FREE 06/05 PGA Cheat Sheet: Top RBC Canadian Open Plays

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley for the RBC Canadian Open, a 7,389-yard par-70 layout hosting the event for the first time. With a full field of 149 golfers and an average salary of $7,094, DFS players face a balanced challenge in roster construction. The course features wide fairways and long par-4s, potentially favoring longer hitters, while the bentgrass/poa greens average 6,500 square feet.

Three players are projected for high ownership (20%+), creating a leverage opportunity for those willing to fade the crowd. However, the lack of strong value plays (12x+ value with a 50%+ cut rate) means finding salary relief will be crucial. Key stats to target include Strokes Gained: Approach, Driving Distance, and Proximity from 175+ yards. Let’s dive into our top plays for this slate.

Premium Plays ($10,000+)

Top Play: Rory McIlroy ($11,900)

Rory McIlroy comes into the RBC Canadian Open as a top-tier option, priced at $11,900. McIlroy has been a reliable performer with a make-cut percentage of 85.24%, providing a solid foundation for DFS lineups. His recent performance at the Truist Championship demonstrates his potential, where he finished second in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.

McIlroy’s optimal lineup percentage is 22.64%, suggesting a strong likelihood of him being a key contributor to winning teams. While his projected ownership is high at 38.72%, significantly above the field average of 4.0%, his value of 7.13x indicates he can still deliver a return on investment despite the elevated price. His tournament rank of 64 suggests potential for improvement and capitalizing on his strengths at this event.

Other Premium Options

• Corey Conners ($10,100, MakeCut: 80.7%, Own: 22.4%)
• Ludvig Aberg ($10,500, MakeCut: 78.2%, Own: 19.4%)

Mid-Range Plays ($8,000-$9,999)

Top Play: Shane Lowry ($9,900)

Shane Lowry, priced at $9900, is a top recommendation for the RBC Canadian Open, showcasing a strong statistical profile that aligns well with tournament expectations. Lowry has been a consistent performer, reflected in his 78.4% make-cut rate. His recent form includes a T2 finish at the Truist Championship and a T23 at the Memorial Tournament, where he led the field in GIR and ranked third in SG: Approach.

Lowry’s value of 7.37x suggests a high potential return on investment, further supported by an Optimal Lineup Percentage of 19.7%. Despite a high projected ownership of 21.2%, significantly above the field average of 4.0%, his consistent performance and ability to contend position him favorably. His Tournament Rank of 47 suggests he is a reliable option for DFS lineups this week.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Keith Mitchell ($9,100, MakeCut: 71.2%, Own: 14.5%)
• Taylor Pendrith ($9,600, MakeCut: 74.8%, Own: 19.4%)

Value Plays ($7,000-$7,999)

First Value Play: Alex Smalley ($7,600)

Alex Smalley enters the RBC Canadian Open as a compelling DFS option at a salary of $7,600. Smalley has been a consistent performer, evidenced by his 65.4% make-cut rate, suggesting a strong likelihood of playing all four rounds. His recent T5 finish at the Myrtle Beach Classic demonstrates his current form and ability to contend. He also got into the PGA Championship, demonstrating his improving status on tour.

Smalley’s statistical profile supports his inclusion in DFS lineups, with a value of 8.14 and an optimal lineup percentage of 10.3%. His tournament rank of 8 indicates a high probability of a strong finish, while his projected ownership of 10.8% suggests he is a popular, yet not overly owned, choice. He finished T14 at The PLAYERS Championship, further solidifying his ability to navigate challenging courses.

Second Value Play: Matti Schmid ($7,500)

Matti Schmid, priced at $7500, presents a compelling option for DFS lineups at the RBC Canadian Open. Schmid has been gaining strokes on approach in eight consecutive measured events, showcasing a consistent strength that could prove valuable on this course. Schmid also boasts a solid 60.1% make-cut percentage, providing a degree of safety for DFS players seeking reliable performers.

Schmid’s recent second-place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge demonstrates his potential for high-end results. With a tournament rank of 2 and an optimal lineup percentage of 13.4%, the data suggests that Schmid has a strong chance of delivering significant value at this price point. While his ownership is projected at 9.2%, a moderate level above the field average, his value of 7.97x suggests that he could outperform his salary, making him a worthwhile selection for this tournament.

Other Value Options

• Ryo Hisatsune ($7,600, MakeCut: 65.0%, Own: 10.7%)
• Davis Riley ($7,900, MakeCut: 65.3%, Own: 11.3%)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!