FREE 1/21 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’re looking at a tidy five-game slate for NBA DFS tonight, with the first tip-off set for 07:30 PM ET and the nightcap game scheduled to start at 10:30 PM ET. There’s an interesting mix of games on tap, but the ones that really catch our eye are the high-total matchups: Philadelphia taking on Denver at 10:00 PM ET (231.0 total) and Washington squaring off against Los Angeles Lakers at 10:30 PM ET (228.5 total).

These games promise a fast pace and potential for high scoring, which should translate into some great DFS opportunities. It’s always intriguing to see how players from these high-total games perform - will they live up to expectations or will they crumble under pressure? Whatever the case may be, we’re in for an exciting night of basketball action. With that in mind… Our January 21 Starting Five is now LIVE!

Game Environment Analysis

POR @ MIA (O/U: 219.0, Spread: -10.0)

• Pace: POR (13th) vs MIA (25th)
• Off Eff: POR (27th) vs MIA (14th)
• Def Eff: POR (27th) 🎯 vs MIA (12th)

NYK @ BKN (O/U: 219.5, Spread: 12.0)

• Pace: NYK (28th) vs BKN (27th)
• Off Eff: NYK (2nd) 🔥 vs BKN (26th)
• Def Eff: NYK (20th) vs BKN (26th) 🎯

ORL @ TOR (O/U: 212.5, Spread: 1.5)

• Pace: ORL (30th) vs TOR (11th)
• Off Eff: ORL (29th) vs TOR (23rd)
• Def Eff: ORL (3rd) vs TOR (28th) 🎯

PHI @ DEN (O/U: 231.0, Spread: -12.5)

• Pace: PHI (29th) vs DEN (5th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: PHI (24th) vs DEN (4th) 🔥
• Def Eff: PHI (19th) vs DEN (14th)

WAS @ LAL (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -13.0)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs LAL (22nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs LAL (12th)
• Def Eff: WAS (30th) 🎯 vs LAL (23rd)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Jamal Murray ($7,400)

The Nuggets’ Jamal Murray is in a solid position for tonight’s game against the 76ers. With a salary of $7,400 and projected to score 37.6 DK points, Murray presents strong value at 5.1x. He ranks fourth in the Hero GPP Rank and has an optimal% of 19.08%, signifying his potential to perform well tonight. His recent performances have been impressive too; he scored game-high 30 points with eight assists and seven rebounds in their win over the Heat, earning him a whopping 59.8 DK points.

There are, however, a couple of things to watch out for. Firstly, Murray is currently dealing with left calf tightness but is expected to play in tonight’s game. Secondly, his ownership percentage stands at 19.52%, which means that his high performance might not give you as much leverage since many DFS players will also likely have him on their rosters. Despite these considerations, based on his recent form and the match-up against the 76ers who are not particularly formidable against PG/SGs, Jamal Murray seems like a promising choice for your lineup tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Jalen Brunson ($9,000)
• Russell Westbrook ($6,400)
• Cole Anthony ($6,500)

SG - Paul George ($8,100)

Despite being listed as questionable due to a groin issue, if Paul George suits up against the Nuggets, he’s primed for another strong performance. George has been a force on the court recently, scoring over 40 DK points in three of his last five games. Even with a potential injury concern, his FPPM of 1.14 and projection of over 40 DK points provides solid value for an $8100 salary. The matchup against Denver, who aren’t the best defensive team, also plays into George’s favor.

It’s worth noting that George shows up in over 25% of optimal lineups which indicates he is expected to perform well tonight. His projected ownership of around 19% means he won’t be overly popular and could provide some leverage in tournaments. However, this all hinges on his health status before game time. If he’s given the green light, considering his recent form and the game environment against Denver, George could be a pivotal player in your NBA DFS lineup tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Cole Anthony ($6,500)
• Tyler Herro ($8,300)
• Mikal Bridges ($6,200)

SF - Josh Hart ($7,900)

Josh Hart has been consistently proving his worth in recent games, making him a solid pick for today’s matchup against Brooklyn. Despite nursing a neck injury, he managed to put up 14 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals in 37 minutes against the Hawks. His performance is not just about scoring; it’s also about his ability to contribute across multiple categories. He’s expected to play a hefty chunk of minutes tonight, and with a game total of 115.5, there should be plenty of opportunities for him to rack up DFS points.

Hart’s $7900 price tag may seem steep at first glance but considering his consistent output and high potential for tonight’s game, it appears more than justified. He ranks first in tournament play and is projected to score over 37 DK points - showing strong value at 4.71x. Despite his recent performances, he is only expected to be owned by around 9.8% of lineups, which could provide some nice leverage in tournaments if he performs as expected or better. Remember though that DFS always carries risk – yet given his recent form and tonight’s matchup, Hart seems well-positioned to deliver a robust performance.

More SF Plays:

• Scottie Barnes ($8,500)
• RJ Barrett ($7,700)
• Mikal Bridges ($6,200)

PF - LeBron James ($9,800)

LeBron James is going up against the Wizards tonight and he’s been on a hot streak recently. He’s been consistently scoring over 45 DK points in his last five games, with his peak performance reaching 55.8 DK points. His average FPPM is 1.54, so he’s definitely bringing value to your lineup. The matchup with the Wizards could further boost his numbers as they’re not known for their strong defense.

The King comes at a pretty steep price of $9,800 but given his consistent high-scoring performances and his projected score of 52.38 DK points tonight, it’s a worthy investment. However, keep in mind that he’s expected to be owned by about 31% of players tonight - you won’t get much leverage here if you’re looking for lower ownership plays. But LeBron has always proven himself to be worth every penny and tonight should be no exception.

More PF Plays:

• Paolo Banchero ($8,600)
• Kyle Kuzma ($6,000)
• Alexandre Sarr ($5,500)

C - Nikola Jokic ($12,000)

Nikola Jokic is an absolute beast on the court, and his matchup against Philadelphia makes him a tempting pick for your NBA DFS lineup. His projection of 63.53 DK points is pretty impressive, especially when you consider that he’s been consistently hitting and even surpassing this mark in recent games. With an FPPM of 1.76 and a boom percentage of 31.4%, there’s a high chance that Jokic will provide significant value to your lineup if he continues to perform at his current level.

What stands out about Jokic is not just his ability to score, but also his all-around game. He’s been recording triple-doubles regularly, indicating that he’s contributing in multiple areas on the court - scoring, rebounding, and assisting. The fact that he’s expected to play around 36 minutes suggests ample opportunity for him to rack up those fantasy points. Just remember that with an ownership rate of 27.5%, you won’t be the only one eyeing Jokic in tonight’s slate. But given his strong performance and key role in Denver’s offense, it seems like a risk worth taking.

More C Plays:

• Anthony Davis ($10,300)
• Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,900)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!