Heat–Warriors is the game to build around. It carries a 233.1 total, and the Warriors are 7-point favorites. The Warriors are implied for 120.3 points and the Heat for 112.8. Magic–Suns sits at 221.5, with the Suns favored by 1 and implied for 111.5 against the Magic's 110.0. The two-game slate locks Thursday, November 5 at 9:00 PM ET, when Magic–Suns tips. Heat–Warriors starts an hour later.
The injury report thins three rotations. The Warriors play without Jimmy Butler, Gui Santos, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody, so their wing and frontcourt minutes run through fewer bodies. The Magic are without Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda and Izaiyah Nelson. The Suns are without Mark Williams at center, and Jordan Goodwin (DK $4,600) and Rasheer Fleming (DK $3,000) are questionable for a game that tips at lock. The field piles onto a handful of stars on a slate this small, and Build & Sim simulates every lineup against the contest's real payouts.
Injury Watch
- Paolo Banchero (Magic, out)
- Jimmy Butler (Warriors, out)
- Gui Santos (Warriors, out)
- Jalen Suggs (Magic, out)
- Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors, out)
- Jordan Goodwin (DK $4,600) (Suns, questionable)
- Mark Williams (Suns, out)
- Noah Penda (Magic, out)
Point Guard
Stephen Curry (DK $8,200)
Curry leads a Warriors team missing Jimmy Butler and Gui Santos against the Heat, and his side is implied for 120.3 points. He projects for 33 minutes at a 34.5% usage rate. His points line is 26.5.
He sat out October 31 for rest and returned November 2 with 55.0 DK points against the Suns. His last-three average is 58.7. The field lines up behind him, and his 40.9% optimal rate sits beside the 40.4% for Anthony Black (DK $6,000) at the top of the position.
Anthony Black (DK $6,000)
Jalen Suggs and Paolo Banchero are out, and Black starts in the Magic backcourt against the Suns with 31 projected minutes and a 40.4% optimal rate. He is a crowd favorite, and his 5.36 value is the top mark at point guard. His 32.7 DK average over his last three came before he rested November 2 against the Wizards, and his points line is 14.9.
Brandin Podziemski (DK $6,700)
Podziemski carries a 37.3 DK average over his last three into the Heat game, with 33 projected minutes. He is widely rostered, and his 25.9% optimal rate is third at point guard. His points line sits at 16.
Shooting Guard
Desmond Bane (DK $7,200)
Bane draws 36 projected minutes for the Magic against the Suns at a 23.7% usage rate. His points line is 20.7, with his made threes set at 3.
His lowest DK score over his last five is 30.0, and his last-three average is 34.3. He is heavily played, with the second-best optimal rate at shooting guard at 34.6%.
Jalen Green (DK $6,100)
Green scored 31.5 DK points against the Trail Blazers on November 4 and starts against the Magic with 30 projected minutes. He is chalk at the position, and his 32.4% optimal rate is third at shooting guard. His points line is 16.6.
Klay Thompson (DK $4,400)
Thompson's line sits at 3 made threes against the Warriors, and his 31.6% optimal rate backs the pick. He put up 45.8 DK points against the Clippers on November 4, and his last-three average is 33.7. He is a popular value guard with 26 projected minutes.
Small Forward
Franz Wagner (DK $8,700)
Wagner runs the Magic offense from the forward spot against the Suns. He had 12 assists and 40.0 DK points against the Celtics on November 1, then 37.8 against the Wizards on November 2. His assists line is 6.5.
The minutes back the role: 36 projected at a 29.7% usage rate. He is the field's go-to forward, and his 42.7% optimal rate is the top mark at small forward.
Yaxel Lendeborg (DK $7,900)
Lendeborg starts on the Warriors wing against the Heat with 32 projected minutes, a 26.4% usage rate and a 28.3% optimal rate. His 58.7 ceiling is second at small forward. He is heavily owned, and his points line is 18.6.
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK $11,000)
Antetokounmpo's form sets the pace at the position against the Warriors, and he carries a 28.3% optimal rate. His lowest DK score over his last five is 55.5, and his last-three average is 66.0. He projects for 33 minutes at a 33.6% usage rate.
His points line is 27.9, with rebounds at 10.5. He is a consensus spend for a Heat team implied for 112.8, and his 78.3 ceiling is the top mark at power forward.
Miles Bridges (DK $7,100)
Bridges starts for the Suns in a near pick'em against the Magic, with 33 projected minutes. He put up 40.3 DK points against the Trail Blazers on November 4, and his last-three average is 44.8. He is a popular frontcourt piece with a 26.0% optimal rate.
Center
Bam Adebayo (DK $7,800)
Adebayo is the top value at center at 5.17 for the Heat against the Warriors. He projects for 33 minutes at a 22.4% usage rate. His points line is 20.2.
He scored 57.0 DK points against the Clippers on November 4, and his last-three average is 48.3. The field flocks to him, and his 38.4% optimal rate tops the position.
What The Market Is Saying
The market builds around Heat–Warriors and treats Stephen Curry (DK $8,200) as the default stud. It expects the chalk to sit on Curry, Franz Wagner (DK $8,700), Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK $11,000) and Bam Adebayo (DK $7,800), with Anthony Black (DK $6,000) and Oso Ighodaro (DK $4,500) as its value core. It splits on Adebayo, on Ighodaro against Khaman Maluach (DK $4,800) at center for the Suns, and on Devin Booker (DK $8,500), and it watches the news on Antetokounmpo's wrist. DFS Hero has Adebayo at a 38.4% optimal rate, and DFS Hero has Antetokounmpo at a 28.3% optimal rate. The DFS Hero numbers back the value core: Ighodaro carries a 21.9% optimal rate against 19.8% ownership, a leverage of 2.1, which makes him a piece for Build & Sim to size.
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The content in our articles is based on data available at the time of publishing. Always double-check your lineups before locking in your players.
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