FREE 05/16 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 12-game slate features several solid pitching matchups with a handful of games carrying totals at or above 9 runs. The WSH-BAL and NYM-NYY games both have 9-run totals but come with rain risks—Baltimore has a high 68% chance of showers that could delay or postpone the game, while New York’s chance is lower at 29%. Keep an eye on those situations, as weather could impact lineups and in-game conditions. Other notable spots include SEA-SD and LAA-LAD, where weather looks favorable with clear skies and outfield winds that might help the bats.

Many games are indoors or in dome stadiums, like DET-TOR and HOU-TEX, removing weather concerns from the equation and making pitching more reliable. The ATL-BOS matchup has a modest total of 8 runs with low precipitation chances but steady winds blowing right to left, which could suppress offense slightly. Overall, this slate offers a mix of risk and opportunity depending on how weather plays out in the rain-threatened markets versus controlled environments inside domes.

Top Stacks

LAD 5-Man ($26,000)

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy

The LAD stack offers solid value at 1.94 points per $1000 with a total salary of $26,000, fitting well within budget constraints. Ownership sits moderately low at 12.2%, while the optimal lineup rate is 8.1%, indicating a reasonable balance between leverage and popularity. The game total of 9.5 suggests a favorable offensive environment, supported by partly cloudy conditions with mild 64°F temperatures and an 8 MPH wind blowing out, which can aid power hitting in Los Angeles. Featuring high-impact players like Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts enhances upside, making this stack a strong consideration given the matchup and weather factors.

KC 5-Man ($19,800)

Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia

The KC stack offers solid value at 2.16 points per $1000 on a $19,800 salary, aligning well with its moderate average ownership of 9.1% and optimal lineup rate of 7.3%. The 8.5 game total suggests a moderately paced scoring environment, supported by favorable weather conditions—clear skies, 79°F temperature, no precipitation, and an 18 MPH left-to-right wind that could aid right-handed hitters in this lineup. This combination of reasonable cost efficiency, manageable ownership, and conducive hitting conditions makes the KC stack a viable option for MLB DFS lineups targeting balanced upside without heavy chalk exposure.

WSH 5-Man ($21,500)

CJ Abrams, Amed Rosario, James Wood, Nathaniel Lowe, Alex Call

The WSH stack offers solid value at 2.07 points per $1000 with a total salary of $21,500, fitting well within budget constraints. The average ownership sits modestly at 7.2%, closely aligned with an optimal lineup rate of 6.7%, indicating this stack is reasonably leveraged in DFS pools without being overexposed. The game total of 9.0 suggests a favorable offensive environment, though weather conditions could impact scoring; there is a 68% chance of rain and possible delays in Baltimore with temperatures at 82°F and a 6 MPH wind blowing out, which may enhance power potential if the game proceeds uninterrupted. Overall, this stack balances cost efficiency and moderate ownership in a matchup that projects to be productive but carries some weather-related risk.

SP Plays

Top Play: Corbin Burnes ($9,100)

Corbin Burnes draws a favorable matchup at home against the Rockies, a team that ranks near the bottom in wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Burnes has shown solid command over his last seven starts with a 2.95 ERA and 33 strikeouts in just under 40 innings, though his walk rate remains elevated at 4.3 BB/9. Expect him to go deep into the game again given his recent pitch counts, which helps secure floor points and adds value in tournaments.

At $9,100, Burnes offers strong value with a 2.26x return on salary and appears in nearly a quarter of optimal lineups. His ownership around 25% is justified given the matchup and price point, making him one of the top pitching options tonight. The combination of strikeout upside against a weak Colorado lineup and the safe floor from expected innings pitched makes Burnes worth locking into GPPs despite the chalky tag.

Honorable Mentions

• Chris Sale ($8,900)
• Taj Bradley ($7,000)

C Plays

Top Play: Gabriel Moreno ($3,100)

Gabriel Moreno offers strong value at his $3,100 salary against the Rockies, a team that typically allows solid offense at Coors Field. While he bats sixth in the Arizona lineup, which slightly limits his plate appearance upside compared to the top of the order, Moreno’s right-handed bat fits well against Colorado’s right-handed pitching. His 2.31x value and presence in nearly 10% of optimal lineups reflect this matchup appeal.

That said, Moreno’s recent playing time has been inconsistent, with a couple of scheduled days off as the Diamondbacks rotate catchers. This could cap his floor if he doesn’t start or play full games regularly. The 9.3% ownership mirrors his DFS rank and salary well, suggesting the chalk is reasonable given his price and potential run environment but keep an eye on lineup announcements before committing fully.

