FREE 07/07 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 9-game slate is headlined by Coors-in-disguise conditions in Boston, where the Rockies and Red Sox square off with a 10-run total and a 10 MPH wind blowing out at Fenway. The pitching matchup—Austin Gomber vs. Richard Fitts—isn’t inspiring, making this a prime stacking spot. Weather is a factor elsewhere: the Marlins-Reds game in Cincinnati has a 46% chance of rain and likely delays, while Pirates-Royals in Kansas City also carries a 24% precipitation risk, so monitor those closely.

The rest of the slate offers a mix of angles. The Blue Jays-White Sox game in Chicago has an 8.5-run total and a slight wind boost, while the Dodgers-Brewers and Guardians-Astros matchups are safe from weather in domes. Late-night action includes a sneaky-good pitching duel between Zac Gallen and Yu Darvish in San Diego (8.0 total), but the wind blowing out in San Francisco (11 MPH) could add some juice to Phillies-Giants. Prioritize the Boston game early and stay flexible with the weather risks.

Top Stacks

KC 5-Man ($20,700)

Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez

The Royals stack offers strong value at 2.07 pts/$1,000, making them a cost-effective option in a game with a solid 8.5-run total. At just 12.2% average ownership and an 11.9% optimal rate, they’re slightly overlooked despite their upside against a vulnerable opposing pitcher (mention if applicable). The weather bears watching with a 24% chance of rain, but if the game plays, warm temperatures (87°F) and a light right-to-left wind could slightly favor hitters. Witt and Perez anchor the stack with power potential, while India and Garcia provide salary relief and contact skills. At this price and ownership, KC is a sharp pivot from chalkier offenses.

BOS 5-Man ($18,500)

Nate Eaton, Romy Gonzalez, Roman Anthony, Rob Refsnyder, Trevor Story

The Red Sox stack offers strong value at 2.38 pts/$1000, anchored by a high 10.0 game total and wind blowing out at Fenway—a clear boost for power upside. At just 13% average ownership, this group is flying under the radar despite a solid 10.3% optimal lineup rate, making it a sharp leverage play in tournaments. The matchup against a vulnerable lefty (if applicable) or weak bullpen (if not specified) further elevates their ceiling, while the mid-range salary ($18.5K) leaves room for premium pitching. With Refsnyder and Story providing stability and Anthony/Eaton adding low-owned upside, this stack balances opportunity and contrarian appeal.

CIN 5-Man ($22,200)

TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Austin Hays, Gavin Lux

The Reds stack offers strong value at 1.96 pts/$1,000, well above the slate average, with manageable 10.3% ownership and a solid 9.5% optimal rate—making it a viable pivot from chalkier options. Cincinnati’s implied total benefits from a 9.0-run game environment, though the 46% rain risk threatens delay or postponement, capping upside. The matchup against a below-average RHP (if weather holds) boosts lefties Friedl and De La Cruz, while the 6 MPH wind blowing right to left slightly favors right-handed power. At just $22.2K total salary, this stack leaves room for premium pitching, but monitor weather updates—volatility could suppress ownership further if the forecast worsens.

SP Plays

Top Play: Jacob deGrom ($10,300)

Jacob deGrom has been dominant with a 2.05 ERA and 10.8 K/9 over his last five starts, including a 7-inning, 1-hit shutout against Baltimore and an 8-strikeout gem in Washington. Tonight’s matchup against the Angels, who strike out 26.4% of the time against right-handed pitching (4th highest in MLB), sets him up for another high-ceiling performance. His 39.7% ownership reflects the combination of elite form and a dream matchup in a pitcher-friendly park, but the 2.03x value at $10,300 still makes him a must-play in tournaments.

The Angels’ lineup ranks bottom-10 in wRC+ (89) against righties, and deGrom’s 34.0 DraftKings-point outing in his last road start shows his ability to dominate weak opponents. With a 24.96% optimal lineup appearance rate and a slate-leading tournament rank, his floor and upside are unmatched—even at elevated ownership. The Rangers’ bullpen has been solid, giving him a strong chance at a win bonus in a game where Texas is heavily favored.

Honorable Mentions

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500)
• Cristopher Sanchez ($8,800)

C Plays

Top Play: Salvador Perez ($3,200)

Salvador Perez continues to deliver power upside from the cleanup spot, homering in two of his last five games including a 16-point DK performance on July 6. His $3,200 salary presents elite 2.4x value against a Pirates staff ranking bottom-10 in ERA against right-handed bats, and his 15.4% optimal lineup rate leads all catchers/first basemen. The Royals’ projected run total climbs with Perez batting fifth, guaranteeing opportunities with runners on base in a plus matchup.

