FREE 07/24 PGA Cheat Sheet: Top 3M Open Plays

The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities features a 150-player field with scoring potential but plenty of risk, as the course combines wide fairways and reachable greens with water hazards that lead to high double-bogey rates. The field lacks top-tier talent, with Maverick McNealy and Sam Burns leading the upper pricing tier, while roster construction is complicated by the absence of strong value plays—no sub-$7,000 options project for 12x value with a 50%+ make-cut rate.

Pricing is tight, with an average salary of $7,030 and three players projected for 20%+ ownership, making differentiation critical. Recent winners have relied on a balance of distance off the tee and strong approach play, with birdie-fest potential if winds stay light. Let’s dive into our top plays for this slate.

Premium Plays ($10,000+)

Top Play: Sam Burns ($10,500)

Sam Burns arrives at the 3M Open with a game that should thrive at TPC Twin Cities, where his blend of elite iron play and birdie-making ability has yielded strong results—a T7 and two other top-32 finishes in three prior starts. Despite a shaky short game at The Open (losing 2.33 strokes around the greens), his 27th-ranked approach play at Royal Portrush underscores the ball-striking consistency that keeps him reliable: he’s made 85% of cuts this season and sits 22nd in FedExCup points. The forgiving fairways here mitigate his occasional wayward drives, and if his putter heats up—historically his streakiest club—he could contend given his comfort on these bentgrass greens.

Recent form tells a tale of near-misses and late stumbles, like his U.S. Open collapse from the 54-hole lead, but Burns’ volatility also hints at upside. He’s one of the slate’s most popular picks for good reason—his ability to pile up birdies aligns perfectly with this low-scoring layout, and his 18% optimal lineup rate shows he’s delivered when it counts. The key will be scrambling efficiency; when he saves par consistently (as he did en route to that T7 here in 2022), he’s a nightmare for the field. With ownership hovering near 25%, he’s a high-floor, high-ceiling play in a tournament where his aggression should pay off.

Other Premium Options

• Chris Gotterup ($10,000, MakeCut: 81.0%, Own: 21.8%)
• Maverick McNealy ($10,300, MakeCut: 82.5%, Own: 22.2%)

Mid-Range Plays ($8,000-$9,999)

Top Play: Michael Thorbjornsen ($8,500)

Michael Thorbjornsen’s recent T4 at the Rocket Classic was a statement—especially coming off a wrist injury that sidelined him since the PGA Championship. His four rounds in the 60s showcased elite touch around the greens (top-10 in SG: Around-the-Green) and a hot putter, critical for TPC Twin Cities’ large, undulating surfaces. With a 74% make-cut rate and a cash-game rank of 1, he’s as reliable as they come for weekend play, and his aggressive driving—ranking among the week’s longest—should thrive on this birdie-friendly layout.

The 23-year-old’s game fits this course like a glove. His elite scrambling and iron play (evident in his recent top-10 SG: Putting performance) will be key on a track demanding precision into soft bentgrass greens. Despite higher ownership than the field average, his form is too sharp to ignore—ranking eighth in the tournament projections. If his wrist holds up, expect another high finish where his all-around skills shine.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Taylor Pendrith ($9,400, MakeCut: 78.3%, Own: 17.6%)
• Kurt Kitayama ($8,700, MakeCut: 71.9%, Own: 15.0%)

Value Plays ($7,000-$7,999)

First Value Play: Vince Whaley ($7,700)

Vince Whaley arrives at the 3M Open riding a wave of late-season momentum, closing out 2024 with back-to-back top-10 finishes at the RSM Classic and Bermuda Championship. While his final-round struggles at Sea Island showed some vulnerability under pressure, his ability to gain strokes across all categories—particularly with his tidy iron play and above-average scrambling—suggests his game is rounding into form. The TPC Twin Cities layout, which rewards accuracy off the tee and mid-iron precision, suits his steady tee-to-green approach. With a make-cut rate hovering near 70% and an optimal lineup appearance rate pushing double digits, Whaley offers the weekend reliability DFS players covet.

Whaley’s balanced skill set should thrive on a course where avoiding big numbers is paramount. His recent top-5 in Bermuda showcased his ability to capitalize on scoring conditions, and while he doesn’t overpower courses, his knack for finding greens (ranked 4th in this field for tournament viability) keeps him in contention. The 9% ownership reflects just enough buzz to matter without becoming chalk—a sweet spot for a player whose game fits TPC Twin Cities’ demand for consistency. If he can clean up his occasional front-nine stumbles, Whaley’s floor-and-ceiling combo makes him a compelling mid-tier option.

Second Value Play: Matti Schmid ($7,300)

Matti Schmid arrives at the 3M Open with a quietly impressive track record at TPC Twin Cities, having logged top-20 finishes the past two years. His game suits this layout—long off the tee (he ranked top-5 in driving distance at The Open) and solid on approach, which plays well on a course where scoring opportunities abound for those who can attack from the fairway. While his putting has been shaky—losing over two strokes on the greens at Royal Portrush—his iron play and scrambling have kept him competitive, evidenced by his 63.7% make-cut rate this season.

Despite a middling 69th at The Open, Schmid’s underlying stats were encouraging, including ranking 13th in strokes gained off-the-tee. The 3M Open’s forgiving setup should mitigate his occasional putting woes, and his ownership hovering around the field average makes him a sneaky pivot. With a knack for finding weekends and a game that fits this course’s demands, Schmid offers a balanced blend of floor and upside for DFS lineups.

Other Value Options

• Kevin Roy ($7,300, MakeCut: 64.0%, Own: 10.5%)
• Patrick Fishburn ($7,500, MakeCut: 65.9%, Own: 6.4%)

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