FREE 04/11 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game NHL slate offers a mix of intriguing matchups and varying game environments to navigate for DFS. The highest total on the board belongs to the Sharks-Oilers contest (6.5), where Edmonton’s potent offense faces San Jose’s struggling defense and unproven goaltending in Georgi Romanov. On the flip side, the Canadiens-Senators and Wild-Flames games both sit at a modest 5.5 total, hinting at slower-paced, lower-scoring affairs that may limit fantasy upside.

In net, there are some notable spots to target or avoid. Andrei Vasilevskiy gets the nod for Tampa Bay against Detroit in a game with a solid 6.0 total, making him an appealing option if you’re paying up for goaltending. Meanwhile, Sam Montembeault and Linus Ullmark square off in Ottawa, where Ullmark’s consistency could make him a safer choice in a lower-total matchup. With plenty of ways to approach this slate—whether it’s stacking Edmonton or finding value in tighter games—tonight should offer something for every type of DFS build.

Top Stacks

EDM PP1 ($23,200)

Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard, Zach Hyman

The EDM PP1 stack of Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard, and Zach Hyman is projected for 45.4 points at a total salary of $23,200, yielding a value of 1.95 pts/$1000. While this value is solid for a high-salary stack, it falls short of being an elite return on investment. The average ownership of 23.8% reflects significant popularity in tournaments, which may limit its uniqueness. Additionally, the optimal lineup rate of 18.0% suggests that while this stack has a strong ceiling and is viable in GPPs, its ownership slightly outweighs its optimal probability, making it somewhat over-leveraged relative to other options. This stack’s appeal lies in its high projection but comes with elevated ownership risk.

TBL PP1 ($23,900)

Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point

The TBL PP1 stack of Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, and Brayden Point offers a strong combination of projected points and value. With a total salary of $23,900, the stack is projected for 42.6 points, equating to a solid value of 1.78 pts/$1000. Its average ownership rate of 11.3% positions it as moderately popular but not overly chalky in tournaments, while its optimal lineup rate of 12.9% slightly exceeds its ownership, suggesting positive leverage in GPP formats. As a power-play unit (PP1), this stack benefits from increased correlation opportunities, enhancing its upside potential relative to standard line combinations. Overall, it presents a well-balanced option with competitive value and leverage metrics for DFS lineups.

SJS PP1 ($17,100)

Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli, William Eklund

The SJS PP1 stack of Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli, and William Eklund carries a combined salary of $17,100 with a solid projection of 31.0 points, translating to a value of 1.81 pts/$1000. This value is competitive for a high-salary power-play unit, offering strong point-per-dollar efficiency. The stack’s average ownership is relatively moderate at 8.3%, which positions it as a viable contrarian option in tournaments while still providing upside. Its optimal lineup rate of 11.8% exceeds its ownership percentage, indicating positive leverage and suggesting it has a higher probability of appearing in winning lineups than its popularity reflects. This makes the SJS PP1 stack an analytically sound choice for DFS lineups based on the available data.

C Plays

Top Play: Connor McDavid ($8,800)

Connor McDavid ($8,800) is the clear top play on this slate, and for good reason. Facing a San Jose team that ranks dead last in both goals allowed and penalty kill percentage, McDavid is set up for success in an elite matchup. His 18.72 DK point projection leads all skaters, and his 28.2% optimal lineup rate underscores his strong combination of floor and ceiling. With 22 points (4 goals, 18 assists) over his last 14 games and heavy ice time in all situations, McDavid’s production is as reliable as it gets. While his salary is steep, the matchup and game environment make him worth prioritizing in both cash games and tournaments.

The primary concern here is ownership—McDavid is projected at a hefty 36.5%, making him the chalkiest player on the slate. However, this chalk feels justified given his role, matchup, and ability to break slates with multi-point performances. Fading him entirely could be risky in tournaments unless you’re banking on an outlier performance or looking to differentiate with lower-owned Edmonton stacks. Ultimately, McDavid’s combination of elite projection and favorable matchup makes him difficult to fade despite the ownership concerns.

Honorable Mentions

• Brayden Point ($7,100)
• Adam Henrique ($4,200)
• Macklin Celebrini ($6,900)

W Plays

Top Play: Jeff Skinner ($5,200)

Jeff Skinner ($5,200) stands out as a solid mid-range option in tournaments tonight, especially with a favorable matchup against San Jose. The Sharks have struggled defensively all season, ranking near the bottom of the league in most defensive metrics, which boosts Skinner’s upside. While he plays a bottom-six role, his recent production—five goals and two assists in his last nine games—shows he can still generate offense when given the opportunity. His 15.7% optimal lineup rate underscores his strong value at this salary, making him a worthwhile consideration despite limited ice time.

At 15.4% projected ownership, Skinner is one of the chalkier plays on this slate relative to the field average. However, given his top tournament rank and excellent value (1.97x), the popularity appears justified in this spot. He’s an efficient way to gain exposure to Edmonton’s offense without breaking the bank, and with San Jose’s defensive issues, there’s potential for him to outperform his modest role. While his floor isn’t secure due to limited shot volume and ice time, the combination of matchup and price makes him an intriguing GPP target if you’re comfortable eating some chalk.

Honorable Mentions

• Nikita Kucherov ($8,900)
• Kirill Kaprizov ($8,000)
• Zach Hyman ($6,800)

D Plays

Top Play: Mattias Ekholm ($4,400)

Mattias Ekholm ($4,400) stands out as an excellent value play on this slate with a strong matchup against the San Jose Sharks. San Jose has struggled defensively all season, and their inability to suppress chances makes this a prime spot for Edmonton’s blue line to contribute offensively. Ekholm projects well at 10.22 DraftKings points with a solid 2.32x value multiplier, and his presence in 12.46% of optimal lineups highlights his upside at this price point. While he’s not typically known for heavy shot volume, his ability to chip in with assists and blocked shots gives him a respectable floor, especially in favorable matchups like this one.

At just 7% projected ownership, Ekholm offers moderate leverage in tournaments relative to his strong projection and top-ranked GPP value among defensemen. The field seems slightly underweight on him given his role on an Oilers team that should dominate puck possession against San Jose. His salary allows you to fit higher-priced studs elsewhere without sacrificing too much upside, making him a smart mid-range option for both single-entry and multi-entry builds.

Honorable Mentions

• Evan Bouchard ($7,600)
• Victor Hedman ($6,300)
• MacKenzie Weegar ($6,000)

G Plays

Top Play: Filip Gustavsson ($7,600)

Filip Gustavsson ($7,600) stands out as a strong option in goal tonight against Calgary. The Wild are playing for playoff positioning, and Gustavsson has been their workhorse down the stretch, starting 16 of the last 19 games. His consistency is notable, with a career-high 30 wins and solid underlying metrics. While Calgary’s offense has been middle-of-the-pack this season, Gustavsson’s value at 1.93x and his appearance in 25.5% of optimal lineups make him a top-tier play in all formats. At his salary, he projects well relative to other goaltenders on the slate, offering both a steady floor and upside if Minnesota can limit chances.

The main concern here is ownership—Gustavsson is expected to be highly rostered at 23.8%. While that level of chalk may deter some tournament players, it’s likely justified given his combination of form, matchup, and price point. If you’re looking to differentiate your lineup, fading him could create leverage in GPPs, but you’d be passing on one of the slate’s safest plays at the position. For cash games or single-entry contests, locking him in makes plenty of sense given his reliability and the Wild’s defensive structure.

Honorable Mentions

• Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,200)
• Jake Allen ($8,300)
• Linus Ullmark ($8,000)

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