FREE 11/09 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Week 10 is here, bringing a loaded 10-game slate packed with intrigue. Several matchups jump off the page for stacking potential — headlined by Buffalo at Miami (50.0 total), followed closely by Baltimore at Minnesota and Detroit at Washington (both at 49.0), with LA at San Francisco just behind. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in those high-total games, while lower totals like New Orleans at Carolina (38.5) and Jacksonville at Houston (37.5) suggest fewer fantasy-friendly opportunities.

Weather adds some wrinkles for the outdoor games, so keep an eye on that. Cleveland at the Jets faces 79% rain chance with 13 mph winds, and Detroit at Washington has 54% precipitation, which could suppress passing and boost defenses. The domes in Houston and Minnesota keep things predictable indoors, and most other spots look clean with minimal wind or rain risks.

Top Stacks

BAL vs MIN ($20,600)

Players: Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Justin Jefferson

The BAL-MIN stack with Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, and Justin Jefferson as the bring-back projects 60.3 points with 13.8% ownership, 15.4% optimal rate, and 18.7% boom rate, offering 2.93 pts/$1K value. Jackson’s return from hamstring injury featured four TD passes in an efficient 18/23 performance for 204 yards against Miami, directly boosting Flowers who led Baltimore with five receptions for 64 yards while maintaining at least five catches in five straight games, enhancing teammate correlation in a high-scoring potential matchup. Jefferson provides MIN bring-back upside in a favorable game script where trailing could increase targets, as seen in his six catches for 47 yards and a TD with McCarthy against Detroit—his first score since Week 1—following 74 yards on 11 targets in a loss to the Chargers, capitalizing on volume if the Vikings play catch-up at home.

MIN vs BAL ($18,700)

Players: J.J. McCarthy, Justin Jefferson, Zay Flowers

The MIN-BAL stack projects 56.2 points with 13.3% ownership, 15.1% optimal rate, and 19.3% boom rate, offering 3.01 pts/$1K value. McCarthy and Jefferson demonstrated strong correlation in McCarthy’s return, connecting on a 10-yard TD pass for Jefferson’s first score since Week 1, while McCarthy added a rushing TD and showed chemistry with Jefferson (6 catches, 47 yards) en route to three total TDs in the upset win. As the BAL bring-back, Flowers provides upside in a potential shootout script, leading Baltimore’s passing attack with 5/5 for 64 yards in the last game and 7/9 for 63 yards prior, averaging 12.5 targets over his last five contests to exploit Minnesota’s secondary if the Ravens trail.

QB Plays

Josh Allen ($7,000)

Josh Allen enters Week 10 with three touchdown performances in back-to-back games, completing 23 of 26 passes for 273 yards and adding 19 rushing yards with two scores in his latest win over Kansas City. He averages 27.5 DK points per game over his last two outings, surpassing his season-long 24.1 average, while his rushing touchdowns reach seven in eight appearances to offset a run-heavy Bills offense projecting -3.5% pass rate over expectation.

The matchup against Miami’s defense favors Allen’s dual-threat style, especially with the game’s total at 50.0 and Buffalo as 9.5-point favorites in favorable 85-degree weather with minimal wind. At $7,000, he delivers 3.46x value and a 19.0% boom rate, projecting 24.2 points that position him as the top QB option despite 14.8% ownership.

Honorable Mentions

• Lamar Jackson ($6,800)
• J.J. McCarthy ($4,900)

RB Plays

Christian McCaffrey ($9,000)

McCaffrey racks up 173 total yards and two touchdowns in his most recent game, rushing 28 times for 106 yards and catching five passes for 67 more against the Giants. He maintains a workhorse role with 25.4 touches per game and multi-touchdown outputs in two of his last three contests, even after a modest 68-yard dip, while consistently hitting 107+ scrimmage yards in seven of eight starts this season.

Facing the Rams in a 49.5-point total game where San Francisco holds a 4.5-point edge, McCaffrey thrives in a ground attack boosted by the opponent’s vulnerabilities and ideal 80-degree dome-like conditions. His $9,000 salary yields 2.78x value with a 27.0% boom rate and 25.0 projected points, making him the premier RB choice at 23.9% ownership.

Honorable Mentions

• De’Von Achane ($7,400)
• Rico Dowdle ($6,300)

WR Plays

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,600)

Smith-Njigba posts 140 total yards on eight catches for 129 receiving and one rush for 11 in Sunday’s rout of Washington, extending his streak of 100+ receiving yards to four straight games. He compiles a 58-948-4 receiving line over eight starts, cracking triple digits six times, and draws nine targets in his latest outing to affirm his role as Seattle’s top receiver in a run-heavy scheme at -4.6% pass rate over expectation.

The Cardinals’ bottom-third pass defense sets up Smith-Njigba for continued dominance in a 45.5-point total matchup with Seattle favored by 6.5 points under mild 60-degree conditions. Priced at $8,600 for 2.80x value, 26.0% boom potential, and 24.1 projected points, he leads WRs at 19.9% ownership with a Hero Rank of 1.

Honorable Mentions

• Puka Nacua ($8,700)
• Zay Flowers ($5,900)

TE Plays

Trey McBride ($6,000)

McBride scores in four of his last five games, including five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown on Monday against Dallas, while joining elite company with five-plus receptions in 10 consecutive outings. He explodes for 10 catches, 74 yards, and two scores versus Green Bay two weeks prior, addressing past red-zone issues to become Arizona’s pass-heavy focal point at +3.5% pass rate over expectation.

Traveling to Seattle’s run-oriented defense in a 45.5-point game where the Cardinals chase as 6.5-point underdogs, McBride targets volume in cooler 60-degree weather with light winds. His $6,000 tag provides 2.83x value, 18.0% boom rate, and 17.0 projected points, crowning him the top TE amid 16.4% ownership.

Honorable Mentions

• George Kittle ($4,500)
• Sam LaPorta ($4,400)

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