FREE 05/05 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s NBA DFS slate is short with just two games, which means every roster spot counts more than usual. The Knicks at Celtics game tips off at 7:00 PM ET with a solid total of 213.5, suggesting a decent pace and scoring opportunity on both sides. Then later at 9:30 PM ET, the Nuggets visit the Thunder in the highest total of the night at 227.5, which should offer plenty of upside for DFS.

With only two games, focusing on the right matchups and pace will be key. The Denver-OKC game stands out as the best chance to find value given its higher implied scoring environment. On the other hand, the Knicks-Boston game could lean towards a tighter defensive battle but still has enough scoring potential to consider. It’s all about targeting efficient players who can deliver consistent production in these specific contexts.

Game Environment Analysis

NYK @ BOS (O/U: 213.5, Spread: -9.0)

• Pace: NYK (26th) vs BOS (30th)
• Off Eff: NYK (5th) vs BOS (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: NYK (15th) vs BOS (3rd)

DEN @ OKC (O/U: 227.5, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: DEN (12th) vs OKC (6th)
• Off Eff: DEN (4th) vs OKC (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: DEN (22nd) vs OKC (1st)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($9,500)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a dominant stretch in the playoffs, consistently hitting 50+ DK points with heavy usage and volume. His 1.45 FPPM and 5.8x value at $9,500 make him one of the top plays on this slate, especially considering his projected 38 minutes. The matchup against Denver isn’t a cakewalk, but Denver’s defense has shown cracks against high-usage guards this season, and SGA’s ability to fill the stat sheet across points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks gives him multiple ways to pay off his price.

Ownership sits at a moderate 38.7%, which reflects his upside but leaves some leverage if you want to differentiate your lineup. Given that he appears in nearly half of optimal lineups and carries a boom rate near 43%, the chalk seems justified here—he’s clearly one of the safest high-ceiling options on the board. If you’re looking for upside with stability in a tough playoff environment, Gilgeous-Alexander fits that profile well without needing to worry about significant ownership concerns skewing results.

More PG Plays:

• Alex Caruso ($4,000)
• Jamal Murray ($7,500)

SG - Alex Caruso ($4,000)

Alex Caruso stands out as a strong value play at $4,000 against Denver. His recent playoff performances show he can deliver across multiple categories, with consistent contributions in steals and rebounds alongside scoring. Over the last four games, he’s averaged about 25 DraftKings points while playing around 23 minutes per game. The Thunder will rely on his defense to disrupt Denver’s offense, which could lead to extra possessions and counting stats. His 5.7x value and boom rate over 20% make him an efficient way to get exposure to OKC’s secondary contributors without breaking the bank.

While Caruso is expected to be highly owned at over 70%, this chalk seems warranted given his role and recent output in a competitive series. The matchup against Denver offers a reasonable pace and opportunity for him to chip in both offensively and defensively. With his ability to fill stat sheets consistently, Caruso fits well into lineups targeting balanced scoring floors with upside, especially if you need salary relief or want exposure to OKC’s supporting cast alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

More SG Plays:

• Christian Braun ($5,300)
• Jaylen Brown ($7,000)

SF - Jalen Williams ($7,300)

Jalen Williams has been a steady force for OKC throughout the playoffs, averaging over 23 points, five rebounds, and five assists per game while shooting above 54 percent. His recent usage and consistent production make his $7,300 price tag look like strong value, especially with a 5.8x value multiplier and a boom rate north of 34%. The matchup against Denver is intriguing since the Nuggets have shown some defensive vulnerability to versatile forwards who can score and facilitate. Williams’ ability to contribute across multiple categories fits well in this environment, particularly if he sees around 36 minutes again.

Despite his high ownership at 60.5%, the chalk appears justified given his role as OKC’s primary playmaker and scorer now that they’ve advanced past Memphis. He’s featured in nearly half of optimal lineups on DFS Hero, which aligns with his consistent ceiling upside. For tournaments, he offers a safer floor than many other mid-tier forwards while still maintaining significant upside through scoring and peripheral stats. Given the slate context and his production so far in these playoffs, Williams is a reliable core piece rather than just chalk exposure.

More SF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,000)
• Christian Braun ($5,300)

PF - Jayson Tatum ($9,000)

Jayson Tatum is a strong play at $9,000 given his recent form and matchup against the Knicks. He’s coming off multiple 60+ DK point performances in the playoffs, showing efficiency with his shooting and perfect free throw accuracy over the series. The Celtics will rely heavily on him to carry the scoring load, especially as he’s projected for 39 minutes. His 1.3 FPPM and 36.9% boom rate support his high ceiling, and the Knicks have struggled to contain versatile forwards this season.

His ownership is high at 53%, which makes sense given his role and consistent production. While he’s chalky, that ownership is justified by his strong value at 5.6x salary and frequent appearance in optimal lineups (35.6%). Tatum fits well in both cash games and GPPs, though stacking around him with lower-owned teammates could help differentiate lineups. Overall, he’s a reliable core piece with upside in a playoff atmosphere where Boston needs him to perform.

More PF Plays:

• Aaron Gordon ($5,700)
• Chet Holmgren ($6,700)

C - Kristaps Porzingis ($6,300)

Kristaps Porzingis offers solid value at $6,300 against the Knicks, especially considering his 1.15 FPPM and 26.9% boom rate. His recent playoff minutes have been capped around 21-34, with some inconsistency in shooting (35.2% FG overall), but he’s shown upside with a 42 DK point game and multiple outings above 24 points. The Celtics have a favorable matchup here; New York isn’t known for strong interior defense, which should allow Porzingis to find scoring opportunities both inside and from deep if his shot starts falling again.

Porzingis carries moderate ownership at 28.6%, slightly above the field average of 21.9%, which seems justified given his position as a top-ranked DFS option on this slate and strong value (5.56x). He appears in over 40% of optimal lineups, reflecting his appeal as a core piece in GPPs. While he has had some quiet games recently, the potential for positive regression in shooting combined with consistent minutes makes him a reliable play to build around without worrying about excessive chalk or volatility.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($11,000)
• Aaron Gordon ($5,700)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!