FREE 11/27 NFL Cheat Sheet: Thanksgiving Day DFS Plays

Thanksgiving Day NFL at it’s finest! We’ve got a 3-game slate on tap that offers some solid stacking opportunities across the board. The KC-DAL matchup leads with a 52.5 total and a close -3 spread for Dallas, making it a prime spot for game stacks. CIN-BAL follows at 51.5, where Baltimore’s -7 edge could push the pace, especially with clear skies and light 9 mph winds at 36 degrees outdoors.

The GB-DET game rounds things out at 48.0, with Detroit favored by 3 in another dome environment that should keep scoring steady. These totals point to value in high-upside offenses, so focus on correlating players from the favorites while mixing in underdogs for leverage in smaller fields.

Top Stacks

BAL vs CIN ($18,400)

Players: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Ja’Marr Chase

The BAL-CIN stack with Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Ja’Marr Chase as the bring-back projects 57.3 points with 31.9% ownership, 31.4% optimal rate, and 20.3% boom rate, offering 3.12 pts/$1K value. Jackson and Andrews show strong correlation as Baltimore’s primary QB-TE duo, with Andrews scoring in four of his last seven games (six total TDs in 2025) despite a quiet 1-9 outing last week, and Jackson now fully healthy (no injury designation, full practice) poised to exploit Cincinnati’s league-worst TE defense after getting WR Rashod Bateman back. Chase’s bring-back upside surges with Joe Burrow’s return from injury, fresh off a one-game suspension, in a potential catch-up script where the Bengals trail and air it out, as Chase’s 2025 targets remain elite even after missing Week 12.

KC vs DAL ($20,900)

Players: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, CeeDee Lamb

The KC-DAL stack with Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, and CeeDee Lamb as the bring-back projects 64.2 points with 36.6% ownership, 29.9% optimal rate, and 21.0% boom rate, offering 3.07 pts/$1K value. Mahomes and Rice show strong correlation potential after Rice’s season-high 141 yards on 12 targets in Week 12, where Mahomes posted a season-best 352 passing yards despite zero TDs; with Rice fully practicing through a minor hamstring issue and KC’s full skill-position group healthy, their connection could rebound from Mahomes’ recent 1:3 TD:INT ratio over three games. As a DAL bring-back, Lamb offers upside in high-volume game scripts, evidenced by his 11 targets for 75 yards against the Eagles and seven targets with a TD in Week 11 versus the Raiders, positioning him to capitalize if Dallas trails and leans on his consistent 66+ yard output in five straight games since returning from injury.

QB Plays

Patrick Mahomes ($6,500)

Patrick Mahomes elevates the Chiefs’ offense in a high-scoring dome matchup against Dallas, where the game’s 52.5 total points signal ample passing opportunities. He posts 352 yards in his latest outing despite zero touchdowns, leading a comeback win that showcases his ability to orchestrate late-game drives, and his rushing adds consistent floor with 30 yards on four carries. Trending upward at 17.7 DK points per game over the last two contests, Mahomes exploits a Cowboys defense vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, projecting for 23.9 points at 3.67x value that crushes his $6,500 salary.

The pass-heavy Chiefs attack ranks with a +5.8% PROE, amplifying Mahomes’ ceiling in this neutral-site thriller where he averages elite volume against premium secondaries. His prop lines—267.5 passing yards and 22.5 rushing—align with recent efficiency gains, including a season-high yardage total that positions him for multi-touchdown upside. Moderate 35% ownership keeps him accessible while his 18% boom rate delivers tournament-winning explosions.

Honorable Mentions

• Lamar Jackson ($6,800)
• Dak Prescott ($6,300)

RB Plays

Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,800)

Jahmyr Gibbs explodes for 264 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in Detroit’s overtime victory, cementing his role as the Lions’ dynamic lead back against Green Bay. He rushes 15 times for 219 yards, including a 69-yard overtime dagger, while hauling in career-high 11 receptions for 45 yards and another score, pushing his season totals to 951 rushing yards at 6.1 YPC and 10 touchdowns. Averaging 40.5 DK points across his last two games, Gibbs thrives in a dome environment that favors the Lions’ -3 spread and 48-point total.

Gibbs commands elite target share with 12 looks in his most recent outing, blending rushing volume and receiving prowess in an offense that leans on his versatility for big plays. His props—70.5 rushing yards, 37.5 receiving, and 4.5 catches—reflect the Packers’ middling run defense, setting up 22.9 projected points at 2.60x value from his $8,800 tag. High 47.2% ownership reflects his 23% boom potential, making him a locked-in RB1 for Thanksgiving slates.

Honorable Mentions

• Derrick Henry ($7,300)
• Javonte Williams ($6,300)

WR Plays

Ja’Marr Chase ($8,000)

Ja’Marr Chase returns from suspension to dominate as Cincinnati’s alpha receiver in a heated rivalry against Baltimore, reuniting with Joe Burrow for a 51.5-point showdown. He racks up double-digit targets weekly when active, operating in a pass-heavy offense with +2.6% PROE that targets his speed against a run-focused Ravens unit holding a -4.3% opponent PROE. Despite a recent dip from the missed game, Chase’s 29% boom rate and 23.4-point projection underscore his immediate impact at $8,000.

The Bengals’ urgency in this -7 spread road tilt amplifies Chase’s volume, especially with props at 92.5 receiving yards and 7.5 catches that match his elite separation skills. Baltimore’s secondary struggles in cold-weather passing sets at 36°F with 9 mph winds, creating mismatches for Chase’s 43.2% ownership surge. His 2.92x value delivers WR1 consistency, positioning him for 100-yard, multi-touchdown outings that elevate lineups.

Honorable Mentions

• Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800)
• CeeDee Lamb ($6,900)

TE Plays

Mark Andrews ($3,600)

Mark Andrews provides TE value at $3,600 by stretching the field in Baltimore’s run-heavy scheme versus Cincinnati’s league-worst defense against tight ends. He scores on a 35-yard rush in his prior game and extends plays with three receptions for 32 yards, maintaining six touchdowns this season despite a quiet 9-yard line recently. The matchup favors Andrews’ red-zone role, projecting 11.1 points with 3.09x return and 16% boom rate in a 51.5-total game.

Andrews faces a Bengals pass defense that yields massive production to the position, aligning with his 3.5-reception and 38.5-yard props amid Lamar Jackson’s targeted throws. At 30.3% ownership near field average, he exploits the cold 36°F conditions with light 9 mph winds, where his blocking and route-running create easy scores. This setup boosts his floor in a -7 home spread, making him the top TE steal for balanced builds.

Honorable Mentions

• Travis Kelce ($5,000)
• Mike Gesicki ($3,100)

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