FREE 06/17 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a jam-packed 12-game slate tonight, and right off the bat, the total in Houston versus Oakland jumps out with a juicy 11 runs. San Diego at the Dodgers also looks promising with a 10-run total, suggesting some offensive fireworks out west. Keep an eye on Baltimore at Tampa Bay, with a 9.5 total and wind blowing out, and the Yankees-Angels matchup carrying a 9-run total.

However, weather is definitely a concern in several spots. We’ve got potential delays or even rainouts looming in Cincinnati, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Chicago (both games), and Chicago. The New York game looks mostly clear, but it’s cloudy so it may affect the ball travel. Make sure you’re checking those forecasts closer to lock, because those conditions could really impact our pitching and hitting plays tonight.

Top Stacks

LAD 5-Man ($27,400)

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez

The Dodgers stack, headlined by Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman, presents a compelling value at 1.83 points per thousand. While their collective $27,400 salary demands a commitment, the low 7.5% average ownership across the field is too intriguing to ignore, especially considering their 8.5% optimal rate. With a 10-run total and the wind blowing out in Los Angeles, the conditions are ripe for offensive fireworks, making this high-upside stack an attractive contrarian play.

NYY 5-Man ($24,000)

Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr.

This Yankees stack, headlined by Dominguez, Judge, Bellinger, Stanton, and Chisholm Jr., presents solid value at 2.00 points per thousand. While the ownership hovers around 9.3%, the optimal rate is a shade lower at 8.3%, suggesting a slightly contrarian angle. The high 9.0 game total in a hitter-friendly environment, with a slight breeze blowing out to left field, further boosts their potential. This stack is in a prime spot to outperform their expected ownership, making them an appealing GPP target.

HOU 5-Man ($19,600)

Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz

Houston presents an intriguing contrarian stack tonight. At 2.33 points per thousand dollars, the value is solid, especially considering the generous 11-run total. While the 6.7% optimal rate suggests some risk, the relatively low 11% average ownership makes them a compelling GPP option. With clear skies and a slight breeze blowing in, the hitting environment is still favorable enough, and I’m betting this lineup, with a mix of power and contact, exceeds expectations at this ownership.

SP Plays

Top Play: Will Warren ($7,500)

Will Warren presents significant upside at a $7500 price point, boasting a 2.36x value projection. His recent outing against Kansas City showcases his ability to limit damage, pitching 5.2 innings of scoreless ball with 4 strikeouts. Warren’s demonstrated strikeout potential, highlighted by his 10 K performance against Texas, provides a solid floor with tournament-winning upside against the Angels.

Warren’s optimal lineup percentage of 20.62% reflects his potential to be a key contributor, despite an expected ownership of 37.0%. He gets a favorable matchup against an Angels team that he already faced earlier this season. Warren’s ability to generate strikeouts and limit runs makes him a compelling option.

Honorable Mentions

• Bryan Woo ($9,500)
• Jack Leiter ($6,900)

C Plays

Top Play: Edgar Quero ($2,500)

Edgar Quero bats cleanup today, offering tremendous upside at his $2500 price point. He’s shown flashes of brilliance recently, highlighted by a 13-DK point performance on June 12th where he tallied 3 hits and 2 RBI. As a left-handed batter, he’s positioned to take advantage of any potential weaknesses in the Cardinals’ pitching approach.

Quero’s value is undeniable, projecting at 2.8x, and his optimal lineup appearance rate of 5.8% suggests he’s a key piece for tournament success. While his ownership is projected at a reasonable 5.9%, slightly above the field average, his potential to outperform makes him a worthwhile investment in GPPs.

Honorable Mentions

• Yainer Diaz ($3,300)
• Ryan Jeffers ($3,600)

1B Plays

Top Play: Nick Kurtz ($2,800)

Nick Kurtz is on a power surge, going deep six times in his last 11 games and driving in 13 runs during that stretch. He’s fresh off a walk-off two-run homer against Houston, showing he thrives in clutch situations. At only $2800, his recent production offers 2.69x value, making him a high-upside play at a low price point.

Kurtz faces Houston again, and as a left-handed batter, he has the platoon advantage. Hitting 6th in the Athletics lineup puts him in a good spot to drive in runs. Despite moderate ownership, he lands in almost 10% of optimal lineups, signaling significant potential for a big night.

Honorable Mentions

• Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)
• Christian Walker ($3,400)

2B Plays

Top Play: Jose Altuve ($4,000)

Jose Altuve hits in the heart of the Astros order and comes off a monster game where he homered and drove in a run against this same Athletics team. He’s priced at a very reasonable $4000, which allows roster flexibility while still providing exposure to a potent Houston offense. Altuve is projected for strong 2.35x value and sees himself in nearly 10% of optimal lineups, signaling his upside in this matchup.

Altuve’s recent production shows his potential, with two of his last five games exceeding 20 DK points, fueled by home runs and RBIs. Batting third, Altuve maximizes his plate appearances, and as a right-handed batter, he is in a favorable position to take advantage of the Athletics pitching. Despite projected high ownership, his tournament rank of 1 makes him a priority play.

Honorable Mentions

• Willi Castro ($3,400)
• Brandon Lowe ($4,400)

3B Plays

Top Play: Max Muncy ($3,900)

Max Muncy is in a prime position to exceed value at his $3900 price point. He bats 6th for the Dodgers and faces a favorable matchup against the Padres, offering significant run-producing potential. Muncy already demonstrated his upside in this series, recording 16 DK points on Sunday with a hit, run, and 2 RBIs, including a stolen base.

Muncy’s optimal lineup percentage sits at a strong 11.5%, indicating significant potential for a high-scoring performance. Despite this, his projected ownership is only 7.7%, creating an opportunity to roster a player with a high ceiling at below-average ownership. His recent performances of 16 and 8 DK points showcase his ability to deliver tournament-winning upside, making him an excellent play.

Honorable Mentions

• Miguel Vargas ($3,000)
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand ($3,100)

SS Plays

Top Play: Mookie Betts ($5,000)

Mookie Betts continues to provide consistent production from the top of the Dodgers lineup, and he’s in a prime spot to exceed value tonight. He bats second for a Dodgers team projected to score plenty of runs, and his ability to contribute in multiple categories (as seen by his steal last night) gives him a solid floor. At $5000, he provides 1.9x value, making him a strong play at shortstop.

Betts’ moderate 7.4% ownership makes him an attractive tournament option, especially given his 12.1% optimal lineup appearance rate. He faces the Padres, and his position in the heart of the Dodgers’ order guarantees ample opportunities to drive in runs. His recent game logs show he’s been consistently getting on base, and that run-scoring potential is magnified in this matchup.

Honorable Mentions

• Gunnar Henderson ($4,900)
• Jeremy Pena ($4,600)

OF Plays

Top Play: Jasson Dominguez ($3,700)

Jasson Dominguez gets the leadoff spot tonight, a huge boost to his fantasy outlook at this price. He faces the Angels, and hitting atop the Yankees lineup maximizes his plate appearances and run-scoring opportunities. At $3700, he provides strong value, projected to exceed 2x, and his presence in over 11% of optimal lineups signals significant upside.

Dominguez’s recent placement in the leadoff role demonstrates the team’s confidence in him. As a left-handed batter, he can exploit potential matchups against right-handed pitching. His moderate ownership (8.5%) suggests he’s a strategic differentiator in tournaments, offering a chance to gain leverage on the field.

Honorable Mentions

• Luis Robert Jr. ($3,700)
• Lawrence Butler ($4,500)

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