FREE 1/29 NHL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game NHL slate offers a mix of tight totals and intriguing DFS decisions. The Penguins-Coyotes matchup carries the highest over/under at 6.0, making it a clear target for offensive upside, especially with Alex Nedeljkovic and Connor Ingram in net. Meanwhile, all four other games sit at a modest 5.5 total, including the Wild-Maple Leafs tilt in Toronto, where Joseph Woll faces Filip Gustavsson in what could be a lower-event game compared to others on the slate.

Goaltending will play a big role tonight, with some high-end options like Juuse Saros (vs. Vancouver) and Thatcher Demko (at Nashville) facing off in what should be a tightly contested matchup. On the flip side, matchups like Flyers-Devils—featuring Samuel Ersson and Jake Allen—could offer value plays if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup in GPPs. With only five games on the board, finding the right stacks and pivoting off chalky spots will be key to building competitive lineups.

Top Stacks

TOR PP1 ($22,700)

Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner

The Toronto PP1 stack of Matthews, Nylander, and Marner offers elite upside with a strong projected point total of 44.0 and an optimal rate of 19.5%, slightly outpacing its average ownership of 17.2%, indicating positive leverage for tournaments. The correlation between these players is among the highest in DFS due to their shared ice time on the power play and even-strength exposure, amplifying their ceiling in high-scoring game environments. While the $22,700 salary limits roster flexibility, the value metric of 1.94 pts/$1000 is solid for a top-tier stack. This combination makes it highly viable for GPPs, particularly in lineups targeting a high-event matchup or when paired with lower-owned complementary plays to offset ownership concentration.

NSH PP1 ($22,000)

Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Jonathan Marchessault

The NSH PP1 stack of Forsberg, Josi, and Marchessault offers strong tournament viability due to its favorable combination of upside, correlation, and leverage. With a projected 39.3 points and an optimal rate of 17.9%, this stack is outperforming its average ownership of 13.5%, providing positive leverage in GPPs. The 1.79 pts/$1000 value is solid for a high-salary stack, suggesting efficient production relative to cost. The power-play correlation between Forsberg and Josi enhances the likelihood of multi-point performances if NSH capitalizes on man-advantage opportunities, while Marchessault adds additional offensive upside in what could be a favorable game environment. This stack balances ceiling and ownership well, making it a strong option for tournaments seeking both differentiation and scoring potential.

NJD PP1 ($20,000)

Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton

The NJD PP1 stack of Hughes, Bratt, and Hamilton offers strong upside with a high projected points total of 36.9, driven by their elite power-play correlation and offensive efficiency. While the $20,000 salary limits flexibility, the value metric of 1.84 pts/$1000 is solid for a high-ceiling stack in tournaments. The average ownership of 14.9% suggests moderate popularity, but the optimal rate of 13.7% indicates this stack is slightly over-owned relative to its probability of being optimal. In favorable game environments with frequent power-play opportunities, this trio has significant tournament viability due to its ability to generate explosive multi-point performances through concentrated scoring contributions. However, consider leveraging unique secondary stacks or contrarian plays elsewhere to offset the ownership risk.

C Plays

Top Play: Auston Matthews ($9,000)

Auston Matthews ($9,000) is a top-tier play tonight in a strong matchup against Minnesota. His goal streak now sits at five games, and he’s been producing at an elite level since returning from injury with nine goals and 15 points over his last 10 outings. Matthews’ shot volume remains a cornerstone of his DFS appeal, as he’s consistently putting up 5+ shots per game, giving him both a secure floor and massive upside. With a projection of 17.53 DK points and appearing in 30.7% of optimal lineups, it’s clear why he ranks as the second-best GPP option on the slate.

The main concern here is ownership, with Matthews projected at 21.6%—high relative to the field average but justified given his recent form and ceiling potential. While chalky plays can be risky in tournaments, Matthews’ combination of elite performance, power play usage, and favorable matchup makes him tough to fade even at this salary. If you’re looking for leverage, consider building unique roster constructions around him rather than fading outright. He’s expensive but worth it in this spot given his ability to dominate any game environment.

Honorable Mentions

• Jack Hughes ($8,300)
• Logan Cooley ($5,400)
• J.T. Miller ($5,300)

W Plays

Top Play: Filip Forsberg ($8,000)

Filip Forsberg ($8,000) is in a fantastic spot against Vancouver, riding an impressive 10-game point streak where he’s piled up nine goals and 10 assists. His shot volume has been elite during this run, with six shots on goal in each of his last two games, which gives him a strong floor. Vancouver has improved defensively this season, but they still rank middle of the pack in scoring chances allowed. Forsberg’s power play role adds to his appeal here, as the Canucks’ penalty kill remains vulnerable. With a projection of 14.52 DK points and an appearance rate of 18.5% in optimal lineups, he carries both a high floor and ceiling.

At 16% projected ownership, Forsberg will be one of the more popular plays on this slate, but it’s chalk that makes sense given his recent production and matchup. While his $8,000 salary requires significant output to pay off, his current form supports the price tag. In tournaments, you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere if you roster him due to his relatively high ownership. However, fading him entirely could be risky given how consistent and involved he’s been offensively for Nashville. Overall, Forsberg profiles as a strong play for both cash games and tournaments despite the chalky ownership.

Honorable Mentions

• Clayton Keller ($6,500)
• Mitch Marner ($6,900)
• William Nylander ($6,800)

D Plays

Top Play: Roman Josi ($7,700)

Roman Josi ($7,700) is a strong option on tonight’s slate, even at his elevated salary. He’s riding a seven-game point streak, with 10 points (two goals, eight assists) over that span, including six power-play contributions. The matchup against Vancouver is appealing for his offensive upside, as the Canucks rank in the bottom half of the league in penalty kill efficiency. Josi’s role as the focal point of Nashville’s power play and his consistent shot volume (127 shots in 43 games) give him a high floor, while his ceiling remains significant given his recent form and involvement in all situations.

At 12.4% projected ownership, Josi will be one of the more popular defensemen on this slate, but it’s not unwarranted. His 20% optimal lineup rate suggests he’s a valuable piece despite being chalky, particularly in cash games or single-entry contests where securing a high floor is critical. For tournaments, you’ll need to decide if you’re willing to eat the ownership or pivot to less popular options at this salary tier. Either way, Josi’s combination of elite ice time, power-play production, and steady peripherals makes him a key consideration for tonight’s lineups.

Honorable Mentions

• Mikhail Sergachev ($5,300)
• Quinn Hughes ($7,400)
• Dougie Hamilton ($5,700)

G Plays

Top Play: Joseph Woll ($8,000)

Joseph Woll ($8,000) is a strong option in net tonight against the Wild. While Minnesota isn’t a high-powered offensive team, they generate enough chances to give Woll opportunities for saves, which helps pad his floor in DFS. Toronto is favored in this matchup, and with Woll carrying a 2.69 GAA and .907 save percentage across 24 starts, he’s been reliable enough to warrant consideration at this salary. His 15.7% optimal lineup rate reflects his strong value (1.6x), making him one of the top goaltending plays on the slate.

At 14.4% projected ownership, Woll will be chalky compared to the field average, but it’s justifiable given his price point and game environment. The Maple Leafs’ defensive structure should help limit high-danger chances from Minnesota’s offense, giving Woll a solid path to both saves and a win bonus. While he’s not necessarily a contrarian play, he offers stability for cash games and remains viable in tournaments due to his projection and rank as the top goalie on the slate.

Honorable Mentions

• Jake Allen ($8,100)
• Darcy Kuemper ($7,200)
• Sergei Bobrovsky ($8,200)

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