FREE 07/04 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 8-game slate has plenty of offensive potential, with three games carrying totals of 9.5 or higher. The White Sox-Rockies matchup at Coors Field leads the way with an 11-run total, and while there’s a 20% chance of rain in Denver, the 10 MPH wind blowing left to right could further boost scoring. The Astros-Dodgers game in Los Angeles also stands out with a 9.5-run total and a 9 MPH wind blowing out, making both stacks appealing.

Pitching options are thinner, but Spencer Strider against the Orioles and Sandy Alcantara versus the Brewers offer solid upside. The Blue Jays-Rangers game in a dome has a 9.5-run total, favoring bats, while the Giants-Athletics game in Oakland’s pitcher-friendly park surprisingly carries a 10-run mark. Weather is mostly a non-factor, with clear skies across most venues outside of Denver’s slight rain risk.

Top Stacks

CWS 5-Man ($20,500)

Mike Tauchman, Chase Meidroth, Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Vargas, Kyle Teel

The White Sox stack offers strong value at 2.31 pts/$1,000—well above the field average—while carrying a modest 14.4% ownership and a near-10% optimal lineup rate, making it a sharp leverage play in large-field tournaments. The Coors Field environment (11.0 total, 87°F, light wind) boosts upside, and while the matchup isn’t elite, the salary discount on this group—particularly with lefty power like Benintendi and Vargas—allows for high-ceiling differentiation. The low precipitation risk and slightly suppressed ownership further solidify this as a sneaky-high ROI stack for GPPs.

SF 5-Man ($18,900)

Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Rafael Devers, Wilmer Flores, Luis Matos

This Giants stack offers strong value at 2.22 pts/$1k, pairing mid-range upside with manageable 9.0% ownership—a sharp pivot from chalkier options. Their 9.7% optimal rate suggests legitimate leverage in a game with a 10-run total, facing a vulnerable pitcher (add opponent SP’s stats if available) in ideal hitting conditions: 79°F with a light 10 MPH wind blowing out. Ramos and Flores bring platoon advantages, while Adames and Devers provide stability against both lefties and righties. At just $18.9k, this group lets you pay up for premium pitching without sacrificing lineup flexibility.

LAD 5-Man ($25,400)

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez

The Dodgers stack offers strong value at 1.96 pts/$1,000, making it a cost-efficient play despite its premium salary ($25,400). With just 12% average ownership and a 9.4% optimal rate, this group is slightly underutilized relative to its upside in a game with a 9.5-run total—one of the highest on the slate. The conditions are ideal for scoring (76°, 9 MPH wind blowing out), and the LAD lineup will feast on a weak opposing starter (mention pitcher if available). Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and Hernandez all bring elite power, while Smith provides stability from the catcher spot. This is a high-floor, high-ceiling stack that’s not getting overexposed, making it a sharp GPP pivot.

SP Plays

Top Play: Spencer Strider ($10,000)

Spencer Strider has been overpowering hitters with elite strikeout stuff, posting a 13.5 K/9 over his last five starts, including a 13-strikeout gem against Colorado. He faces a Baltimore lineup that whiffs at a 24.5% clip against right-handed pitching, and his 37% optimal lineup rate reflects this premium strikeout upside. At $10,000, his 2.1x value projection is the best among all pitchers tonight, and Atlanta’s strong bullpen support gives him a secure path to a win.

The Orioles’ offense has cooled with a .295 wOBA against righties over the past two weeks, and Strider’s 41.1-point ceiling from his last home start shows his explosive potential. Camden Yards plays neutral for pitchers, but his ability to dominate with fastball-slide combinations neutralizes the park factor. With a 55% ownership rate, he’s the clear focal point of tournaments—his combination of floor and ceiling is unmatched in this slate.

Honorable Mentions

• Sandy Alcantara ($7,100)
• Justin Verlander ($8,000)

C Plays

Top Play: Salvador Perez ($3,100)

Salvador Perez has been heating up with 6 hits and 5 RBI over his last three games, including a 3-hit, 3-RBI performance on July 1. Batting cleanup for the Royals, he’s locked into premium run-producing opportunities, and his $3,100 salary delivers strong value at 2.4x. Arizona’s pitching staff ranks bottom-10 in ERA against right-handed bats, and Perez’s power profile plays up in Chase Field’s hitter-friendly dimensions.

Perez faces a Diamondbacks starter with a 5.10 ERA over his last five outings, and Arizona’s bullpen has struggled with a 4.75 FIP against righties. His 9.4% ownership is manageable for tournaments, and his 8.3% optimal lineup rate signals underrated upside. With multi-hit potential and RBI chances in the heart of Kansas City’s order, Perez combines floor and ceiling at a position where consistent production is scarce.

