FREE 1/23 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

In tonight’s expansive 11-game NHL slate, DFS players have ample opportunity to leverage high-scoring games, especially those with over/under totals set at 6.0, including Canadiens @ Red Wings, Blue Jackets @ Hurricanes, Golden Knights @ Blues, Hockey Club @ Wild, Penguins @ Ducks, and Predators @ Sharks. Noteworthy in the goalie matchups are the likes of Igor Shesterkin for the Rangers, who can provide a solid foundation against the Flyers, and Juuse Saros for the Predators, offering a high-upside play against the Sharks. Given the slate’s size, diversifying lineups to capitalize on the games with higher scoring potentials and incorporating goalies with strong win and save upside are key strategies.

Top Stacks

NSH PP1 ($23,500)

Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Jonathan Marchessault

The NSH PP1 stack, consisting of Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, and Jonathan Marchessault, presents a high-upside option for DFS players, particularly in tournaments. With a combined salary of $23,500 and projected points at 42.0, the stack offers a solid value of 1.79 pts/$1000. The average ownership rate of 12.4% suggests that while it is somewhat popular among players, it still retains differentiation potential to gain an edge in large-field tournaments. The optimal rate of 9.8% indicates that this stack is viable but not overexposed in optimal lineup constructions, highlighting its tournament viability without being a consensus play. Given the roles of Forsberg, Josi, and Marchessault on NSH’s first power-play unit (PP1), there’s a strong correlation in their scoring opportunities—especially in favorable game environments where power plays are more likely. This correlation enhances the upside of this stack because scoring from any one player often directly benefits the others through assists or goals scored during the power play. Overall, considering their positions and involvement in special teams play, this stack has significant upside in tournaments due to its balanced blend of value, moderate ownership levels for differentiation purposes, and strong intra-stack scoring correlation within what can be presumed to be an advantageous game environment for NSH’s PP1 unit.

MIN PP1 ($22,000)

Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello

The Minnesota Wild’s first power-play unit (PP1) stack, comprising Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Mats Zuccarello, presents a high-upside option for DFS tournaments with its projected points at 38.7 and a total salary of $22,000. This trio’s synergy on the PP1 underscores a strong correlation factor that can exploit favorable game environments, particularly against teams with weaker penalty kill units. With an average ownership of 6.4% and an optimal rate of 8.0%, this stack offers a blend of differentiation and leverage in large field tournaments without being too contrarian. The value metric at 1.76 pts/$1000 further indicates an efficient allocation of salary cap relative to their scoring potential. However, their effectiveness hinges significantly on the Wild securing power play opportunities in the matchup, making pre-game analysis of the opposing team’s discipline and penalty kill efficiency crucial for assessing this stack’s tournament viability on any given slate.

ANA PP1 ($14,700)

Frank Vatrano, Troy Terry, Jackson LaCombe

The Anaheim Ducks’ first power-play (PP1) stack consisting of Frank Vatrano, Troy Terry, and Jackson LaCombe presents a compelling option for DFS tournament play due to its balanced mix of upside and ownership. With a total salary of $14,700 and a projected point total of 30.5, the stack offers a value of 2.08 points per $1000, which is noteworthy for constructing cost-effective lineups. The average ownership rate of 8.9% coupled with an optimal rate of 8.0% indicates that while this stack is not overly popular among DFS players, it still garners enough attention to be considered viable in tournaments without being too chalky. This level of ownership suggests that the stack could provide differentiation in large field tournaments without sacrificing too much in terms of expected output.

Analyzing the game environment further enhances the appeal of this stack; power-play units typically have higher correlation scores due to their increased opportunity for scoring and point accumulation through assists on the same goal, making this PP1 unit attractive for its potential to capitalize on matchups against teams with weaker penalty kill units. In sum, this ANA PP1 stack offers a solid blend of upside through scoring potential on the power play, reasonable correlation among its members for point accumulation, and an appealing game environment context that could lead to exceeding their projected points. Thus, it stands out as a strategically sound choice for tournament play where leveraging less common combinations can lead to higher finishes amidst competition.

C Plays

Top Play: Nazem Kadri ($6,300)

Nazem Kadri’s recent performance underscores his value as a consistent offensive contributor for the Calgary Flames, making him a noteworthy consideration for tonight’s DFS slate. With points in four of his last five contests, including two goals and two assists, Kadri’s productivity is on an upward trend. Highlighted by his power-play assist in the recent win over the Kings, and a crucial goal in the overtime victory against the Ducks, Kadri’s ability to contribute both on even strength and special teams enhances his DFS appeal. His season totals of 29 points through 41 games, supplemented by 140 shots on goal and a significant role in the power-play unit, underscore his potential for high DFS output.

