FREE 02/06 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 9-game NHL slate offers a variety of DFS angles to explore, with a mix of low-scoring grinds and higher-total matchups to target. The Avalanche-Flames (O/U: 6.0) and Maple Leafs-Kraken (O/U: 6.0) games stand out as the top spots for offense, with both matchups featuring teams that can generate plenty of scoring chances. On the other hand, games like Senators-Lightning and Hurricanes-Wild, both sitting at 5.5 totals, could lean more defensive depending on how the goalies perform.

Speaking of goaltending, there are some intriguing situations to monitor. Andrei Vasilevskiy gets the nod for Tampa Bay at home against Ottawa, making it a tougher matchup for the Senators’ skaters despite their offensive upside. Meanwhile, Dustin Wolf draws the start for Calgary in what could be a fast-paced game against Colorado’s high-powered attack. With several strong netminders in play and some softer spots like Vancouver visiting San Jose, tonight’s slate should come down to finding the right balance between chalk plays and sneaky value options.

Top Stacks

COL PP1 ($24,100)

Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Martin Necas

The COL PP1 stack of Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Martin Necas offers a strong combination of projected production and value, with 44.2 projected points at a salary of $24,100, equating to a solid 1.83 pts/$1000. Ownership is moderate at 9.8%, aligning closely with its optimal lineup rate of 10.0%, indicating the stack is appropriately leveraged in DFS contests. This balance between ownership and optimal rate suggests it provides a competitive ceiling without being overly popular, making it an efficient choice for lineups targeting upside while maintaining differentiation in tournaments.

FLA PP1 ($20,900)

Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov

The FLA PP1 stack of Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, and Aleksander Barkov is projected for 34.9 points at a combined salary of $20,900, resulting in a value of 1.67 pts/$1000. This is a solid value for a high-priced power-play unit, providing strong upside relative to its cost. With an average ownership of 7.1%, the stack offers moderate leverage in tournaments when compared to its optimal lineup rate of 9.9%, indicating it has a slightly higher chance of appearing in winning lineups than its ownership suggests. As a power-play unit, this stack benefits from concentrated scoring potential, making it an efficient option for DFS contests with competitive ownership dynamics.

NJD PP1 ($19,800)

Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton

The NJD PP1 stack, featuring Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Dougie Hamilton, offers strong projected production with 36.2 points at a total salary of $19,800, yielding a solid value of 1.83 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of 6.9%, this stack provides moderate leverage in tournaments given its optimal lineup rate of 8.6%, which exceeds its ownership rate by 1.7 percentage points. This positive leverage indicates the stack is slightly underutilized relative to its likelihood of appearing in optimal lineups, making it a viable option for DFS players seeking upside with reasonable differentiation from the field.

C Plays

Top Play: Nathan MacKinnon ($9,000)

Nathan MacKinnon ($9,000) headlines tonight’s slate as the top-ranked tournament play, and for good reason. His 18.1 DK point projection is the highest on the board, and his elite role as Colorado’s offensive centerpiece ensures both a strong floor and ceiling. MacKinnon has been incredibly consistent, logging points in nine of his last ten games while continuing to fire shots at an elite clip. The matchup against Calgary is solid, as their penalty kill ranks middle of the pack, and MacKinnon remains a power-play force with 24 points on the man advantage this season. While $9,000 is a steep price tag, his value metric (2.01x) indicates he can still deliver relative to salary if he hits his projection.

At 15.1% projected ownership, MacKinnon will be popular but not overwhelmingly so in tournaments, making him viable chalk given his upside and reliability. He appears in nearly 18% of optimal lineups, which supports the idea that fading him entirely could be risky despite the high ownership. If you’re looking to differentiate your builds, pairing him with lower-owned Avalanche teammates like Martin Necas or Artturi Lehkonen could provide leverage while still capturing exposure to Colorado’s top line in a favorable spot. Overall, MacKinnon checks all the boxes for both cash games and tournaments—his combination of consistency, ceiling potential, and matchup makes him worth paying up for tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Auston Matthews ($9,200)
• Jack Hughes ($8,100)
• Aleksander Barkov ($6,500)

W Plays

Top Play: Dylan Guenther ($6,200)

Dylan Guenther ($6,200) offers an intriguing combination of upside and floor in tonight’s matchup against Columbus. Coming off a three-point performance in his return from injury, Guenther is clearly in form and primed to take advantage of a favorable game environment. The Blue Jackets rank near the bottom of the league in goals allowed per game and penalty kill efficiency, which aligns well with Guenther’s role as a volume shooter (104 shots in 41 games) and power play contributor. His projection of 11.3 DK points and strong 1.82x value make him worth considering, even at a mid-range salary.

At 7% projected ownership, Guenther is slightly chalky relative to the field average, but it’s not prohibitive given his upside. Appearing in over 12% of optimal lineups speaks to his potential as both a safe cash option and a viable tournament play. While he may not provide significant leverage, his ability to deliver multi-point games makes the ownership justifiable, especially in this matchup. If you’re looking for exposure to a high-upside winger without breaking the bank, Guenther fits nicely into balanced builds.

Honorable Mentions

• Nikita Kucherov ($8,700)
• Jesper Bratt ($5,800)
• Matthew Tkachuk ($7,500)

D Plays

Top Play: Zach Werenski ($7,500)

Zach Werenski’s $7,500 salary makes him a premium defensive option, but his production this season backs it up. With 57 points in 53 games, including 19 on the power play, Werenski offers elite offensive upside from the blue line. His matchup against Utah is favorable, as their penalty kill ranks in the bottom half of the league, which aligns well with Werenski’s heavy power-play involvement. He’s projected for 15.4 DraftKings points with a strong value of 2.1x and appears in nearly 9% of optimal lineups—an indicator that he has both floor and ceiling appeal.

The one concern here is Werenski’s ownership at 13.4%, which is notably higher than the field average for defensemen. While that makes him a bit chalky, it also reflects his strong profile in this slate. For tournaments, you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere if rostering him, but his combination of shot volume (200 shots this season), blocked shots (92), and offensive production makes him a justifiable chalk play in this spot. If he’s confirmed healthy closer to lock time, he remains one of the top high-salary defensemen to consider.

Honorable Mentions

• Cale Makar ($7,900)
• Victor Hedman ($5,800)
• Shea Theodore ($5,500)

G Plays

Top Play: MacKenzie Blackwood ($8,300)

MacKenzie Blackwood ($8,300) stands out as a strong option in net tonight against the Calgary Flames. The Flames have struggled offensively all season, averaging just 2.66 goals per game (fifth-worst in the NHL), which sets up nicely for Blackwood, who has been in excellent form. Over his last five starts, he’s posted a 2.03 GAA and .927 save percentage, including two shutouts. With a projection of 13.83 DK points and appearing in 13.4% of optimal lineups, he offers both safety and upside at this price point. While his $8,300 salary is on the higher side, his recent consistency makes him a reliable anchor for cash games or tournaments.

The projected ownership of 8.1% is worth noting, as it’s relatively high compared to the field average for goalies (2.6%). However, it’s justified given his matchup and recent performance. Calgary’s lackluster offense combined with Blackwood’s current form creates a favorable game environment where he could rack up saves while limiting goals against—a key recipe for DFS success at goalie. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in GPPs or want stability in cash lineups, Blackwood is a solid play tonight despite the elevated ownership.

Honorable Mentions

• Charlie Lindgren ($7,800)
• Joel Hofer ($7,200)
• Connor Ingram ($7,900)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!