FREE 03/20 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

It’s a loaded 14-game NHL slate tonight, which means plenty of opportunities to find value and upside for your DFS lineups. A few high-total matchups stand out, including Colorado visiting Ottawa and Tampa Bay taking on Dallas, both sitting at a 6.0 over/under. These games could offer some intriguing stacking options, especially with the Avalanche offense firing on all cylinders and the Stars facing a Lightning team backstopped by Andrei Vasilevskiy. On the flip side, Toronto heads to New York to face Igor Shesterkin and the Rangers in what projects to be a tighter contest with a 5.5 total.

Goaltending is another key factor tonight with several elite netminders in action. Ilya Sorokin at home against Montreal and Igor Shesterkin hosting the Leafs are strong options if you’re prioritizing saves and win equity in lower-scoring environments. For contrarian plays, targeting weaker defensive matchups like Anaheim-Nashville or Carolina-San Jose could pay off given their higher totals (both at 6.0) and less reliable goaltending situations. With so many games on the schedule, narrowing your focus to teams in favorable spots will be crucial for building competitive lineups.

Top Stacks

COL PP1 ($23,200)

Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Martin Necas

The COL PP1 stack of Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Martin Necas comes with a total salary of $23,200 and is projected for 43.0 points, yielding a solid value of 1.85 points per $1000. With an average ownership of 6.1%, this stack offers leverage potential in GPP formats, as its optimal lineup rate sits at 9.3%, exceeding its ownership by a notable margin. This positive leverage suggests the stack has a higher likelihood of appearing in top-performing lineups than its popularity implies, making it an appealing option for tournaments despite its high salary commitment.

NSH PP1 ($21,100)

Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Stamkos

The NSH PP1 stack, consisting of Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault, and Steven Stamkos, carries a total salary of $21,100 and projects for 35.5 points, resulting in a solid value of 1.68 pts/$1000. With an average ownership of just 4.7%, this stack offers strong leverage relative to its optimal lineup rate of 6.2%, suggesting it is slightly underutilized in DFS contests. As a power-play-focused stack, its lower ownership enhances its appeal as a contrarian option with reasonable upside for GPP formats, given its efficient point-per-dollar projection and optimal rate exceeding expected usage.

UTA PP1 ($18,700)

Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev

The UTA PP1 stack of Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller, and Mikhail Sergachev carries a total salary of $18,700 with a projected point output of 35.5, translating to a solid value of 1.90 pts/$1000. This value is competitive but not elite in terms of efficiency for its price range. The stack’s average ownership rate is 8.8%, which is moderate and could provide some leverage in tournaments given its optimal lineup rate of 6.2%. However, the optimal rate slightly underperforms relative to ownership, indicating that while this stack has upside due to its correlation as a power-play unit, it may not be the most efficient option in terms of ceiling versus popularity.

C Plays

Top Play: Nathan MacKinnon ($9,000)

Nathan MacKinnon ($9,000) stands out as a premier option in tonight’s slate, and for good reason. His combination of elite shot volume (280 shots this season) and consistent production (104 points in 69 games) gives him one of the highest floors at any position. Facing an Ottawa team that has struggled defensively, particularly on the penalty kill, MacKinnon’s power-play role adds even more upside to his already impressive ceiling. With a projection of 17.89 DraftKings points and appearing in 15.94% of optimal lineups, he’s priced appropriately but still offers strong value at nearly 2x his salary.

The ownership (8.7%) is high relative to the field average but still manageable for tournaments given his slate-leading projection and GPP rank. While he’ll be popular, the chalk feels justified considering the favorable matchup and his ability to dominate in all situations. If you’re looking for a high-floor anchor with legitimate multi-point upside, MacKinnon is worth paying up for in both cash games and tournaments despite the elevated ownership.

Honorable Mentions

• Auston Matthews ($8,900)
• Sebastian Aho ($7,500)
• Aleksander Barkov ($6,900)

W Plays

Top Play: Tyler Toffoli ($5,500)

Tyler Toffoli ($5,500) makes for a compelling tournament option tonight against Carolina, particularly at just 3% projected ownership. While the Hurricanes are a tough defensive team, their aggressive style can lead to high-event games, which benefits a volume shooter like Toffoli. With four goals and six points over his last seven games, he’s been in strong form and continues to see top-six minutes with power-play exposure. At 1.83x value and appearing in 8.7% of optimal lineups, he offers solid upside relative to his salary.

The moderate ownership level keeps Toffoli intriguing as a leverage play in GPPs. He’s not flying completely under the radar but is low enough owned to differentiate your lineup from the field. His projection of 10.08 DK points ranks him fourth among tournament options at his position, and his ability to generate offense even in difficult matchups provides both floor and ceiling potential. If you’re looking for mid-tier value with upside in a challenging matchup, Toffoli fits the bill nicely here.

Honorable Mentions

• David Pastrnak ($8,700)
• Clayton Keller ($7,000)
• Dylan Guenther ($6,400)

D Plays

Top Play: Cale Makar ($7,700)

Cale Makar ($7,700) is one of the most reliable DFS options on the slate, especially given his consistent production from the back end. His 14.25-point projection and 10.1% optimal lineup rate highlight both his high ceiling and his ability to provide value despite a steep salary. The matchup against Ottawa is favorable for offensive opportunities, as they rank middle-of-the-pack defensively but struggle on the penalty kill, where Makar thrives with 32 power-play points this season. With an elite shot volume (209 shots in 69 games) and strong peripheral stats like blocked shots (104), Makar’s floor is solid even if he doesn’t find the scoresheet.

At 7.1% projected ownership, Makar will be one of the more popular defensemen on this slate, but that chalk feels justified considering his upside and reliability. While he doesn’t offer much leverage in tournaments, his combination of floor and ceiling makes him a strong foundational piece for lineups. If you’re looking to differentiate elsewhere, Makar still provides enough value to justify eating the ownership in what should be an up-tempo game environment against Ottawa.

Honorable Mentions

• Zach Werenski ($7,500)
• Noah Dobson ($6,000)
• Mikhail Sergachev ($5,300)

G Plays

Top Play: Sam Montembeault ($7,400)

Sam Montembeault ($7,400) is an intriguing tournament option in net tonight, facing a low-scoring Islanders team averaging just 2.70 goals per game—sixth-worst in the league. He’s been rock-solid recently, boasting a .923 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA over his last three starts, all wins. At this price point, Montembeault offers strong value with a 1.57x projection multiplier and appears in 8.3% of optimal lineups, making him one of the top-ranked goalie options for GPPs. The road matchup isn’t overly intimidating given New York’s offensive struggles, and his recent form gives him a solid floor.

Ownership is moderate at 4.1%, slightly above the field average for goalies but far from chalky. This creates a nice balance of leverage and safety for tournaments—he’s not so highly owned that you’re eating massive chalk but also not so contrarian that it feels like a reach. If you’re looking for mid-tier salary relief with upside in net, Montembeault checks plenty of boxes tonight in what should be a favorable spot against an Islanders team that doesn’t generate much offensive pressure.

Honorable Mentions

• Adin Hill ($8,300)
• Linus Ullmark ($7,400)
• John Gibson ($7,100)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!