Honorable Mentions

• Salvador Perez ($3,400)
• Ryan Jeffers ($3,700)

1B Plays

Top Play: Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)

Ohtani continues to deliver strong fantasy production from the leadoff spot for the Dodgers, boasting a .310/.409/.673 slash line with 15 homers this season. He faces a left-handed pitching matchup against the Angels, which generally suits him well given his power and ability to get on base early. The Dodgers have a solid implied team total tonight, creating a favorable environment for Ohtani’s combination of power and speed upside.

At $6,500, Ohtani offers excellent value with a 2.03x multiplier and appears in 12% of optimal lineups despite an expected ownership north of 21%. His consistent volume and elite run-scoring opportunities justify the chalk here. While ownership is elevated, his multi-category contributions—power, speed, and plate appearances—make him a reliable core option in tournaments looking for both floor and ceiling.

Honorable Mentions

• Salvador Perez ($3,400)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,900)

2B Plays

Top Play: Ketel Marte ($5,300)

Ketel Marte offers solid value at $5,300 against Colorado, a team that struggles to contain left-handed hitters in Coors Field. Batting leadoff for Arizona, he’s set for maximum plate appearances in a favorable run environment with an implied team total around 4.8 runs. Marte’s power upside is evident after back-to-back multi-homer games recently, and while his overall production has been streaky, the matchup and lineup spot give him consistent scoring opportunities.

Despite the high ownership at 13.6%, which is well above the field average, the chalk seems justified given his strong value (1.95x) and presence in over 11% of optimal lineups. His recent removal due to stiffness appears precautionary rather than a red flag, though playing time should be monitored as Arizona manages him carefully. Overall, Marte is a reliable GPP option when looking for leverage with upside against one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks.

Honorable Mentions

• Amed Rosario ($3,800)
• Hyeseong Kim ($2,400)

3B Plays

Top Play: Max Muncy ($3,100)

Max Muncy is priced at just $3,100 and continues to offer strong value, especially with his recent power surge. Facing the Angels, who have struggled to contain left-handed power this season, Muncy’s lefty bat and fifth spot in the Dodgers’ lineup set him up for solid run-scoring opportunities. His .207 average and .664 OPS aren’t eye-popping overall, but his nine RBIs over the last seven games show he’s driving in runs when it counts.

His 12.2% ownership is above the field average but justified given his recent production and affordable salary. The Dodgers’ implied total suggests a favorable offensive environment, and Muncy’s ability to rack up RBI and occasional homers makes him a safe floor play with upside in tournaments. At under $3.2K, he’s an easy inclusion for exposure to a potent offense without sacrificing salary elsewhere.

Honorable Mentions

• Jonathan India ($3,200)
• Amed Rosario ($3,800)

SS Plays

Top Play: CJ Abrams ($4,900)

CJ Abrams is coming off a strong stretch, hitting .441 with two homers and two steals over his last eight games. Batting leadoff for Washington gives him plenty of plate appearances, and his .927 OPS on the season shows he’s been productive beyond just speed. Tonight’s matchup at Baltimore is favorable, as the Orioles’ pitching staff has allowed a higher wOBA to left-handed hitters this year. Abrams’ power-speed combo makes him a solid value at $4,900 in a game where Washington’s implied total sits near 4.5 runs.

His ownership around 9.7% is elevated but reasonable given his recent form and lineup spot. Appearing in nearly 14% of optimal lineups signals that Abrams is recognized as a top value play tonight. While he carries some risk typical of young players, his combination of contact skills and upside in both power and steals justifies the chalk here. If you’re looking for leverage, there are cheaper options, but Abrams offers a strong floor with upside in a positive run environment.

Honorable Mentions

• Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,800)
• Willi Castro ($3,000)

OF Plays

Top Play: Kerry Carpenter ($4,200)

Kerry Carpenter offers strong value at $4,200, especially batting leadoff for Detroit against Toronto. He’s a left-handed hitter who has shown solid power with nine home runs this season and a .290 average over 137 plate appearances. Carpenter’s recent stretch includes multiple multi-hit games and extra-base hits, highlighting his ability to contribute both in scoring and RBI opportunities. The matchup is favorable as the Blue Jays’ right-handed pitching staff has allowed a .350 wOBA to lefties this year, and Comerica Park plays fairly neutral for power.

Carpenter’s 9.8% ownership reflects his appeal given the price and production upside, which aligns closely with his 10.2% optimal lineup presence. His spot atop Detroit’s order should secure plenty of plate appearances in a game environment where Detroit projects just under 4.5 runs but could see some volatility given Toronto’s bullpen inconsistencies. The chalk here seems justified for tournaments where you want leverage without sacrificing floor, as Carpenter combines a reasonable salary with consistent contact and moderate power potential.

Honorable Mentions

• Jonathan India ($3,200)
• James Outman ($2,100)

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