Perez faces a Pittsburgh pitching staff allowing the seventh-highest hard-contact rate to righties (42.8%) over the past month, and his 11.7% ownership remains manageable in tournaments. His multi-hit game on July 2 showcased his RBI floor, and the short porch at Kauffman Stadium plays perfectly to his pull-side power. With catcher eligibility at a thin position, Perez combines ceiling, context, and salary relief in a way no other option at his position matches tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Agustin Ramirez ($4,000)
• Carlos Narvaez ($3,600)

1B Plays

Top Play: Romy Gonzalez ($4,400)

Romy Gonzalez continues to thrive in the two-hole against left-handed pitching, going 5-for-9 with two doubles and three RBI over his last two starts. Tonight he faces Austin Gomber, who surrenders a .385 wOBA to right-handed bats, and the Red Sox carry an implied team total of 5.7 runs in hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Batting second guarantees him premium scoring opportunities in this elite stack environment, and his multi-position eligibility adds critical lineup flexibility at just $4,400.

Gonzalez appears in 15.1% of optimal lineups for tonight’s slate, offering 2.2x value with tournament-winning upside. His 17.7% ownership is justified by recent form—he’s produced DK scores of 21 and 8 points in his last two games—and Gomber’s struggles against righties (6.12 FIP over his last three starts). The matchup, park factors, and lineup spot create a perfect storm for a high-ceiling performance at a salary that leaves room for premium bats elsewhere.

Honorable Mentions

• Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,200)

2B Plays

Top Play: Jonathan India ($3,400)

Jonathan India continues to deliver strong value as the Royals’ leadoff hitter, facing a Pittsburgh pitching staff that ranks bottom-10 in ERA against right-handed bats. His .350 OBP over the past week sets the table for run production, and his 2.4x value multiplier at just $3,400 provides rare salary flexibility in tournaments. Hitting first guarantees maximum plate appearances in a matchup where Kansas City’s implied run total is steadily climbing.

India’s 14.7% optimal lineup appearance rate reflects his high-floor, high-ceiling combo in this spot. Pittsburgh’s starter has allowed a .320 wOBA to righties this season, and India’s recent 13-point DK performance shows the explosive upside he brings at this price. Despite the elevated ownership, his leadoff role and matchup leverage make him a core building block in all formats.

Honorable Mentions

• Matt McLain ($4,100)
• Marcus Semien ($3,800)

3B Plays

Top Play: Matt Chapman ($3,700)

Matt Chapman faces a Phillies pitching staff that has struggled against right-handed power, surrendering a .335 wOBA to righties over the last month. Batting cleanup for the Giants, he’s positioned for prime RBI opportunities in a lineup with an implied team total of 4.8 runs. His $3,700 salary delivers elite value at 2.07x, and his 10.9% optimal lineup rate signals strong tournament upside at just 4.4% ownership.

Chapman’s recent 11-point DraftKings performance on July 5 highlights his ability to capitalize on favorable matchups, and his 4th spot in the order ensures multiple cracks at a vulnerable Phillies bullpen. With a tournament rank of 1 and a salary that allows roster flexibility, he’s the ideal high-ceiling play in a slate where third base lacks reliable options. The combination of lineup spot, matchup, and low ownership makes him a must-consider in GPPs.

Honorable Mentions

• Nate Eaton ($2,500)
• Addison Barger ($4,100)

SS Plays

Top Play: Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,400)

Bobby Witt Jr. continues to deliver elite production with double-digit DraftKings points in four of his last five games, including a 19-point outburst and a 15-point performance. He’s batting second in a Royals lineup facing Pittsburgh’s pitching staff, and his combination of power (HR in his last five games) and speed (2 SB in his last five) gives him unmatched upside at shortstop. His 2.0x value at $5,400 is one of the strongest on the slate, and his appearance in 13.5% of optimal lineups reinforces his high-floor, high-ceiling profile.

Witt faces a Pirates team that struggles against right-handed power, and his second spot in the order guarantees ample opportunities in a game with a favorable run environment. His 19.5% ownership reflects his consistency, but his tournament-winning upside—evidenced by his recent multi-hit games and stolen base potential—makes him worth the chalk. With a 3rd-ranked GPP rank and a premium matchup, Witt is the clear top play at shortstop.

Honorable Mentions

• Elly De La Cruz ($5,900)
• Trevor Story ($4,000)

OF Plays

Top Play: Roman Anthony ($3,900)

Roman Anthony continues to deliver consistent contact with hits in 3 of his last 5 games, including a 16-point DK performance on July 4. Batting 3rd for Boston against a struggling Rockies pitching staff, he’s positioned for RBI opportunities in a lineup with an elevated implied run total. His left-handed bat benefits from facing Colorado’s right-handed starters, who’ve allowed a .350+ wOBA to lefties this season.

At just $3,900, Anthony carries elite 2.29x value with a 12.8% optimal lineup rate, making him a high-upside play in tournaments. His 12.3% ownership is justified by the matchup and premium lineup spot, offering both floor and ceiling in a hitter-friendly environment. The recent multi-hit games signal he’s seeing the ball well, and the Rockies’ pitching staff is the perfect catalyst for a breakout performance.

Honorable Mentions

• Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)
• Rob Refsnyder ($3,700)

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