in a game environment where Atlanta is expected to produce runs. Riley has been consistent recently, hitting .286 with some pop over the last couple of weeks and showing speed upside with his rare stolen base. As a right-handed hitter facing a Nationals pitching staff that has struggled at times, he presents a balanced floor with some upside.

His ownership is elevated at 12.4%, which makes sense given his combination of price, lineup spot, and recent form. This chalk appears justified since he ranks fifth among GPP options and shows up in nearly 15% of optimal lineups. While not the highest ceiling bat on the slate, Riley’s mix of contact, moderate power, and speed upside fits well for tournaments looking to balance risk and reward without breaking the bank.

Honorable Mentions

• Miguel Vargas ($2,900)
• Jonathan India ($3,200)

SS Plays

Top Play: Kyle Farmer ($2,500)

Kyle Farmer offers strong value at just $2,500 while batting second for the Rockies against Texas. Although his season OPS sits at a modest .601, batting near the top of the order boosts his plate appearance potential in a game with an implied team total around 4.5 runs. The Rangers’ pitching staff has been average against right-handed hitters, which gives Farmer some upside as a righty batter in this spot.

His ownership is hovering around 8%, aligning closely with his optimal usage, which suggests the DFS community is aware of his value ceiling despite limited recent production. Farmer doesn’t bring much power or speed upside but provides a safe floor for salary relief in tournaments. Given the matchup and lineup position, he’s worth considering as a low-cost option to balance out lineups without sacrificing run-scoring opportunity.

Honorable Mentions

• Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,900)
• Elly De La Cruz ($5,500)

OF Plays

Top Play: TJ Friedl ($4,200)

TJ Friedl offers strong value at $4,200, especially batting leadoff against the White Sox. As a left-handed hitter, he benefits from a favorable matchup since Chicago’s right-handed pitching has shown some vulnerability to lefties this season. Friedl’s speed and ability to get on base can translate into scoring opportunities in what should be a moderately paced offense for Cincinnati. His presence atop the lineup ensures plenty of plate appearances, which is key at this price point.

His 11.8% ownership is justified given his role and salary, appearing in nearly 11% of optimal lineups as well. While recent wrist soreness is a concern to monitor, there’s no indication it will limit him tonight. At this salary and spot in the order, Friedl provides solid floor with upside for runs and steals if the Reds’ bats come alive against a middle-of-the-pack pitching staff. He makes sense as a core value piece in tournament builds where salary relief is needed.

Honorable Mentions

• Jonathan India ($3,200)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,000)

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