FREE 10/30 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 4-game slate kicks off at 7:00 PM ET with Orlando at Charlotte and wraps up by 8:30 PM ET, giving us a tight window but some solid late-swap options. With only four matchups, stacking the right games will be key to separating from the field, especially since implied totals vary enough to target specific environments for upside.

The highest totals stand out here: Orlando at Charlotte at 239.5, where both teams push the pace, and Golden State at Milwaukee at 231.5, which could deliver if the defenses slip. These two games offer the best shot at volume plays, so I’ll be leaning heavy into them for builds while mixing in value from the lower-totals to round out lineups.

Game Environment Analysis

ORL @ CHA (O/U: 239.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: ORL (8th) vs CHA (5th)
• Off Eff: ORL (22nd) vs CHA (6th) 🔥
• Def Eff: ORL (20th) vs CHA (24th)

GSW @ MIL (O/U: 231.5, Spread: 3.5)

• Pace: GSW (21st) vs MIL (11th)
• Off Eff: GSW (9th) vs MIL (8th)
• Def Eff: GSW (11th) vs MIL (13th)

WAS @ OKC (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -15.5)

• Pace: WAS (3rd) vs OKC (26th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (24th) vs OKC (21st)
• Def Eff: WAS (26th) 🎯 vs OKC (2nd)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

MIA @ SAS (O/U: 229.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: MIA (1st) vs SAS (27th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIA (4th) vs SAS (5th)
• Def Eff: MIA (3rd) vs SAS (1st)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander faces a Washington defense that struggles against high-usage point guards, allowing the fifth-most points per game to the position this season. With a 35.24% usage rate and a projected 33.5 minutes, he commands the ball on a Thunder team poised for a high-scoring output against the Wizards’ porous backcourt. His season averages of 34.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 5.4 assists underscore his all-around dominance, positioning him to exploit every possession for multi-category production that exceeds his 54.8-point projection.

Even amid a slight recent dip to 48.2 DraftKings points over his last three games, Shai’s underlying efficiency shines through at 51.6% field goal shooting and a 29.17 PER. The matchup amplifies his ceiling, as Washington ranks outside the top 20 in defensive rating against guards who blend scoring and playmaking. At $10,800, he anchors lineups with a 5.08x value rating and 25.3% boom rate, making him the clear top pick at point guard for tournament builds.

More PG Plays:

• LaMelo Ball ($9,900)
• Stephen Curry ($9,000)

SG - Desmond Bane ($6,700)

Desmond Bane delivers exceptional value at $6,700, boasting a 5.17x rating that outpaces his salary in a slate full of inflated prices. He averages 17.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game while shooting 43.4% from the field, and his 33 projected minutes ensure steady opportunities in Charlotte’s fast-paced environment. The Hornets’ defense concedes the league’s third-most points to shooting guards, setting Bane up for a bounce-back from his recent 25.4-point average over three games.

Bane’s 23.97% usage rate fuels his 19.4% boom potential, especially as he thrives in shootouts where Charlotte ranks bottom-five in three-point defense. His season-long consistency at 28.5 DraftKings points over five games highlights his reliability, and with a tournament rank of 1 and 22.1% optimal lineup rate, he maximizes roster flexibility without sacrificing upside. This makes him the premier selection at shooting guard for balanced DFS strategies.

More SG Plays:

• Anthony Black ($4,300)
• Collin Sexton ($6,100)

SF - Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($5,400)

Jaime Jaquez Jr. erupts off the bench with 28 points on 9-of-14 shooting in his most recent outing, leading Miami in scoring during a blowout win over Charlotte. Averaging 18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists through four games this season, he converts efficiently and adds five assists in each of his last three appearances. Against San Antonio’s rebuilding frontcourt, his versatility as a small forward/power forward shines, with projected 29 minutes allowing him to rack up 29.2 DraftKings points at a stellar 5.40x value.

Jaquez’s recent 17-point performance against New York further cements his hot start, where he grabbed five rebounds and dished five assists in just 27 minutes. The Spurs yield ample opportunities to mobile wings, ranking poorly in rebounding and assists allowed to the position, which plays directly into his all-around game. With a 22.1% boom rate and 24.3% optimal lineup inclusion, he stands as the top pick at small forward/power forward for value-driven tournament success.

More SF Plays:

• Franz Wagner ($7,500)
• Andrew Wiggins ($6,400)

PF - Nikola Jovic ($4,300)

Nikola Jovic has averaged 26.4 DraftKings points over his last three games, maintaining steady production that aligns with his season mark of 23.4 points from 11.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per contest. Shooting an impressive 48.3% from the field and 42.1% from three, he maximizes limited touches with a 16.15% usage rate in 25 projected minutes. Facing San Antonio’s undersized defense, he targets mismatches as a power forward/center hybrid, boosting his 23.3-point projection in a game ripe for interior scoring.

Jovic’s consistency extends to 26.8 points across five games, where his 14.56 PER reflects efficient contributions in rebounds and assists. The Spurs struggle against stretch bigs, allowing the most three-point attempts to power forwards this season, which enhances his floor and 26.7% boom rate. At $4,300 with a 5.43x value and 28.4% optimal rate, he emerges as the elite choice at power forward/center for stacking value in large-field tournaments.

More PF Plays:

• Bam Adebayo ($8,500)
• Paolo Banchero ($8,800)

C - Victor Wembanyama ($11,700)

Victor Wembanyama operates in a matchup against Miami that favors his unique skill set, with the Heat ranking outside the top 15 in points allowed to centers despite their defensive reputation. Trending upward at 64.7 DraftKings points over his last three games, he leverages a 32.39% usage rate for 31.0 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game on 60.3% field goal efficiency. Projected for 34 minutes, he dominates the glass and rim, aligning with his 58.7-point ceiling in this environment.

Wembanyama’s season average of 66.1 DraftKings points and 41.56 PER highlight his generational impact, particularly as Miami concedes rebounds to elite bigs. His 36.4% three-point shooting adds spacing against a Heat team vulnerable to versatile centers, elevating his 21.8% boom rate. At $11,700 with 5.02x value and a tournament rank of 2, he anchors as the top center pick for high-upside builds across all formats.

More C Plays:

• Isaiah Hartenstein ($6,700)
• Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,300)

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