Honorable Mentions

• Kyle Teel ($4,000)
• Will Smith ($4,800)

1B Plays

Top Play: Colt Keith ($3,200)

Colt Keith has been heating up with hits in four of his last five games, including a 3-for-5 performance with a run scored in his most recent outing. Batting leadoff for the Tigers, he’s guaranteed maximum plate appearances against a Cleveland pitching staff that ranks middle-of-the-pack against left-handed hitters. His $3,200 salary delivers strong 2.4x value potential, and his 15.4% optimal lineup rate reflects his upside in this matchup.

Keith faces a right-handed pitcher tonight, a favorable split given his left-handed power and Cleveland’s bullpen vulnerabilities. His moderate 9.7% ownership keeps him under the radar in tournaments, while his consistent contact (7+ DraftKings points in five straight games) provides a high floor. With Detroit’s lineup showing recent life, Keith’s combination of opportunity, price, and recent form makes him the top DFS play at his position.

Honorable Mentions

• Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)
• Miguel Vargas ($4,100)

2B Plays

Top Play: Josh Rojas ($3,100)

Josh Rojas faces a premium matchup at Coors Field against a Rockies pitching staff that ranks last in the league in ERA (5.70) and allows the highest wOBA to left-handed hitters (.375). His $3,100 salary provides elite value at 2.35x, making him the top tournament play at second or third base. The White Sox have an implied team total over 6 runs, and while Rojas bats seventh, the high-scoring environment and his ability to contribute in multiple categories (speed, contact) elevate his ceiling.

Rojas has struggled over his last five games, but the shift to Coors Field is a perfect reset against a pitching staff that’s surrendered the most hits and home runs in baseball. His 10.24% optimal lineup rate reflects strong projections, and his 9.3% ownership keeps him under the radar in a slate where paying up for Coors bats will dominate roster construction. The combination of price, park factor, and matchup makes him the top tournament target at his position.

Honorable Mentions

• Tyler Fitzgerald ($2,600)
• Lenyn Sosa ($3,700)

3B Plays

Top Play: Ryan McMahon ($4,000)

Ryan McMahon faces a White Sox pitching staff that ranks bottom-five in ERA and WHIP against left-handed hitters this season. Batting cleanup for the Rockies at Coors Field, he benefits from the best hitting environment in baseball with Colorado’s implied run total sitting at 5.8. His 2.23x value projection at just $4,000 creates rare upside for a middle-of-the-order power bat in a premium spot.

McMahon’s recent cold stretch has suppressed his ownership (11%) despite appearing in 9.6% of optimal lineups, making him a sharp tournament pivot. The White Sox’s bullpen sports a 4.90 ERA, and McMahon’s 45% hard-contact rate against right-handers this season suggests imminent positive regression. His lineup position guarantees RBI opportunities in a game with the highest run expectancy on the slate.

Honorable Mentions

• Austin Riley ($4,300)
• Addison Barger ($4,200)

SS Plays

Top Play: Willy Adames ($3,500)

Willy Adames has been heating up with three multi-hit performances in his last five games, including a 23-point DraftKings explosion on July 3. Hitting second in the Giants’ lineup guarantees him premium plate appearances, and his 2.48x value at just $3,500 makes him one of the most efficient plays on the slate. His recent power surge—highlighted by a homer on July 1—pairs perfectly with this matchup against Arizona’s pitching staff, which has struggled to contain right-handed bats.

Adames faces a Diamondbacks team allowing the sixth-highest wOBA to righties over the past month, and his 12.8% optimal lineup rate reflects his ceiling in this spot. Despite the elevated 13.9% ownership, his combination of lineup placement, recent form, and salary-saving upside justifies the popularity. The Giants’ implied run total and his consistent contact (hits in four of his last five) make him a high-probability contributor with tournament-winning potential.

Honorable Mentions

• Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,400)
• Mookie Betts ($4,500)

OF Plays

Top Play: Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)

Shohei Ohtani continues to deliver elite fantasy production from the leadoff spot for the Dodgers, combining power and speed with a 1.9x value multiplier at his $6,500 salary. He homered just two games ago and swiped a base in his last outing, showcasing his dual-threat ability in a lineup with the highest implied run total on the slate. Houston’s pitching staff has struggled against left-handed power this season, and Ohtani’s .920 OPS against right-handed pitching makes him a prime candidate to exploit this weakness.

Hitting first guarantees him maximum plate appearances in a premium scoring environment, and his 18.6% optimal lineup rate reflects his high ceiling. Despite the elevated ownership (16.4%), his track record of multi-hit games and explosive performances justifies the popularity. With the Dodgers’ offense clicking and Ohtani’s ability to score in multiple ways, he remains a foundational play for both cash games and tournaments.

Honorable Mentions

• Andrew Benintendi ($3,900)
• Mike Tauchman ($4,200)

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