The matchup against the Buffalo Sabres presents a favorable game environment for Kadri. Despite his minus-13 rating, his offensive upside in a top-line role could exploit the Sabres’ defensive vulnerabilities. With a projected 11.3 DK points and strong value at 1.8x his $6,300 salary, Kadri appears in 11.2% of optimal lineups, indicating his potential for high DFS performance. However, with an expected ownership of 7.9%, he offers a blend of upside and differential value in GPP tournaments, making him a solid play. Given the context of his recent form and the matchup dynamics, Kadri stands out as a viable tournament option, particularly for those looking to balance cost-effectiveness with the potential for a high-scoring outing.

Honorable Mentions

• Leon Draisaitl ($9,300)
• Sidney Crosby ($8,000)
• Sebastian Aho ($7,500)

W Plays

Top Play: Troy Terry ($5,100)

Troy Terry has demonstrated a steady level of production over recent games, which is a positive sign for DFS players considering him for their lineups. With two points in his last four contests, including a power-play assist in the recent loss to the Panthers, Terry is showing signs of contributing on a consistent basis. His season stats, with 15 goals and 20 assists over 43 games, underscore his role as one of the Anaheim Ducks’ primary offensive contributors. However, it’s worth noting that his contributions are largely restricted to offensive statistics, and he may not offer much in terms of peripheral fantasy points from blocked shots or defensive metrics.

The matchup against Pittsburgh presents a challenging but potentially rewarding scenario for Terry. The Ducks’ reliance on him in power-play situations could play to his advantage, especially if the game becomes a high-scoring affair. With a salary of $5,100 and a projection of 10.2 DK points, Terry offers strong value at 2.0x, making him an intriguing option for GPP tournaments. His expected ownership at 7.7% suggests he could be a somewhat contrarian pick, with a decent percentage of lineups including him but not enough to make him a chalk play. Considering his recent performance, role in the Ducks’ offense, and the context of tonight’s game, Terry stands out as a solid tournament play who could exceed his value given the right game flow.

Honorable Mentions

• David Pastrnak ($8,900)
• Kirill Kaprizov ($9,000)
• Filip Forsberg ($8,300)

D Plays

Top Play: Jared Spurgeon ($4,100)

Jared Spurgeon’s recent return to the Minnesota Wild lineup after a lower-body injury that sidelined him for nine games is a pivotal factor in assessing his DFS value for tonight’s slate. Before his injury, Spurgeon’s performance trends were solid for a defenseman, contributing both offensively and defensively, which is reflected in his projection of 8.8 DK points tonight. His absence might have initially caused concern over his game-readiness, but the team’s decision to activate him and Kirill Kaprizov off injured reserve, sending David Jiricek back to the minors and scratching Travis Dermott, signals confidence in Spurgeon’s immediate impact. Given this context, his recent performance trend, while interrupted, suggests a potential for immediate contribution upon his return.

The matchup against Utah is favorable for Spurgeon, considering his role in the Wild’s lineup and his ability to contribute on both ends of the ice. With a salary of $4,100 and a strong value at 2.1x, he presents as an under-the-radar DFS asset, especially since he’s projected to appear in 5.8% of optimal lineups but is expected to be 8.6% owned. This discrepancy between his optimal lineup appearance rate and expected ownership indicates a slight undervaluation by the DFS community, making him a potentially savvy tournament play. Given the favorable matchup, his role upon return, and his DFS value coupled with projected ownership levels, Spurgeon stands out as a strong tournament option for tonight’s slate, especially for those looking to differentiate their lineups with a high-upside, lower-owned defenseman.

Honorable Mentions

• Roman Josi ($8,200)
• Jakob Chychrun ($5,500)
• Evan Bouchard ($7,000)

G Plays

Top Play: Frederik Andersen ($8,500)

Frederik Andersen’s recent return to the ice showcases a resilient performance, albeit with a .880 save percentage against the Blackhawks, which might raise concerns among DFS players considering his $8,500 salary. However, Andersen’s ability to secure a win in his comeback game suggests a potential for reliability in net for the Carolina Hurricanes. His recent performance, while not stellar, indicates a readiness to face off against challenging opponents, a critical factor to consider for tonight’s slate. Andersen’s projected 14.1 DK points and a strong value at 1.7x underscore his potential as a valuable asset in DFS lineups, despite appearing in only 7.7% of optimal lineups and expected to be 8.1% owned.

The matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets, a team tied for fifth in the NHL with 3.29 goals per game, presents a double-edged sword. This game environment suggests a high-scoring affair, which could either provide Andersen with plenty of save opportunities, enhancing his DFS scoring potential, or pose significant risks to his goals against average. Given the Hero GPP Rank of 1, Andersen is positioned as a top tournament play, particularly for those looking to differentiate their lineup in large-field tournaments. His somewhat moderate projected ownership offers a strategic leverage point for DFS players willing to bet on Andersen’s ability to handle a challenging opponent. In summary, Andersen represents a high-risk, high-reward DFS tournament play tonight, suitable for those looking to capitalize on potential game volume and save opportunities in a matchup that could go either way.

Honorable Mentions

• Juuse Saros ($8,300)
• Igor Shesterkin ($8,000)
• Joonas Korpisalo ($7,900)