FREE 06/18 MLB Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got an 11-game slate on tap tonight, but the weather is definitely going to be a factor. Several games are showing a high probability of delays or outright rainouts, specifically MIN/CIN and STL/CWS, and MIL/CHC. We’re also watching LAA/NYY and BAL/TB closely for potential delays, so keep an eye on those forecasts as lock approaches.

Ignoring the weather headaches for a moment, LAA/NYY, HOU/OAK and SD/LAD are currently tied for the highest total at 9.5 runs, while ARI/TOR and BAL/TB aren’t far behind at 9. NYM/ATL is interesting with a lower total of 8.5 and wind blowing out, which could boost offensive production. CLE/SF also has wind blowing out but has a lower total of 8.0.

Top Stacks

LAD 5-Man ($26,900)

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez

The Dodgers stack, headlined by Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman, presents intriguing leverage at a $26,900 price tag. While their 1.84 value score is solid, the real appeal lies in the ownership discount; they’re projected at only 7.6% despite an 8.6% optimal rate, suggesting they’re slightly under-owned relative to their ceiling. With a juicy 9.5 game total and the wind blowing out in warm conditions, this stack should be in a prime spot to exceed value, and the field seems to be overlooking that potential.

KC 5-Man ($20,600)

Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez

The Royals stack presents a compelling value at 2.16 points per $1000, especially when we consider the sub-9% average ownership. While the optimal rate aligns closely with the ownership, indicating efficiency, the dome environment eliminates any weather concerns, solidifying their floor. Given the implied team total in an 8-run game, this stack offers leverage at a reasonable cost, making them a strong tournament play.

NYY 5-Man ($24,500)

Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Jazz Chisholm Jr.

This Yankees stack, headlined by Judge and Bellinger, presents intriguing leverage despite the elevated 9.5 game total. At 2.0 points per $1000, the value is there, especially when you consider the moderate 9.7% average ownership. While their 7.4% optimal rate suggests some risk, the weather forecast introduces a potential wrinkle. The chance of a delay or even a rainout could depress ownership further, and if this lineup gets a full game against their opponent, they have the potential to drastically exceed their optimal rate.

SP Plays

Top Play: Chris Sale ($10,700)

Chris Sale continues to demonstrate elite strikeout ability, averaging over 10 K/9 in his last five starts. He’s consistently pitching deep into games, going at least six innings in each of those outings and allowing no more than one earned run. His recent dominance translates to a strong 1.96x value, making him a top tournament option.

Sale faces the Mets tonight, a team that struggles against left-handed pitching, and his 18.06% optimal lineup appearance indicates significant upside. While his ownership is high at 36.86%, his potential to deliver a slate-breaking performance justifies the investment, especially given his recent 35.5 DK point performance against Milwaukee where he notched 11 strikeouts.

Honorable Mentions

• Taj Bradley ($7,400)
• Kris Bubic ($9,500)

C Plays

Top Play: Salvador Perez ($3,400)

Salvador Perez is coming off a monster game where he went 3-for-4 with two home runs and four RBIs against this very same Texas team. He’s hitting in the heart of the Royals’ order from the 5th spot, which gives him ample opportunity to drive in runs. At just $3400, he provides strong value with a 2.4x return, making him affordable in all formats.

Perez’s recent outburst demonstrates his immense upside, and the matchup against Texas clearly suits his power stroke. He’s projected to be in 8.2% of optimal lineups and, despite the higher-than-average 9.9% ownership, he remains a top tournament play. His dual eligibility at 1B/C provides lineup flexibility as well.

Honorable Mentions

• Yainer Diaz ($3,600)
• Logan O’Hoppe ($3,500)

1B Plays

Top Play: Shohei Ohtani ($6,500)

Ohtani hits atop a potent Dodgers lineup and faces the Padres tonight, offering a strong value at his $6500 price. His recent production includes a 34-point DK performance on June 14th fueled by two home runs and two RBIs, demonstrating his immense upside. He’s projected to be in 16.4% of optimal lineups, signaling his potential to be a slate-breaker.

Ohtani’s dual eligibility (1B/OF) provides roster flexibility, and his 1st spot in the batting order maximizes his plate appearances. Even with a recent 2-point game, his overall profile points to significant potential for a bounce-back performance against San Diego, making him a prime target for tournament play.

Honorable Mentions

• Christian Walker ($3,800)
• Willson Contreras ($3,900)

2B Plays

Top Play: Jonathan India ($3,400)

Jonathan India bats leadoff tonight against the Rangers, putting him in a prime position to score runs. His $3400 salary offers excellent value, projecting at 2.45x, and he’s featured in over 11% of optimal lineups. As a right-handed batter, he should see favorable matchups in this game.

India is expected to be a popular play at just over 11% ownership, indicating the field recognizes his potential in this matchup. He offers a solid floor with upside, given his position atop the order and the potential for multiple plate appearances against Texas. His value and optimal lineup appearance make him a top tournament target.

Honorable Mentions

• Brendan Donovan ($4,000)
• Jose Altuve ($4,200)

3B Plays

Top Play: Junior Caminero ($4,200)

Junior Caminero is locked into the 3rd spot in the Rays’ lineup, providing him with a premium opportunity to drive in runs. He’s swinging a hot bat, demonstrated by his multi-hit games in two of his last three contests against Baltimore. His power potential is evident, and at his $4200 price point, he offers significant upside, projecting for 2x value.

Caminero faces a favorable matchup that he can exploit, and his moderate 5.5% projected ownership makes him an ideal GPP target. He appears in nearly 11% of optimal lineups, signaling the strong tournament potential he brings to the table. His recent production, combined with his advantageous lineup position, makes him a top play at third base.

Honorable Mentions

• Jordan Westburg ($3,900)
• Eugenio Suarez ($4,600)

SS Plays

Top Play: Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,400)

Bobby Witt Jr. is locked in at the plate, demonstrated by his recent performance including a home run and two runs scored against this same Texas team. He bats second in the Royals’ lineup, maximizing his opportunities for plate appearances and run production. His $5400 salary provides excellent value, projected at 2.16x, making him a top tournament play.

Witt’s power and speed combination always provides a high ceiling, and today’s matchup in Texas offers significant offensive potential. He’s projected to be in over 11% of optimal lineups, signaling his high probability of delivering a strong fantasy performance. Despite the high ownership, his potential to exceed value makes him a worthwhile investment.

Honorable Mentions

• Xander Bogaerts ($3,100)
• Carlos Correa ($3,700)

OF Plays

Top Play: Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,100)

Fernando Tatis Jr. is locked in, demonstrated by his 29-point performance just two games ago, fueled by 4 hits, 3 runs, and a steal. He’s hitting leadoff for the Padres, guaranteeing maximum plate appearances, and his recent production suggests he’s seeing the ball well despite the tough matchup against the Dodgers. His $5100 salary offers 2.3x value, making him a strong play in tournaments.

Tatis Jr.'s high ownership (15.3%) reflects the field’s confidence in his upside, and his 16.2% optimal lineup appearance further validates his potential. Even facing a challenging pitching staff in Los Angeles, his ability to contribute across multiple categories – runs, hits, and steals – makes him a worthwhile investment. His recent stat lines, including multiple multi-hit games, showcase his consistent ability to generate fantasy points.

Honorable Mentions

• Trent Grisham ($4,000)
• Aaron Judge ($6,600)

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