FREE 03/17 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game NHL slate offers a mix of intriguing matchups and some notable goaltending situations to consider for DFS lineups. The Sabres-Bruins game carries a 6.0 total, making it one of the higher-scoring environments on the board, but with Joonas Korpisalo in net for Boston, Buffalo’s offense could have its work cut out for them. Meanwhile, the Devils travel to Columbus in another game with a 6.0 total, where Jake Allen and Jet Greaves are confirmed starters—potentially opening up opportunities for offensive stacks.

On the lower-total side, the Flames-Leafs (5.5) and Kings-Wild (5.5) games might be more appealing for those targeting strong goaltending or defensive value plays. Joseph Woll has been steady for Toronto and could be worth a look against Dustin Wolf in Calgary’s net. Similarly, Filip Gustavsson gets the nod for Minnesota at home, which could limit LA’s scoring upside despite their recent form. With only five games to choose from, focusing on key matchups and goalie performances will be critical in building competitive lineups tonight.

Top Stacks

TBL PP1 ($22,100)

Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Jake Guentzel

The TBL PP1 stack of Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, and Jake Guentzel offers a strong combination of projected production and value. With a total salary of $22,100 and projected points of 39.0, the stack delivers a solid value of 1.76 pts/$1000, making it an efficient option for its price. Ownership is moderate at an average of 11.1%, suggesting the stack will not be overly chalky while still garnering some attention. Notably, the optimal lineup rate of 18.0% outpaces its ownership, indicating that this stack is more likely to appear in winning lineups than its popularity might suggest. This combination of efficiency, moderate ownership, and high optimal rate positions the TBL PP1 stack as a data-driven choice with strong upside in DFS contests.

TOR PP1 ($23,200)

Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner

The TOR PP1 stack of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner carries a total salary of $23,200 and is projected for 42.5 points, resulting in a value of 1.83 pts/$1000. This value is solid for a high-priced stack, offering strong upside relative to its cost. The stack’s average ownership sits at 13.6%, which is moderately high but not prohibitive, while its optimal lineup rate of 14.2% slightly outpaces its ownership, indicating it provides slight leverage in tournaments. Overall, the combination of elite players and efficient pricing makes this a viable option with reasonable ownership relative to its likelihood of appearing in optimal lineups.

CBJ PP1 ($19,700)

Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli

The CBJ PP1 stack of Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko, and Adam Fantilli offers a solid projection of 34.9 points with a value of 1.77 pts/$1000 based on their $19,700 combined salary. This positions the stack as moderately efficient in terms of cost relative to production. With an average ownership of 9.6%, it carries reasonable leverage potential when compared to its optimal lineup rate of 12.3%, indicating a slight edge in terms of outperforming its expected usage in DFS contests. As a power-play unit, the stack benefits from correlation opportunities, which enhance its ceiling potential while maintaining competitive ownership levels for tournament play.

C Plays

Top Play: Auston Matthews ($9,000)

Auston Matthews is in a prime spot tonight against Calgary, and while his $9,000 salary is steep, the numbers back up his upside. He’s projected for 17.72 DraftKings points with a strong 19.92% optimal lineup rate, which speaks to both his floor and ceiling. Calgary’s defense has been inconsistent this season, and Matthews’ ability to generate high shot volume makes him a safe anchor for cash games while maintaining GPP appeal. His recent production—18 points in his last 12 games—underscores his ability to deliver even in less favorable game environments.

The main concern here is ownership, as Matthews is expected to be rostered at 21.16%, making him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. However, this level of popularity feels justified given his elite projection and matchup. If you’re looking to differentiate in tournaments, pairing him with lower-owned Toronto teammates or fading him entirely could create leverage opportunities. That said, fading Matthews carries risk; he’s ranked as the top tournament play for good reason and offers one of the highest ceilings on the slate.

Honorable Mentions

• John Tavares ($6,100)
• Nazem Kadri ($6,500)
• Nico Hischier ($6,800)

W Plays

Top Play: Nikita Kucherov ($8,700)

Nikita Kucherov comes in as one of the top tournament plays on tonight’s slate, projecting for 15.8 DK points with a strong 21.9% optimal lineup rate. The $8,700 salary is steep, but it reflects his elite combination of floor and ceiling, especially in a favorable matchup against Philadelphia. The Flyers rank near the bottom of the league in penalty kill efficiency, which aligns perfectly with Kucherov’s heavy involvement on Tampa Bay’s top power play unit. His ability to generate consistent shot volume and rack up points makes him worth considering even at elevated ownership.

Speaking of ownership, Kucherov’s 14.1% projected roster rate is high relative to the field average but justifiable given his upside and role. While he won’t offer much leverage in large-field tournaments, fading him entirely could be risky considering his optimal percentage ranks second among all skaters tonight. If you’re building multiple lineups, he’s a strong anchor for cash games or chalkier GPP builds, but pairing him with lower-owned stacks elsewhere can help differentiate your lineups without sacrificing upside.

Honorable Mentions

• David Pastrnak ($9,200)
• Mitch Marner ($6,600)
• Timo Meier ($7,200)

D Plays

Top Play: Zach Werenski ($7,800)

Zach Werenski’s $7,800 salary might feel steep, but his recent production and role make him a strong option in tonight’s slate. With four multi-point games in his last seven, Werenski has been an offensive force, racking up nine points (three goals, six assists) over that span. His 220 shots on goal this season highlight a consistent floor for DFS purposes, while his power-play involvement (21 points on the man advantage) adds upside against a Devils team that has shown occasional vulnerability to skilled defensemen. The 15.2 DK point projection and 21% optimal lineup rate suggest he’s worth considering despite the price tag.

The main concern here is ownership—Werenski is projected at 16.8%, which is high relative to most defensemen. However, this chalk feels justified given his elite role as Columbus’ No. 1 blueliner and the fact that he contributes across multiple categories (shots, blocks, points). While you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere in tournaments, Werenski offers one of the most balanced combinations of floor and ceiling among defensemen on this slate. If you’re willing to eat some chalk at defense, he’s a strong play in both cash games and GPPs tonight.

Honorable Mentions

• Victor Hedman ($5,900)
• Rasmus Dahlin ($7,000)
• MacKenzie Weegar ($6,100)

G Plays

Top Play: Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,200)

Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,200) steps into a favorable spot at home against the Flyers, making him a strong consideration in both cash games and tournaments. While his recent form has been uneven—posting a 2.85 GAA and .887 save percentage over his last six starts—he has shown the ability to dominate this matchup, as evidenced by his .968 save percentage against Philadelphia earlier this season. The Flyers rank in the bottom half of the league in goals per game and lack significant scoring depth, which bolsters Vasilevskiy’s chances of securing a win and limiting damage. At 16.6% optimal lineup appearance, he offers solid value for his salary despite not being a standout bargain.

The main concern here is ownership, as Vasilevskiy is projected to be highly rostered at 22.2%. While that level of chalk can be risky in tournaments, it’s somewhat justified given his high floor as a home favorite and Tampa Bay’s ability to control play against weaker opponents like Philadelphia. If you’re looking for leverage in GPPs, fading him could make sense given the volatility of goaltending performance. However, his combination of win equity, matchup strength, and historical success against this team makes him one of the safer plays on the slate for those prioritizing stability in their lineups.

Honorable Mentions

• Jet Greaves ($7,100)
• Filip Gustavsson ($7,600)
• Joseph Woll ($8,000)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!