Heat–Hawks carries the slate's highest total at 241.6. The Hawks are 2-point favorites with a 121.8 implied total, the third-highest on the board. Nuggets–Pelicans sits right behind at 241.1, and Wizards–Cavaliers at 239.5 gives the Cavaliers the highest implied total at 124.5 as 9.5-point favorites. Nine games lock at 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28: four tip at 7:00, Magic–Raptors goes at 7:30 and four more go at 8:00. Hornets–Pistons has the lowest total at 214.1, and the Hornets' 103.3 is the lowest team total. The Knicks are 7-point favorites against the Bulls with a 120.0 implied total.
The injury list reshapes three rotations. Anthony Edwards is out for the Timberwolves. Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams are out for the Rockets, and Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis are out for the Warriors. The Rockets enter 4-0 as 8-point favorites against the Bucks. Yaxel Lendeborg (DK $7,000) and Tyrese Haliburton (DK $8,400) are both questionable.
Injury Watch
- Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves, out)
- Alperen Sengun (Rockets, out)
- Jimmy Butler (Warriors, out)
- Paolo Banchero (Magic, out)
- Tyrese Haliburton (DK $8,400) (Pacers, questionable)
- Kawhi Leonard (Raptors, out)
- Yaxel Lendeborg (DK $7,000) (Warriors, questionable)
- Kon Knueppel (Hornets, out)
Point Guard
Amen Thompson (DK $7,000)
Alperen Sengun is out, and Thompson starts for the Rockets against the Bucks with a 33-minute projection. The Rockets are 8-point favorites with a 117.0 implied total. Thompson's 15.7% optimal rate is the top mark at point guard.
His props line sits at 8 rebounds and 17.5 points. He averaged 37.2 DK points over his last three games, and his Hero Projection is 39.3. The field is on him in force.
LaMelo Ball (DK $7,700)
With Anthony Edwards out, Ball gets more minutes against the Warriors: he projects for 32. His props line holds 22.2 points and 3.6 made threes, and his 14.1% optimal rate is the second-best at point guard. He is one of the field's favorite guards.
CJ McCollum (DK $5,300)
The Hawks play the Heat in the slate's highest-total game, and McCollum carries an 11.8% optimal rate. He scored 35.3 DK points against the Rockets on October 26 and averaged 25.5 over his last three games. His props line sits at 2.2 made threes, and he is a crowd favorite at the price.
Shooting Guard
Ayo Dosunmu (DK $5,200)
Dosunmu starts for the Timberwolves against the Warriors with a 30-minute projection. That beats the 23 minutes he played on October 25 and the 26 he played on October 26. His 13.1% optimal rate is the second-best at shooting guard.
The Timberwolves are 4-point favorites, and Dosunmu's props line sits at 16.5 points and 4.5 assists. His Hero Projection is 30.1, and the field leans on him as a salary saver.
Josh Hart (DK $6,300)
The Knicks carry a 120.0 implied total against the Bulls, and Hart projects for 33 minutes with a 10.9% optimal rate. His props line sits at 7.6 rebounds, and he averaged 32.5 DK points over his last three games. Plenty of the field is on him.
Pelle Larsson (DK $4,300)
Larsson averaged 22.9 DK points over his last three games and projects for 31 minutes for the Heat against the Hawks. He is 7.1% owned with an 8.7% optimal rate, a leverage of 1.6 at a price that saves salary for the stars in this game.
Small Forward
Kevin Durant (DK $7,500)
Durant is the Rockets' lead scorer against the Bucks, projected for 35 minutes with a 25.4-point props line. His 14.2% optimal rate is the top mark at small forward.
He scored 46.3 DK points against the Hawks on October 26 and averaged 38.7 over his last three games. His Hero Projection is 41.6, close to Franz Wagner (DK $8,300) at 41.9. The field is all over him.
Peyton Watson (DK $5,000)
Watson plays for the team with the slate's highest implied total, the Cavaliers at 124.5 against the Wizards, and he projects for 32 minutes with a 10.9% optimal rate. He scored 39.5 DK points against the Timberwolves on October 26 and averaged 26.7 over his last three games. He is a popular value play.
Yaxel Lendeborg (DK $7,000)
Lendeborg carries a 26.1% usage rate for the Warriors against the Timberwolves, with Jimmy Butler out, and he pairs a 10.7% optimal rate with the field's top ownership at small forward. He scored 57.5 DK points against the Nuggets on October 26 and averaged 51.5 over his last three games. He is questionable, and his 8:00 PM ET tip comes after lock, so he is a late-swap check for Build & Sim to re-solve.
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK $10,200)
Antetokounmpo runs the Heat's offense in the slate's highest-total game against the Hawks. He carries a 35.5% usage rate over 33 projected minutes. His props line sits at 30.4 points and 10.9 rebounds.
He scored 68.0 DK points against the Mavericks on October 26 and averaged 53.2 over his last three games. His 16.6% optimal rate is the top mark at power forward, on a 56.1 Hero Projection. The field lines up behind him.
Jalen Johnson (DK $9,500)
On the other side of Heat–Hawks, Johnson's props line sits at 22.2 points, 9.6 rebounds and 7 assists. His 13.8% optimal rate is the second-best at power forward. He is another heavy field play in this game.
Karl-Anthony Towns (DK $8,500)
Towns brings a 12.3-rebound props line against the Bulls, and he averaged 47.8 DK points over his last three games. He is 7.0% owned with a 13.2% optimal rate, and his leverage of 6.2 tops power forward. That makes him a leverage play to let Build & Sim size.
Center
Clint Capela (DK $3,100)
Capela's 16-minute projection against the Bucks tops the 11 minutes he played on October 24 and the 4 he played on October 26. His 6.68 value is the top mark at center.
His props line sits at 7.7 points and 7.3 rebounds, and he carries a 13.4% optimal rate. He is the field's most popular center.
Joel Embiid (DK $8,400)
Embiid faces a Pacers frontcourt without Ivica Zubac, and the 76ers carry a 120.8 implied total as 6-point favorites. His props line sits at 22.8 points, and his 11.6% optimal rate is the third-best at center. He is a popular spend.
Rudy Gobert (DK $5,600)
Gobert scored 36.0 DK points against the Cavaliers on October 26, averaged 29.2 over his last three games, and carries a 10.9% optimal rate. His 11.4-rebound props line against the Warriors carries his line, and his 5.76 value is the second-best at center. The field piles in at his price.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around LaMelo Ball (DK $7,700) as its default guard, keyed on Anthony Edwards' absence. It also likes Jalen Johnson (DK $9,500) in Heat–Hawks. It splits on Nikola Jokic (DK $12,000) as the top spend, and it splits on Hornets–Pistons, where the lowest total meets support for Paul Reed (DK $5,900) at center. A minority of the market pivots to Reed, Cade Cunningham (DK $9,900), Jalen Brunson (DK $8,100) and Donovan Mitchell (DK $8,600), and the market watches Tyrese Haliburton (DK $8,400) and his questionable tag. DFS Hero has Ball at a 14.1% optimal rate. On the splits, Jokic carries an 8.6% optimal rate against 6.8% ownership, and Reed carries a leverage of 4.5.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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