FREE 03/13 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 9-game NHL slate offers a solid mix of high-scoring potential and tight defensive matchups, giving DFS players plenty to consider. The Vegas-Columbus game stands out with the highest total on the board at 6.5, making it an appealing spot for offensive stacks, especially against Elvis Merzlikins, who has struggled early this season. Meanwhile, Edmonton and New Jersey (6.0 total) bring firepower on both sides, and with Stuart Skinner in net for the Oilers, New Jersey’s top scorers could be in a favorable position.

On the flip side, several games project as lower-scoring affairs that might favor goaltenders or value plays. The Rangers-Wild matchup features two strong defensive teams and elite goalies in Igor Shesterkin and Filip Gustavsson, making it less appealing for offense but intriguing for netminder options. Similarly, Boston-Ottawa (5.5 total) could be more of a grind-it-out game with Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark confirmed to start. Balancing exposure to these slower-paced games with higher-total matchups like Tampa-Philly (6.0) will be key to navigating tonight’s slate effectively.

Top Stacks

TOR PP1 ($22,300)

Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner

The TOR PP1 stack of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner offers a strong combination of projected production and value. With a total salary of $22,300, the stack is projected for 39.1 points, resulting in a solid value of 1.75 pts/$1000. Its average ownership of 6.9% is relatively modest compared to its optimal lineup rate of 9.0%, indicating it is slightly underutilized relative to its potential upside in DFS contests. As a power-play unit stack, it benefits from increased correlation opportunities, making it an appealing option for GPPs where leverage against the field can be critical. Overall, this stack balances high-end projection with reasonable ownership and positive leverage in optimal lineup rates.

NJD PP1 ($18,600)

Timo Meier, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt

The NJD PP1 stack of Timo Meier, Nico Hischier, and Jesper Bratt offers a strong combination of projected production and leverage for NHL DFS contests. With a total salary of $18,600, the stack delivers 31.9 projected points, translating to a solid value of 1.72 pts/$1000. Ownership is modest at an average of 4.6%, providing significant leverage given its optimal lineup rate of 9.0%, nearly double the ownership percentage. This disparity between ownership and optimal rate highlights the stack’s potential to outperform expectations relative to its usage, making it an appealing option for tournaments where differentiation is key.

EDM PP1 ($23,600)

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard

The EDM PP1 stack of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard is a high-upside option with a projected 41.1 points at a total salary of $23,600, resulting in a solid value of 1.74 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of 7.2% and an optimal lineup rate of 8.9%, the stack offers slightly positive leverage in DFS contests, making it an appealing choice for tournaments. The combination of elite point potential and relatively moderate ownership enhances its viability as a top-tier power-play unit while maintaining differentiation in large-field GPPs.

C Plays

Top Play: Auston Matthews ($8,900)

Auston Matthews ($8,900) is in a strong spot tonight against the Panthers, who rank middle of the pack defensively but have been prone to high-event games. Matthews’ 12-game point streak (18 points) highlights his elite form, and while his shooting percentage is below his career average, he’s still generating plenty of chances with consistent shot volume. His power-play role adds another layer of upside against Florida’s penalty kill, which has been inconsistent this season. With a 16.45-point projection and appearing in 14.7% of optimal lineups, he offers both a solid floor and a ceiling worth chasing in this game environment.

At 12.4% ownership, Matthews will be one of the more popular plays on the slate, but the chalk appears warranted given his recent production and matchup. His ability to contribute across categories—shots, goals, assists—makes him less likely to disappoint even at an elevated salary. While he won’t provide leverage in tournaments, fading him carries significant risk given his high optimal percentage and role as Toronto’s offensive engine. If you’re looking for exposure to a top-tier center with multi-point potential, Matthews is firmly in play despite the ownership concerns.

Honorable Mentions

• Macklin Celebrini ($7,300)
• Jack Eichel ($8,300)
• Leon Draisaitl ($8,500)

W Plays

Top Play: David Pastrnak ($8,800)

David Pastrnak ($8,800) is in a strong spot tonight against Ottawa. With a projection of 17.3 DraftKings points and appearing in 16.6% of optimal lineups, his combination of floor and ceiling makes him one of the top tournament options on the slate. His shot volume is elite, and with Ottawa’s penalty kill ranking among the league’s worst, Pastrnak’s power-play role only adds to his appeal. While his salary is steep, his ability to consistently generate scoring chances—evidenced by 39 points in his last 22 games—justifies the price tag.

At 9% projected ownership, Pastrnak will be one of the more popular plays relative to the field average, but that doesn’t make him bad chalk. His high floor from shot volume alone mitigates some risk, and he has clear upside in this matchup against an Ottawa team that struggles defensively. If you’re building around a high-priced winger tonight, Pastrnak is worth prioritizing given his consistency and game-breaking potential in this spot.

Honorable Mentions

• Tyler Toffoli ($5,800)
• Nikita Kucherov ($8,700)
• Brady Tkachuk ($8,000)

D Plays

Top Play: Cam Fowler ($3,500)

Cam Fowler ($3,500) stands out as a strong value play on this slate, particularly in tournaments. Projected for 7.76 DK points with a 2.22x value multiplier, he offers solid upside at a very affordable salary. The matchup against Pittsburgh isn’t ideal given their ability to control play at home, but Fowler’s role on the top pairing and likely power play exposure keeps him firmly in play. Since joining the Blues, he’s been productive with 21 points in 34 games, showcasing his ability to contribute offensively from the blue line.

At 14.4% projected ownership, Fowler will be one of the chalkier value defensemen on the slate, which is worth considering in GPPs. While his salary and role justify the popularity to some extent, there are risks tied to his limited peripherals—he’s not a high shot or block volume player. That said, his optimal lineup rate of 7.68% suggests he’s still a worthwhile option for tournaments despite the ownership. If you’re comfortable eating chalk here, Fowler provides cap relief with decent upside, but consider pivoting if you’re building contrarian lineups.

Honorable Mentions

• Zach Werenski ($7,800)
• Evan Bouchard ($6,100)
• Thomas Chabot ($4,700)

G Plays

Top Play: Linus Ullmark ($8,200)

Linus Ullmark ($8,200) steps into a challenging matchup against the Bruins, but his recent form and workload make him an intriguing option for DFS. He’s coming off a stellar 48-save performance against Detroit and has now started in nine of Ottawa’s last 11 games, showing the team’s trust in him as their workhorse down the stretch. With a projection of 13.82 DK points and strong value at 1.69x, Ullmark offers a solid combination of floor and ceiling, especially given Boston’s tendency to generate high shot volume. However, his upside could be capped if the Senators struggle defensively against a deep Bruins lineup.

At 14.1% ownership, Ullmark is one of the chalkier goalie options on this slate, which raises some concerns for tournament players looking to differentiate their lineups. While he ranks third in tournament GPP ranks and appears in nearly 10% of optimal lineups, his popularity makes it important to weigh whether his value justifies the risk in this spot. Boston’s offensive firepower could lead to goals allowed despite potential save volume, so Ullmark may be better suited for cash games where his floor is safer rather than tournaments where leverage matters more.

Honorable Mentions

• Anthony Stolarz ($7,500)
• Jake Allen ($7,300)
• Elvis Merzlikins ($7,000)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!