FREE 01/20 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Our 5-game slate for today’s NBA DFS is brimming with promising opportunities that you won’t want to miss out on. While all games offer their unique flavor, we absolutely need to spotlight a couple that hold real promise for some unprecedented point totals. Both the face-off between Atlanta and the New York Knicks and the Phoenix against Cleveland showdown have got an impressively high total of 236.5.

Game Environment Analysis

DET @ HOU (O/U: 223.0, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: DET (18th) vs HOU (17th)
• Off Eff: DET (19th) vs HOU (14th)
• Def Eff: DET (18th) vs HOU (2nd)

MIN @ MEM (O/U: 236.0, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: MIN (26th) vs MEM (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIN (16th) vs MEM (5th)
• Def Eff: MIN (7th) vs MEM (5th)

ATL @ NYK (O/U: 236.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: ATL (3rd) vs NYK (28th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ATL (17th) vs NYK (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: ATL (16th) vs NYK (20th)

PHX @ CLE (O/U: 236.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: PHX (23rd) vs CLE (6th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: PHX (6th) vs CLE (1st) 🔥
• Def Eff: PHX (24th) vs CLE (10th)

BOS @ GSW (O/U: 224.0, Spread: 10.0)

• Pace: BOS (24th) vs GSW (14th)
• Off Eff: BOS (3rd) vs GSW (20th)
• Def Eff: BOS (6th) vs GSW (9th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jalen Brunson ($8,900)

Jalen Brunson has been on an incredible run recently, successfully headlining the New York Knicks’ offense with his relentless scoring. Averaging over 25 points in the past five games, primarily due to an aggressive shot volume, Brunson has been the man to watch. His ability to maintain a consistent output is promising, especially as he gets set to face Atlanta. The Hawks aren’t particularly known for their defensive prowess against point guards, which sets up a favorable matchup for Brunson.

Brunson’s DraftKings projection of 48.66 points coupled with a tournament rank of 4 points towards a significant potential for output in tonight’s game. His boom potential at 32.5% suggests an excellent chance for him to exceed his average. His value rating stands strong at 5.47x, suggesting he could provide excellent value for his $8900 salary. Predicted to appear in over 25.18% of optimal lineups and with an ownership of 32.06%, Brunson is a popular pick, and for a good reason. His recent performances have demonstrated what he’s capable of, and I believe he’s well-positioned for another strong showing tonight against the Hawks.

More PG Plays:

• Darius Garland ($7,400)
• Donovan Mitchell ($8,300)
• Trae Young ($9,800)

SG - Anthony Edwards ($9,100)

Tonight, Anthony Edwards appears as a promising pick in DFS. He’s been in terrific form lately, finishing with at least 20 points in eight of his past nine games, and registering fantastic DraftKings outputs of 44.3 points, 65.3 points, 44.5 points and 66.0 points in his four previous matches. A matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies might seem daunting, given their sixth-ranked defense, but Edwards is not the player to shy away from tough competitions. He’s showing a boom percentage of 26.37%, and given his 1.26 fantasy points per minute (FPPM), this means there’s a decent chance he could significantly exceed his value.

What’s more intriguing is that Anthony Edwards’ salary of $9,100 seems well justified given his recent performance and the heavy ball-handling responsibilities he’s been carrying. His second position in the Hero GPP Rank and impressive value rating of 5.27x make him a fitting choice over other potential competitors. Even though he is projected to be about 28.3% owned, his strong consistency and ability to perform well under pressure contribute to his position in 24.54% of optimal lineups. The projected DK points for Edwards are also an encouraging 48.0. These factors make Anthony look like a solid asset in tonight’s lineup.

More SG Plays:

• Max Strus ($3,800)
• Buddy Hield ($4,700)
• Donovan Mitchell ($8,300)

SF - Jayson Tatum ($10,000)

Jayson Tatum’s salary of $10,000 despite his statistical strengths suggests an enticing scenario for DFS players. Going in his favor is an impressive FPPM of 1.35 along with a robust projected score of 48.8 DK points. This paints a promising picture for the player heading into his matchup with Golden State Warriors, who have been known to allow ambitious performances from the opposing packs. While his recent few games haven’t been his best, the overarching point to note here is his consistent production of substantial fantasy points regardless of the shooting performance.

The other facet to consider here is Tatum’s hero GPP rank, standing steady at number 4. Tatum’s 19.1% boom potential also indicates that he has a relatively solid chance of outperforming his value on any given night. A key stat to consider about Tatum is his consistent presence in 17.2% of optimal lineups; this positioning indicates that he clearly has potential for high-scoring games. He also comes with a tempting own% of 15.01%, a figure that could very well rise given his upcoming match-up. Overall, Tatum is a player whose performance tonight could certainly reward DFS players handsomely.

More SF Plays:

• Max Strus ($3,800)
• Buddy Hield ($4,700)
• Jaden McDaniels ($4,500)

PF - Santi Aldama ($4,900)

Santi Aldama appears to be in a prime spot for tonight’s game against Minnesota. Valued at $4,900, Aldama might be a bit under the radar given his recent production - he’s coming off some strong performances, including a season-high 29 points in his last outing. Although he’s coming off the bench, Aldama has managed to score in double digits in four of his last five games, harnessing the matchup against second units to his advantage. His “Boom Potential” at 29.9% also bolsters his fantasy allure, suggesting that he could significantly outperform his price point.

To add to the intrigue, Minnesota’s defense has struggled against power forwards, providing a solid platform for Aldama to continue his scoring exploits. He’s projected to churn out 29.2 DraftKings points and with a value rating sailing at 6.0x, he could potentially deliver an idyllic ROI. His Fantasy Points Per Minute (FPPM) is at 1.08, indicating that every minute he’s on the court offers significant promise. With an expected ownership percentage of 28.8%, Aldama may not be the most unique pick, but given his projected optimal lineup inclusion at 27.4%, he deserves consideration in your lineup tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Julius Randle ($7,500)
• Naz Reid ($5,000)
• Josh Hart ($7,900)

C - Jarrett Allen ($6,600)

Despite a dip in minutes in the recent fixture against OKC, Allen has made his presence felt by achieving double-digit points in his tenth straight game. Blessed with a sizzling form, he averages 17.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, and a shooting average of 77.7 percent. It also helps to have Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland assisting in the backcourt and Evan Mobley stretching the play, giving Allen ample opportunities for successful plays around the basket.

Allen’s DFS stats for tonight’s matchup against PHX look promising. With a solid projection of 39.74 DK points and his recent form backing him up, he is situated favorably for a decent haul. His boom potential, aka the likelihood of exceeding his projected points, stands at an impressive 37.52 percent, and he appears in a substantial 30.9% of optimal lineups. With a strong value rating at 6.02x to his reasonable salary of $6,600, he’s expected to offer excellent value once again tonight. I believe Allen’s role is key in delivering optimal performance in this match up.

More C Plays:

• Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700)
• Julius Randle ($7,500)
• Alperen Sengun ($9,300)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!