FREE 03/08 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 6-game NHL slate offers a solid mix of high-scoring potential and intriguing goalie matchups, making it an exciting night for DFS decisions. The TOR @ COL game leads the way with a 6.5 total, and with Anthony Stolarz and Mackenzie Blackwood confirmed in net, there’s plenty of appeal for offensive stacks on both sides. Similarly, the DAL @ EDM matchup also features a 6.5 total, with Jake Oettinger squaring off against Stuart Skinner in what could be another fast-paced contest worth targeting.

For those looking to pivot away from the chalkier spots, keep an eye on CHI @ NSH, where Arvid Soderblom and Justus Annunen are confirmed starters in another game with a 6.5 total. Meanwhile, the STL @ LAK matchup has the lowest total on the slate at 5.5, which could make it appealing for value plays or goalie options like Darcy Kuemper. With several ways to approach tonight’s games, balancing exposure to high-total matchups while finding sneaky value will be key to building strong lineups.

Top Stacks

COL PP1 ($23,400)

Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Martin Necas

The COL PP1 stack of Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Martin Necas offers a strong ceiling with a projected 43.9 points at a total salary of $23,400, resulting in a solid value of 1.88 pts/$1000. While the average ownership is relatively high at 15.9%, the stack’s optimal lineup rate of 17.0% slightly exceeds its ownership, indicating it is appropriately leveraged in DFS contests. This combination of high projection and positive leverage makes it a viable option for both cash games and tournaments, particularly given its potential to anchor lineups with elite upside from power-play production.

EDM PP1 ($22,500)

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard

The EDM PP1 stack of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard is projected for 43.3 points at a total salary of $22,500, yielding a strong value of 1.92 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of 11.5%, this stack offers moderate leverage given its optimal lineup rate of 15.7%, indicating it is more likely to appear in top lineups than its ownership suggests. The power-play correlation among these three players enhances their upside potential in DFS tournaments, making this stack an appealing option for those seeking high-projected output with reasonable ownership relative to its optimal rate.

SJS PP1 ($16,500)

Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli, William Eklund

The SJS PP1 stack of Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli, and William Eklund offers a projected total of 33.0 points at a combined salary of $16,500, resulting in a solid value of 2.00 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of 12.4%, this stack is moderately popular in DFS contests but slightly underperforming in terms of its optimal lineup rate at 9.9%, suggesting it may be overutilized relative to its chances of being the best stack on a slate. While the power-play correlation enhances scoring upside, the gap between ownership and optimal rate indicates a need for caution when deploying this stack in lineups, particularly in larger-field tournaments where leverage is critical.

C Plays

Top Play: Nathan MacKinnon ($9,200)

Nathan MacKinnon ($9,200) is in a strong spot tonight against the Maple Leafs, though his high ownership (20.8%) relative to the field average deserves some consideration. His 22.7% optimal lineup rate indicates he’s one of the top plays on the slate, and his projection of 18.2 DK points reflects both his elite scoring upside and consistent floor. With five multi-point efforts in his last eight games and heavy involvement on Colorado’s top power play unit, MacKinnon is hard to fade despite the chalky ownership. Toronto’s defense has been solid overall but has shown vulnerability against high-paced offenses like Colorado’s, making this a game environment worth targeting.

At $9,200, you’re paying a premium, but MacKinnon’s shot volume (257 shots through 63 games) and recent production justify the price tag in tournaments or cash games. While his popularity may limit leverage opportunities in GPPs, it’s not necessarily bad chalk given his ceiling and consistency. If you’re looking to differentiate your lineup elsewhere, MacKinnon remains a foundational piece worth building around in this high-profile matchup.

Honorable Mentions

• Connor McDavid ($8,500)
• Leon Draisaitl ($7,700)
• Macklin Celebrini ($6,300)

W Plays

Top Play: Jakub Vrana ($2,500)

Jakub Vrana ($2,500) stands out as an elite value option in tournaments tonight. Projected for 6.56 DraftKings points and ranking first in Hero GPP score, he offers a strong 2.62x value at the minimum salary. The matchup against Chicago is enticing, as their defense has struggled all season, ranking near the bottom of the league in goals allowed per game. Vrana’s offensive upside is boosted by his ability to contribute on the power play, and with a projected optimal lineup rate of 8.76%, he’s a solid candidate to provide production well above his price point.

At 9.16% ownership, Vrana is drawing moderate attention relative to his salary and role, which is reasonable given his ceiling at this price. While not exactly a contrarian play, his combination of affordability and opportunity makes him an efficient way to free up cap space for higher-priced stars elsewhere in your lineup. If you’re building around expensive stacks or top-tier skaters, Vrana fits perfectly as a value piece with legitimate upside in this favorable matchup against Chicago’s porous defense.

Honorable Mentions

• Filip Forsberg ($8,400)
• Tyler Toffoli ($5,200)
• Martin Necas ($6,600)

D Plays

Top Play: Jake Walman ($2,500)

Jake Walman ($2,500) stands out as an elite value play on this slate, offering a strong projection of 10.82 DraftKings points at a rock-bottom salary. His 4.33x value rating is unmatched among defensemen, and his inclusion in 31.08% of optimal lineups highlights just how impactful he could be in tournaments. The matchup against Dallas isn’t ideal, but Walman’s price makes him nearly matchup-proof. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—shots, blocks, and secondary offensive production—provides a stable floor for cash games while still offering upside for GPPs at this price point.

The primary concern here is ownership, as Walman is projected to be rostered by 35.16% of the field—a significant number compared to the average player ownership of 3.9%. While chalk this heavy can often be worth fading in tournaments, Walman’s unique combination of price and role makes him difficult to ignore. He ranks first overall in tournament value for good reason, so fading him entirely could leave you exposed if he hits his projection or exceeds it. Instead, consider going overweight or underweight on him based on your contest size and risk tolerance rather than avoiding him outright.

Honorable Mentions

• Cale Makar ($7,600)
• Evan Bouchard ($6,300)
• Darnell Nurse ($4,700)

G Plays

Top Play: Jakub Dobes ($6,500)

Jakub Dobes ($6,500) is shaping up to be a popular value option in net, with ownership projected at 22.5%. While the elevated ownership might give some pause in tournaments, there’s a lot to like here. The matchup against Calgary is favorable, as the Flames rank dead last in goals per game this season (2.58). Dobes has been solid in limited NHL action with a 2.63 GAA and .909 save percentage over 10 appearances, and his salary opens up plenty of flexibility for high-end skaters. At a projected 1.77x value and appearing in nearly 8% of optimal lineups, he’s a strong play for those looking to save at goalie without sacrificing upside.

That said, his high ownership makes him less appealing if you’re aiming for leverage in large-field tournaments. Goalies are naturally volatile, and while Dobes offers solid floor potential due to the matchup, he’s not immune to variance—especially on the road against a team looking to turn things around offensively. If you’re comfortable eating the chalk for salary relief, he’s one of the better options at this price point. However, fading him in favor of lower-owned alternatives could differentiate your lineup construction while still maintaining strong upside in GPPs.

Honorable Mentions

• Jake Oettinger ($7,600)
• Dustin Wolf ($7,900)
• Darcy Kuemper ($8,200)

*Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections.